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  • #663,701
  • Jul 1, 2012 11:52pm Jul 1, 2012 11:52pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Maybe I know a tiny bit. I lived there for 46 years.
http://www.cfeps.org/pubs/wp/wp24.html

My niche community of economists predicted the European situation that's unraveling now back in 2003, seen in the link above. We have been confirmed right already. The script is written on the wall; print, and fast, or die. And even if you print, good luck centralizing democracy among heterogeneous peoples and coordinating fiscal and monetary policies from above in individual countries. This author also directly called the PIGS "the PIGS" in 2006, years before it caught on.

So your petty comments will remain just that. Pity that in 46 years of living there you never stepped out from under your rock, or picked up an introductory economics book, you dolt.
  • #663,702
  • Jul 1, 2012 11:58pm Jul 1, 2012 11:58pm
Quoting laffin2bank
http://www.cfeps.org/pubs/wp/wp24.html

My niche community of economists predicted the European situation that's unraveling now back in 2003, seen in the link above. We have been confirmed right already. The script is written on the wall; print, and fast, or die. And even if you print, good luck centralizing democracy among heterogeneous peoples and coordinating fiscal and monetary policies from above in individual countries. This author also directly called the PIGS "the PIGS" in 2006, years before it caught on.

So your petty...
if u dont mind can u please tell me what account size are u trading with all these insider info?
  • #663,703
  • Jul 2, 2012 12:11am Jul 2, 2012 12:11am
Quoting Crownprince
if u dont mind can u please tell me what account size are u trading with all these insider info?
Not insider really. I'm just an economist, and they're just nerds.

Pos: Short 70k EURUSD

(Used to be more when it was still in the 1.30-1.3450 range)


Tonight/Tomorrow's Orders:

1.2642 on 10k *filled (to cover)
1.2618 on 10k *filled (to cover)
1.2590 on 10,000 EUR/USD (to cover)
1.2560 on 10,000 EUR/USD (to cover)
1.2505 on 10,000 EUR/USD (to cover)
1.2350 on 10,000 EUR/USD (to cover)
1.2150 on 10,000 EUR/USD (to cover)
1.1805 on 20,000 EUR/USD (cover)

Flip every ~25-50. Meaning if I get filled on any covers, I will put in orders to resell that pos 25-50 pips higher, whatever looks logical on charts.


-10,000 EUR/USD @ 1.2642 (opening)
-10,000 EUR/USD @ 1.2668 (opening)
-20,000 EUR/USD @ 1.2695 (opening)

@/above 1.27, I will add to short dollar positions (long aussie, kiwi, even sterling) to hedge it off to 0.

-20,000 EUR/USD @ 1.2750
-40,000 EUR/USD @ 1.28
-60,000 EUR/USD @ 1.2850

If these levels are reached I will TP on hedges and begin getting outright short EUR/USD.
  • #663,704
  • Jul 2, 2012 12:13am Jul 2, 2012 12:13am
great you are a real trader now I will consider your word
  • #663,705
  • Jul 2, 2012 12:33am Jul 2, 2012 12:33am
Quoting laffin2bank
http://www.cfeps.org/pubs/wp/wp24.html

My niche community of economists predicted the European situation that's unraveling now back in 2003, seen in the link above. We have been confirmed right already. The script is written on the wall; print, and fast, or die. And even if you print, good luck centralizing democracy among heterogeneous peoples and coordinating fiscal and monetary policies from above in individual countries. This author also directly called the PIGS "the PIGS" in 2006, years before it caught on.

So your petty...
Umm how does that article proves anything. All it says is that previously economists thought the individual countries' bond yields would converge, but instead they diverged because of different liquidity and risk premiums. Big whoop we already know that.
  • #663,706
  • Jul 2, 2012 12:35am Jul 2, 2012 12:35am
Quoting laffin2bank
http://www.cfeps.org/pubs/wp/wp24.html

My niche community of economists predicted the European situation that's unraveling now back in 2003, seen in the link above. We have been confirmed right already. The script is written on the wall; print, and fast, or die. And even if you print, good luck centralizing democracy among heterogeneous peoples and coordinating fiscal and monetary policies from above in individual countries. This author also directly called the PIGS "the PIGS" in 2006, years before it caught on.

