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  • #663,741
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:04am Jul 2, 2012 2:04am
Also the rise of commodity ETF's over the past 20 years resulted in a massive influx of money from long-only funds hedging with commodities indexes...which in turn take that money and buy a basket of the underlying commodities... artificially propping up the price of things like OIL.

That's why we don't calculate inflation that way anymore. That and the fact that Oil can fall 25% in six weeks, making it a bad measure of the real economy and a good measure of risk-on/off sentiment. I agree with most of what gold bugs (Zerohege, Rick Santelli... etc.) have to say, except on the monetary point. We live in a fiat world, and it's here to stay.

Why attach the growth of business to the quantity and value of a shiny metal/rock? That is about the stupidest, most out dated thing someone could say. What's next, the world is still flat?

Rocks don't earn a return, man. Back to the drawing board..
  • #663,742
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:10am Jul 2, 2012 2:10am
Quoting laffin2bank
Also the rise of commodity ETF's over the past 20 years resulted in a massive influx of money from long-only funds hedging with commodities indexes...which in turn take that money and buy a basket of the underlying commodities... artificially propping up the price of things like OIL.

That's why we don't calculate inflation that way anymore. That and the fact that Oil can fall 25% in six weeks, making it a bad measure of the real economy and a good measure of risk-on/off sentiment. I agree with most of what gold bugs (Zerohege, Rick Santelli......
Yeah- the negative real interest rates of treasuries are SO much better. I guess theres no point in arguing with you about growth- you obviously view price hikes as signs of growth and fresh money infused by the government into the economy that erodes savings as superior to the prudent rational investments of those savers. Yup- buying shiny bombs with new inflationary money or giving it away to deadbeats is SO much better that the savers wasting it in prudent productive investment...
  • #663,743
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:11am Jul 2, 2012 2:11am
Quoting MaxDoom
looks like I need another 4 month break from FF.

you may have noticed that the number of viewers and contributions has dramatically reduced in the last 3 weeks.

and the contributions have become less than rubbish on the most part with just random calling out of long short or it is doomed or otherwise just not even about trading....

it is after all an interactive trading forum for the E$ and normally I put my analysis up in the morning and get some feedback. All last week and again today nothing.....

what does all that tell me, none of...
or just that sometimes i find this forum a waste of time, i scroll around a bit looking for an interesting post, something to learn but i find absolutly nothing...
  • #663,744
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:12am Jul 2, 2012 2:12am
Quoting SpacyTrader
I believe this is the first thing you said that I can agree with. Indeed: there is no reason to assume the US gov. will ever default on its debts when it can instead go the way of the Wiemar Republic, Zimbabwe, revolutionary america, revolutionary France, the Roman Empire and every other state with no respect for the purchasing power of its slaves... err- citizens.
The simple fact of the matter is that inflation is tied to prices, not the quantity of money, and we are in a deflationary, recessionary environment where most citizens are broke and have very little purchasing power.

Milton Friedman was DEAD WRONG about the transmission mechanism, ALL THAT QE DOES IS INCREASE BANK RESERVES. RESERVES DO NOT TRANSLATE TO THE REAL ECONOMY UNLESS BANKS LOAN...AND THEY DIDN'T...IF THEY DID THEN QE WOULD HAVE WORKED!!!! AND WE'D HAVE SOME INFLATION!! BUT IT DIDNT, AND WE DONT! (UNFORTUNATELY)

Thus, companies--who are in control of production and setting prices--cannot raise prices in an environment where people do not have more money. It's pretty much just common sense. Has the price of toilet paper gone up dramatically in the past 5 years? Food? Oil? fucking dish soap?

The answer is a resounding NO, regardless of where you look.
  • #663,745
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:13am Jul 2, 2012 2:13am
why don't you two f* off to another forum
  • #663,746
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:13am Jul 2, 2012 2:13am
Quoting Raziha
or just that sometimes i find this forum a waste of time, i scroll around a bit looking for an interesting post, something to learn but i find absolutly nothing...
We're discussing monetary economics, completely relevant to trading EUR/USD. If you can't see that then GTFO you amateur.
  • #663,747
  • Edited 2:16am Jul 2, 2012 2:14am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting SpacyTrader
I guess theres no point in arguing with you
My conclusion exactly. I'm sure he paid a pretty penny for his mis-education, but it isn't my place to correct what others have corrupted. He is entitled to his own views, as wrong as they may be.... its just sad his vote cancels out mine.
  • #663,748
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:14am Jul 2, 2012 2:14am
Quoting laffin2bank
We're discussing monetary economics, completely relevant to trading EUR/USD. If you can't see that then GTFO you amateur.
That kind of talk is not welcome here.
  • #663,749
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:14am Jul 2, 2012 2:14am
Quoting laffin2bank
We're discussing monetary economics, completely relevant to trading EUR/USD. If you can't see that then GTFO you amateur.
not the forum for what you are discussing
  • #663,750
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:15am Jul 2, 2012 2:15am
Quoting MaxDoom
looks like I need another 4 month break from FF.

