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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #40,721
  • Jul 1, 2012 4:10pm Jul 1, 2012 4:10pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hey everybody!

I have been reading and enjoying everybody's posts this past week! I haven't traded as I have been waiting for the dust to settle from the EU summit. It really could have gone either way and I didn't want to get caught going in the wrong direction.

Anyways, I'll be looking for support around 1.28 area before entering in. Probably going to wait for the ECB rate. Curious though, it seems that the rate cut is expected so shouldn't it be priced in during this weeks trading?

PT, quick question for you my friend. I...
Hey 100Pips. I was wondering what happened to you. Now I see you weren't saying much coz you were stuffing your face with popcorn

To be perfectly honest, I didn't learn position trading at all. What I did learn about was F/A in all it's aspects from monetary policy to trader & investor psychology. That in itself was all I needed in order to draw the bigger picture and trade in the indicated direction. I am not a P/A expert and I will not pretend to be. It would be nice to get my entries precisely on the dot but I'm just not that anal about it. As long as I know which train I should be on (northbound or southbound), which station I board the train is not that important to me as long as I feel fairly confident there's still lots of train track left in the line

The link you provided is an excellent website for a no-nonsense down and dirty explanation of pure price action. I've skimmed through it and it seems to have lots to offer. I may just give it a good read this week.

I don't know of any specific sites that can teach you what I have learned over the years. I have had many sources of instruction, but the single most important and rewarding one was myself... glued to the computer and CNBC TV. The second most important was my mentor who was an economics professor. Unfortunately he passed away in 2007 so I didn't manage to get the full benefit of his wisdom. However he did get me off to a good start.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,722
  • Jul 1, 2012 4:52pm Jul 1, 2012 4:52pm
I am a little perplexed as to whether or not the market is actually preparing for the fact that ECB may not cut the rates by 25bps like most analysts are expecting.

Could we therefore possibly hit the 61 fib on the monthly before this plummets once more?
  • #40,723
  • Jul 1, 2012 5:28pm Jul 1, 2012 5:28pm
Quoting Unknownpips
I am a little perplexed as to whether or not the market is actually preparing for the fact that ECB may not cut the rates by 25bps like most analysts are expecting.

Could we therefore possibly hit the 61 fib on the monthly before this plummets once more?
There are many factors at play here. On Friday the market covered shorts on what the EU summit accomplished (or didn't in my opinion). Now the after effect still has to be played out. Also, as I mentioned in my latest E/U update, a rate cut may actually be initially bullish for this pair as such a move may give the market a boost of confidence that the ECB is doing something to help. Mind you, eventually as the Euro carry trade unwinds, the net effect will be Euro bearish.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,724
  • Jul 1, 2012 6:20pm Jul 1, 2012 6:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Last week I made some comments about how Malta (and some other EU nations) would have many reservations about allowing Brussels to dictate, control or supervise certain fiscal or financial services policies. Well, here's just one of them coming out of the woodwork now. Coincidentally, Malta seems to be the first one to jump up and cry foul. Malta is the smallest economy inside the EU and therefore has more to lose with such a scheme. Historically, Malta enjoyed a protectionist economy and amassed billions in foreign currency and gold reserves. (The...
A heart and brainwarming saga of what must happen, and time is short.
  • #40,725
  • Jul 1, 2012 7:06pm Jul 1, 2012 7:06pm
Hi,
This is my view of E/U pair,
looking like E/U is testing the -0.272 Fib ext (dancing around that fib) before heading down to -0.618 fib ext on the weekly. Fib drawn based on first drop from 1.49389. Last destination is 1.20483

Thanks PT and everyone for making this thread awesome
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  • #40,726
  • Edited Jul 2, 2012 1:38am Jul 1, 2012 7:30pm | Edited Jul 2, 2012 1:38am
deleted
  • #40,727
  • Jul 1, 2012 9:27pm Jul 1, 2012 9:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey 100Pips. I was wondering what happened to you. Now I see you weren't saying much coz you were stuffing your face with popcorn

To be perfectly honest, I didn't learn position trading at all. What I did learn about was F/A in all it's aspects from monetary policy to trader & investor psychology. That in itself was all I needed in order to draw the bigger picture and trade in the indicated direction. I am not a P/A expert and I will not pretend to be. It would be nice to get my entries precisely on the dot but I'm just not that anal about...