So your petty comments...

This was one of numerous report both prior, during and post initiation of the euro, these reports are old news bro, but certainly worthy of re reading.
Many of the faults identified have been remedied, however each remedial instrument has created even more problems,

is this data relevant today? perhaps, as the fields are continually changing, can the euro survive, personally I made my desicion about 4 years aga after the 08 melt down, that she was doomed and have traded her accordingly since, "but" forex allows profit to both buyer and seller,
so repsect your data imput, but not you attitude, there is no holy grail, many have gone broke, trying and or thinking they had it , so peace and trade safe.
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #663,707
  • Jul 2, 2012 12:37am Jul 2, 2012 12:37am
Quoting KiwiTrada
yup agreed. is not often get such a nice wee trade. 2619 is a fence needs break, before next push down,
Hi KiwiTrada! We have 1.252 as our first target(61.8fib) and second stands at 1.232.

take care
  • #663,708
  • Jul 2, 2012 12:37am Jul 2, 2012 12:37am
Quoting Crownprince
great you are a real trader now I will consider your word
Cool, one thing I got very wrong was timing. Thought they'd move it along by now and get back to their own currencies and deflate them until they can export cheaply and get growth going again...but they're foregoing democracy to be part of the Euro club so far... so be wary of that. It's going to be a slow process, but I think it will trade 1.18, then 1.00... then who knows. There will be a lot more fussing and fighting from the Eurocrats, I ultimately believe it will go to zero or else there will be civil war when some (for example) French Eurocrats are in control of mandating budgets, monetary and fiscal policies in non-French countries, and the Non-french countries (in this hypothetical example) refuse to abide.

I believe long euro is a huge risk bc at any given time it could gap down 500 points. You think it sounds crazy, I'm sure. If you're not leveraged, though..do you honestly think there's a huge difference between 1.26 to 1.00 and 1.21 to 1.00? If I was exchanging money for travel in a hurry I wouldn't think twice to pay up the 500 pips. If that were to happen, your stop would trigger at the next trade's lvl, bc it becomes a market order anywhere below the trigger price, and so potentially (if you're levered) put you in a situation where you're actually owing brokers money. Why absorb that kind of unprecedented headline risk?

Long euro today is like being long real estate in 2008.



Low volumes this week, so you never know if a big buyer will step in in US equities and prop the market up, dragging the EUR along. Beware all of the US economic data (unemployment) which can certainly stop this rally dead in its tracks, too, or send it soaring.

Going to bed!
  • #663,709
  • Jul 2, 2012 12:40am Jul 2, 2012 12:40am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/usds-demise

Don't get caught short with your pants down if the dollar tanks this week. AUSSIE. KIWI!
  • #663,710
  • Jul 2, 2012 12:42am Jul 2, 2012 12:42am
Quoting Paulenok
Hi KiwiTrada! We have 1.252 as our first target(61.8fib) and second stands at 1.232.

take care
hahahaha my targets lot lower, may take time but I targeting 1 2131 this is alltime mid, many fence along the way, but i only seeing down high tf,s
still waiting 2619 to go

I going out to dinner bbl
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #663,711
  • Jul 2, 2012 12:49am Jul 2, 2012 12:49am
Downside bias for the day still. Looking to sell some rallies.
  • #663,712
  • Jul 2, 2012 12:51am Jul 2, 2012 12:51am
see eur/usd going back to 1.28 by end of this week.
  • #663,713
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:00am Jul 2, 2012 1:00am
Quoting Esssex
Downside bias for the day still. Looking to sell some rallies.
Same, here have short from 1.2625
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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TRADE WHAT U SEE NOT WHAT U WANT TO SEE.
  • #663,714
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:04am Jul 2, 2012 1:04am
I will be looking to fade this hopium fueled rise on observed weakness as markets re-assess the initial euphoric rise after a weekend away from their screens.