you may have noticed that the number of viewers and contributions has dramatically reduced in the last 3 weeks.

and the contributions have become less than rubbish on the most part with just random calling out of long short or it is doomed or otherwise just not even about trading....

it is after all an interactive trading forum for the E$ and normally I put my analysis up in the morning and get some feedback. All last week and again today nothing.....

what does all that tell me,...
I know what you mean. I have posted my charts and analysis and have received no responses. I am not as advanced as many with Gann or Fib analysis, but I figured other traders would converse or share ideas or analysis. Oh well.
  • #663,751
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:16am Jul 2, 2012 2:16am
Quoting Crassius
My conclusion exactly. I'm sure he paid a pretty penny for his mis-education, but it isn't my place to correct what others have corrupted. His is entitled to his own views, as wrong as they may be.... its just said his vote cancels out mine.
http://pragcap.com/understand-the-mo...onetary-system

It's sad that people like you have a vote at all.. you clearly have absolute no understanding of how monetary systems operate whatsoever.
  • #663,752
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:16am Jul 2, 2012 2:16am
Quoting pip_trader
I know what you mean. I have posted my charts and analysis and have received no responses. I am not as advanced as many with Gann or Fib analysis, but I figured other traders would converse or share ideas or analysis. Oh well.
Put your money under the mattress if you think Gann & Fib's are the secret sauce to making money in the currency market.
  • #663,753
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:16am Jul 2, 2012 2:16am
Quoting laffin2bank
We're discussing monetary economics, completely relevant to trading EUR/USD. If you can't see that then GTFO you amateur.
"monetary economics" "completely relevant" "trading EUR/USD" I C
To Your Success!!
  • #663,754
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:17am Jul 2, 2012 2:17am
Quoting laffin2bank
The simple fact of the matter is that inflation is tied to prices, not the quantity of money, and we are in a deflationary, recessionary environment where most citizens are broke and have very little purchasing power.

Milton Friedman was DEAD WRONG about the transmission mechanism, ALL THAT QE DOES IS INCREASE BANK RESERVES. RESERVES DO NOT TRANSLATE TO THE REAL ECONOMY UNLESS BANKS LOAN...AND THEY DIDN'T...IF THEY DID THEN QE WOULD HAVE WORKED!!!! AND WE'D HAVE SOME INFLATION!! BUT IT DIDNT, AND WE DONT! (UNFORTUNATELY)

Thus, companies--who...
The questionably bit about inflation not being monetary aside: your reasoning is perfect. Perfect that is if you view the US in a vacuum where there are no other countries that can drive up the price of things. Too bad for that little flaw in your reasoning heh ? Just because US consumers can no longer afford the same quantity of goods doesn't mean prices need to come down to accommodate them when rising middle classes in China and elsewhere are hungry for more.
  • #663,755
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:18am Jul 2, 2012 2:18am
Quoting laffin2bank
Put your money under the mattress if you think Gann & Fib's are the secret sauce to making money in the currency market.

congratualtions in only 38 posts you have ruined a thread

read the title and take your preaching elsewhere
  • #663,756
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:19am Jul 2, 2012 2:19am
  • #663,757
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:20am Jul 2, 2012 2:20am
Quoting Esssex
5 bucks says this thread is going to turn into another all out flame war when some other economics major practicing another school of economics comes in.
Right on the money. Kind of forgot the other age old war between the techies and fundies.
  • #663,758
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:21am Jul 2, 2012 2:21am
Quoting laffin2bank
Also the rise of commodity ETF's over the past 20 years resulted in a massive influx of money from long-only funds hedging with commodities indexes...which in turn take that money and buy a basket of the underlying commodities... artificially propping up the price of things like OIL.

That's why we don't calculate inflation that way anymore. That and the fact that Oil can fall 25% in six weeks, making it a bad measure of the real economy and a good measure of risk-on/off sentiment. I agree with most of what gold bugs (Zerohege, Rick Santelli......
careful what u wish for. Remember productivity drivig growth involves labour which seems to be lacking in the latest expansions of money supply. Inflation targeting was a fed mechanism created to try to dig out. may or may not work but doesnt takr an economist to see whats wrong with the picture. Sometimes keepig it simple opens ur eyes to the truth. End of day we are humans and hindsight is 20 20. When someone is greedy they dont care what will happen to their grandchildrens children. Hey i had my cake and ate it too who cares about u.
  • #663,759
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:26am Jul 2, 2012 2:26am
I come back for some votes ! Could any trader can share it for me ?
Think Different
  • #663,760
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:26am Jul 2, 2012 2:26am
Quoting MaxDoom
why don't you two f* off to another forum
We miss 100% of the shots we don't take
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