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  • #7,721
  • Jun 28, 2012 3:29am Jun 28, 2012 3:29am
Quoting Wqiang
Hi,

What is a 'pop gun"candlestick pattern ?

I managed to catch it due to TDI cross below on the first red candle plus it cant break the 1.2520 level.

look for an Inside Bar, follow by an Outside Bar ...

I see you catch that sell setup.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,722
  • Jun 29, 2012 12:42am Jun 29, 2012 12:42am
after this morning huge move, I stand aside for the rest of today.

Have a Great Weekend everyone!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,723
  • Jun 29, 2012 1:54am Jun 29, 2012 1:54am
Quoting emmanuel7788
after this morning huge move, I stand aside for the rest of today.

Have a Great Weekend everyone!
Yeah I was wondering how to handle it after a move like that ... Sitting aside sounds like a wise move ... Wish you a great weekend and thanks for your continued posts!
1 pip at a time ... if the entries are strong, the rest will follow ...
  • #7,724
  • Jun 29, 2012 2:14am Jun 29, 2012 2:14am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Take a closer look at EU H1 TF. (use a clean shart)

see what you make out of week 24 and now week 26...
also look at week 23...
remember one of my posts ...there is mentioned 1.2520.

Many traders are building up position target 1.300
I have a Fib on 1 May high and 1 June low, giving me a .0382 retracement to 1.2670, and .50 retracement to 1.26870.

I have d1 double top at 1.2747.

Both daily and weekly look like current movements are retracements heading for further downward movements, in the longer term, but I think that the Bullish retracement will continue to the .0382 fib area before we see further downward movement.

But dont follow me, I am not a Guru !!!

Emmanuel... your comments please.
"It always seems impossible until it is done" Nelson Mandela
  • #7,725
  • Jun 29, 2012 2:23am Jun 29, 2012 2:23am
E/U - The BIG move in Asian trading is looking like it is running out of steam, H1 has given 4 inside bars, and I am looking for a direction change, TDI is plus 60 and looking Overbought.

I will be looking for the Bears to come in during London, or USA sessions, so may short this if I get a good TDI cross down from this level.

However today is Friday, there is some News expected from the Eurozone and CARE is indicated
"It always seems impossible until it is done" Nelson Mandela
  • #7,726
  • Jun 29, 2012 3:13am Jun 29, 2012 3:13am
Quoting Rhino101
I have a Fib on 1 May high and 1 June low, giving me a .0382 retracement to 1.2670, and .50 retracement to 1.26870.

I have d1 double top at 1.2747.

Both daily and weekly look like current movements are retracements heading for further downward movements, in the longer term, but I think that the Bullish retracement will continue to the .0382 fib area before we see further downward movement.

But dont follow me, I am not a Guru !!!

Emmanuel... your comments please.

Hi Rhino,

I am not Guru too, don't take me serious what I say.
I have the same fibo drawn. I see move up to 38%, 50% and even to 61.8% but that will take many weeks.

Since the dip from week 18 to 22, the market looks like making a 3-wave correction. We are in wave 3, and it will be very choppy way up and with some wide price swings. This will mean some good short term trading which I love.

With some personal interest in Germany, I would like the EU to recover some ground. If we see positive half-year data out of Germany and France, then it will be good for support the move up.

Just for some fun yesterday, I posted this chart on another thread.

Have a Good Weekend.

Pröst!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU trade idea 28-6-2012.jpg Size: 190 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,727
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:09am Jun 29, 2012 9:09am
Quoting emmanuel7788
after this morning huge move, I stand aside for the rest of today.

Have a Great Weekend everyone!
Can't help but wonder, is your stand aside for the day due to:

  1. you have actually researched historically that big Asian moves can lead to erratic pa in the London/US session (most interested if its this)
  2. gut feel
  3. Euro news
  4. quarter/half year end
  5. combo of the above

Cheers

  • #7,728
  • Jun 29, 2012 10:53am Jun 29, 2012 10:53am
Quoting Vantage
Can't help but wonder, is your stand aside for the day due to:

  1. you have actually researched historically that big Asian moves can lead to erratic pa in the London/US session (most interested if its this)
  2. gut feel
  3. Euro news
  4. quarter/half year end
  5. combo of the above

Cheers

Hi Vantage,

Sorry I should have made myself clear that I was only referring to EURUSD H1.

It is a mix of various reasons. I am not overly concern when the Asian session is very volatile that the London session will be erratic. I think every trading day is unique and depends on the economic events of the week and macroeconomics.
Today is an exception because it is Friday and month end closing. I had plan to close all open positions before NYO. The EU summit result news was in my mind, but there was a bothering rumour coming out of Tokyo early morning here.

Just when Tokyo open, I actually place a pending order for EU @1.2455 trading breakout of the two H4 IB setups.

But I remove the pending order on that rumour and bang the next hour that huge move. I then focus to manage my other open trades.

For EURUSD, just before LO, I saw that the only best thing to do is to look for buy on retracement type entry. But then when I read the weekly range, it was already +220pips and with the recent 10-weeks average range of 260pips, I did not see enough room for profit planning unless we have a deep 50% retracement.

And when I looked at all major pairs, obviously something unusual just happened. There was a well coordinated action against USD and JPY. Who can do this? ...only the central banks. This makes trading more difficult with the weekend in view.

On top of all these, it has been a very hectic trading week for me testing another system live. Watching the Euro football every night from 2am to 5am local time here also a cause for exhaustion.

Anyway, this has been a good week and month end closing.

Wish you a Great Weekend.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,729
  • Jun 30, 2012 1:54am Jun 30, 2012 1:54am
Quoting emmanuel7788

It is a mix of various reasons.
Thanks.