Thanks PT for the response! HaHa...yea, too much popcorn and not enough trading. Sometimes its good to sit back and put together a game plan. Especially when the market is ranging the way it has been for the past 2 weeks.

I'm going to read through the site I posted and soak it all in. I like the concept of position trading. Doesn't require being glued to the computer screen all day! Also, my G, H, and Enter keys are still broken so it is a B!tch using my on screen keyboard! LOL
  • #40,728
  • Jul 1, 2012 10:14pm Jul 1, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Thanks PT for the response! HaHa...yea, too much popcorn and not enough trading. Sometimes its good to sit back and put together a game plan. Especially when the market is ranging the way it has been for the past 2 weeks.

I'm going to read through the site I posted and soak it all in. I like the concept of position trading. Doesn't require being glued to the computer screen all day! Also, my G, H, and Enter keys are still broken so it is a B!tch using my on screen keyboard! LOL
oh good, you've been practising spelling over the past week
For some reason you were missing Gs, Hs, and paragraph breaks all over the place before
  • #40,729
  • Jul 1, 2012 10:52pm Jul 1, 2012 10:52pm
Quoting D2tz
oh good, you've been practising spelling over the past week
For some reason you were missing Gs, Hs, and paragraph breaks all over the place before
LOL, I wasn't sure if anybody else noticed!
  • #40,730
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:20am Jul 2, 2012 1:20am
Hey guys

Not much new to report here

Basically just watching the EU like usual

Expecting it to remain rangebound so Ill have my "channel trader" hat on.

Looking to buy at confirmed rejection of the 1.2502-1.2520 area
Looking to SELL at the 1.2695- 1.2735 area


Ill look to scale into these positions and TP at +50 on each one or so using minimal leverage and risk due to current market conditions this week. i.e The market awaiting the ECB/BOE/NFP numbers and information. We can see how much of the ECB rate cut is already priced in. I expect anything more than 25 basis points and we will see fireworks, especially if NFPs come in over 90K.

Have a good session everyone
  • #40,731
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:24am Jul 2, 2012 1:24am
Quoting Wulfgar
Hey guys

Not much new to report here

Basically just watching the EU like usual

Expecting it to remain rangebound so Ill have my "channel trader" hat on.

Looking to buy at confirmed rejection of the 1.2502-1.2520 area
Looking to SELL at the 1.2695- 1.2735 area


Ill look to scale into these positions and TP at +50 on each one or so using minimal leverage and risk due to current market conditions this week. i.e The market awaiting the ECB/BOE/NFP numbers and information. We can see how much of the ECB rate cut is already priced...
Hey Wulfgar! Looks like you have your game plan for the week. I believe youre right, we will be range bound until the end of the week, then we can resume trending! I'm going to hang tight probably until later this week. Happy Trading!
  • #40,732
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:26am Jul 2, 2012 1:26am
Good morning everyone.

I hope you all enjoyed your weekend.

Now that the market got to enjoy a nice drunkfest on hopium, it's time for the hang over. There has been mild profit taking across the board since Wellington opened last night and I suspect that trend may continue today. The reasons for my belief were outlined in my last weekend update posted on Saturday. Please read it so I don't have to retype it all again

What I failed to mention in my weekend update was the July 4 holiday in the US. Markets will be thin so it will either be a zombie market or there may be some exaggerated moves... very typical on "liquidity drain" days. So, be careful.

Not much else to add at this point. Today I will be heading out to enjoy some more sun and fresh air so I will only be around for the first part of the European session. I should return late in NY session... so please behave yourselves.

E/U H4
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,733
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:32am Jul 2, 2012 1:32am
Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
July 2, 2012 at 05:55 GMT

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2650/60 and 1.2690/00, bids 1.2600/10 sell stops through 1.2590 ahead of bids 1.2550/60

GBP/USD: Offers 1.5700/10, tech res 1.5745/50(200 day MA at 1.5750). Bids 1.5600/10 sell stops just below ahead of tech supp 1.5570/80, sell stops down through 1.5570 and 1.5550.

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8080/00, Bids 0.8055/60, tech supp 0.8010/15 (Fri lows) ahead of bids 0.7990/00, barriers below at 0.79.50 and 79.00, large sell stops through both

USD/JPY: Offers 79.90/00 from exporters, sovereigns, buy stops through 80.05 and 80.65, Bids 79.50/60 sell stops below, ahead better bids in the 79.00/30 region (talk of semi official interest). Sell stops through 79.00

EUR/JPY: Offers 101.10/25, bids 100.00/10, sell stops below

AUD/JPY: Tech supp 81.10/20, possible sell stops through 81.00 ahead of tech support around the 200 day MA at 80.85, Offers 81.90/00, buy stops through 82.00 and 82.80

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/50 buy stops through 1.2055

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0200/10, sell stops below ahead of tech support 1.0140/60, tech res above 1..0250/70 (200 day MA 1.0250), buy stops above

AUD/NZD: Bids 1.2720/30

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2333/45, tech supp 1.2320/25 and larger at 1.2280/85 (March 5 lows),

NZD/USD: Light bids 0.8000/10, tech support towards 200 day MA at 0.7945. Offers 0.8020/40
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,734
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:32am Jul 2, 2012 1:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning everyone.

I hope you all enjoyed your weekend.

Now that the market got to enjoy a nice drunkfest on hopium, it's time for the hang over. There has been mild profit taking across the board since Wellington opened last night and I suspect that trend may continue today. The reasons for my belief were outlined in my last weekend update posted on Saturday. Please read it so I don't have to retype it all again

What I failed to mention in my weekend...
Enjoy the sun and ocean PT! I took my family out to Sea Life Park today and watched the dolphin show and worked on my tan...I mean sunburn! Fun stuff!
  • #40,735
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:34am Jul 2, 2012 1:34am
Today's 14:00 GMT FX-Option expiries for Euro

1.2750
1.2700
1.2600
1.2550
1.2500
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,736
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:36am Jul 2, 2012 1:36am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Enjoy the sun and ocean PT! I took my family out to Sea Life Park today and watched the dolphin show and worked on my tan...I mean sunburn! Fun stuff!
Thanks 100Pips. Hopefully I won't get sunburned. I already have one from all my LCD panels
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,737
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:47am Jul 2, 2012 1:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
Thanks 100Pips. Hopefully I won't get sunburned. I already have one from all my LCD panels
LOL

Did I ever tell you that you're too much? (jk)
  • #40,738
  • Edited 2:51am Jul 2, 2012 2:18am | Edited 2:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
Thanks 100Pips. Hopefully I won't get sunburned. I already have one from all my LCD panels
!?

EDIT: hugh.. it took me 37 mins to realize the joke..
69
  • #40,739
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:53am Jul 2, 2012 2:53am
Good morning.

All has been said, lets wait for ECB on thursday.

I am a bit surprised, that Fridays excited reaction on summit evaporated? Maybe bulls got sober?

Since thursdays ECB meeting is very important event and many traders will be focusing on that moment, I think that till then, we are rangebound. For a bull to try to squeeze some shorts, we would need to close convincingly above 1.268. For a bear to roar, close below 1.24 would do. But, imo none of this will happen and we will be ranging between these two untill ECB press conference.

GL this week,

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,740
  • Jul 2, 2012 3:06am Jul 2, 2012 3:06am
Looking to had the 78,6 fib to my MT4 but can't work out how to do it.
Can someone help ?
Thank you
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