To take up one point you made. Whilst every day is different there are certain things (eg LO head fake, avoid small 1hr candles pre/early US session that are counter trend reversals, Lon close reversal etc etc) that happen so frequently that to go against them is such a low % trade it isn't worth it.

Those examples are some of my faves, there are loads of FF traders that have their own researched (and thats the key word) things that repeat. Thats how you get a method, its then up to the individual to ensure they eyeball enough charts (in uptrend, downtrend and sideways market) to take a method and ensure that it works for them.

An example of what I mean. Recently someone here (sorry I haven't gone back to check your name ) posted that his back tests showed 7/8 CT trades failed so he was leaving a CT set up. Thats great, if that odd CT moves works you don't worry as you are confident that it is the minority.

On the other side of this a person on another (pretty good trend method) thread posted a failed trend trade after a decent run down entered in the Lon close time frame. It of course failed as they had the idea but not the back testing of what happens and when ie Lon close did its trade mark reversal.

I wish they had a jumping off soap box icon I'll make do with .

Thanks again E for your on-going contributions.

Cheers

PS this post was in no way directed at you I'm pretty sure you've got this stuff down nicely.
  • #7,730
  • Jul 1, 2012 9:35pm Jul 1, 2012 9:35pm
EU week 27

After a strong bullish rally last Friday, I am sure market will correct itself to a ‘realistic’ level. It will be choppy days ahead with some good intraday trading.

Technically, I see a retracement of last week high-low … to 50% 1.2550 and even 61% 1.2520 *** . Today opening saw a plunge from fib 38% of week 18-22…. Repeat of prev week.

It will be correction days or ranging market condition on H4 TF.

Intraday CT trade are good opportunities with sufficient wide D range of 100 pips to play with.

H4 short term swings , I will wait for a good high probability breakout type setup.

It is a new week, and new Q3.

Have Good Trading week to ALL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Week 27 2 July 2-7-2012 10-29-19 AM.png Size: 41 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,731
  • Jul 2, 2012 5:10am Jul 2, 2012 5:10am
Hi,

Enter this trade using M15 TF. There was a price pullback from the Asian session high.
This is attempt to trade a retracement of the Friday rally.

regards,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD week 27 H1 2 July trade 2-7-2012 6-04-22 PM.png Size: 31 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,732
  • Jul 2, 2012 7:32am Jul 2, 2012 7:32am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Enter this trade using M15 TF. There was a price pullback from the Asian session high.
This is attempt to trade a retracement of the Friday rally.

regards,
Trade partial exit +51pips., BE remaining pos.

H4 looks good to hold this trade.

Anyone else in this trade?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD week 27 H1 2 Jul 2-7-2012 8-24-25 PM.png Size: 29 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,733
  • Jul 3, 2012 4:06am Jul 3, 2012 4:06am
Very quiet here.
What is happening guys?
No one has anything you want to share here.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,734
  • Jul 3, 2012 4:13am Jul 3, 2012 4:13am
if you have time you can watch this video.
found this in another FF thread.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=4uItNovNvIM
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,735
  • Jul 3, 2012 4:23am Jul 3, 2012 4:23am
hi emma, guess everyone has fallen aslp from the range market
  • #7,736
  • Jul 3, 2012 4:31am Jul 3, 2012 4:31am
Quoting Fxaddicts
hi emma, guess everyone has fallen aslp from the range market

expected ranging market... EU yestreday D range 102 pips so still can catch 50~60% of that....no need to look for 100pips trades.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,737
  • Jul 3, 2012 8:35pm Jul 3, 2012 8:35pm
hi all,

i was wondering is this a valid setup?

hope to receive inputs from fellow traders to oncrease my confidence level.

thanks,
wqiang
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 3 July H1.jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #7,738
  • Edited Jul 4, 2012 4:37am Jul 3, 2012 8:54pm | Edited Jul 4, 2012 4:37am
Quoting Wqiang
hi all,

i was wondering is this a valid setup?

hope to receive inputs from fellow traders to oncrease my confidence level.

thanks,
wqiang

Hi wqiang,


just some quick thoughts becasue I have to rush for an appointment now.

yes, there is support at 50% Fib-r of last Friday rally. And also since the move in the moring did not push lower that fib-r 127% of Monday H-L, I saw that H1 setup with APB and TDI cross.

That setup if caught on time would have been 30 ~ 40pips ...not bad for ranging market or market in consolidation.

But I was in my earlier trade since prev day so I see this as an invalidation so I tighten my stop and get out. Will post my chart later when I get back online.

Today and tomorrow will be the trading days for this week. Keep you eyes on setups, clear your mental bias thoughts and start afresh.

The week raneg of 250 to 300 pips must be in your mind.

Good Trading!



Edit: just to add my chart.
Edit 2 : correctio 250 to 300 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 2 Jul trade closed 4-7-2012 9-57-19 AM.png Size: 57 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,739
  • Jul 3, 2012 11:21pm Jul 3, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
anyone caught that H1 setup?
'pop gun' setup at 1.2520...

quite a beauty!
Hi Emma,

I know this has been from last week but it keeps popping in my mind. After the pop gun setup price dives down 100 pips and a day later it pops back up 175 pips.

Based on your experience with the setup, is this typical behaviour of a pop gun setup or last week was an exception?

Thinking of a toy pop gun, can we assume after the big move price usually just return to where the setup is?
  • #7,740
  • Edited 12:06am Jul 4, 2012 12:05am | Edited 12:06am
Hi,

Tokyo just finish their sushi time.

what I see since this morning is GU will pop anytime soon.

just keep lookout for your S3 setups ....

Good Trading!

Edit: Today is 4th July .... US holidays!!!!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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