Some big things were announced coming out of the summit, no doubt, but there remain steps that need to be taken for concrete action to take place... to give a foundation to the pretty words spoken Friday by the Pols.

Friday I wrote,

Quoting Crassius
.... at best what they have is a agreement to do something in the future after other things are accomplished first.....

Just waiting for market to swallow the truth and get off the euphoric high....
Spain gets no money until the details of the Memorandum of Understanding are worked out. To further the summit "deal", We need a bank overseer in place... that wont happen until before the end of the year. No ESM funds can be given to any banks before the bank overseer is in place... in 2013!!

Watch those Spanish Ten Year Yields for higher than 6.6% rates and Italian Ten years at higher than 6%.

Add to that the concensus that the ECB will cut rates this week by a quarter point, with both Citi-Bank and Goldman Sachs changing their forecast last week and advising clients to expect a rate cut, as I posted when the announcements happened.

Look for news and analysts to poo poo the "deal", and for the rally to fade as reality sinks in and the ECB rate cut becomes the focus for the week. It could go higher, but I'm not buying at these levels.... I'm looking for technical setup to trigger a new short.
  • #663,715
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:06am Jul 2, 2012 1:06am
Quoting KiwiTrada
This was one of numerous report both prior, during and post initiation of the euro, these reports are old news bro, but certainly worthy of re reading.
Many of the faults identified have been remedied, however each remedial instrument has created even more problems,

is this data relevant today? perhaps, as the fields are continually changing, can the euro survive, personally I made my desicion about 4 years aga after the 08 melt down, that she was doomed and have traded her accordingly since, "but" forex allows profit to both buyer...
Haha sorry for the confusion man. I was arguing with some guy before, idk why, and just proving that the branch of economics I was taught in college and subscribe to still today (Modern Monetary Theory--Hyman Minsky) have been all over this Euro thing for quite some time..NOT that this article is still entirely relevant.


If I am a gov't and you are a citizen, I must first ISSUE money before you can ever pay me taxes, yes? Yes. That is a huge step if you can just go from there...

Ideas are simple. Government spending CREATES WEALTH, taxes and bond issues DESTROY WEALTH (Because the US Gov has no use for its own IOU's ($USD), it literally destroys them...if you take a trip to the New York Federal Reserve, you can go on a tour for $25 and they show you where they literally shred the cash that people used to pay taxes.) Think about it, it created these dollars out of thin air. European nations are currency USERS, like households and businesses. The USA is a currency ISSUER, or sole creator and enforcer of $USD.

What's the difference?

European countries must save, tax or go into debt to spend. US just issues. Oh, we have a bond payment due? Well Good thing its to be paid in $USD, which we can just ISSUE. We've been doing this since 1971, so will all of you Austrians out there please tell me where the inflation is? I'm pretty sure we're more worried about deflation...

Furthermore, any Euros Germany saves by definition must come from other Euro nations. Who else has euros? If anyone but european countries, they ultimately GOT them from European countries, and can only redeem them for exchange from european countries (If you exchange with your bank, they exchange with your central bank who in turn exchange with the ECB.) Thus, like I said, any profits in Germany are by definition losses elsewhere in Europe.

The ECB does not furnish an elastic currency like the Fed does...and there is no political will to do so. So, the system is doomed.. maybe they don't even know it yet. But their plans, while a step in the right direction, aren't even really in the ballpark.
  • #663,716
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:09am Jul 2, 2012 1:09am
anyone tell me how you get your pics of charts? I only know how to do screenshots
  • #663,717
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:10am Jul 2, 2012 1:10am
Quoting laffin2bank
anyone tell me how you get your pics of charts? I only know how to do screenshots
screen shot is not bad
  • #663,718
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:15am Jul 2, 2012 1:15am
Quoting laffin2bank
anyone tell me how you get your pics of charts? I only know how to do screenshots
right click & save as picture
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #663,719
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:16am Jul 2, 2012 1:16am
morning all,

so from my posts over the last couple of weeks you will be aware that I have been suggesting that there would be a continued correction to the upside for a while now. After last weeks big move here is what I see...

Daily:
Still in correction of 1.328x to 1.228x fall. So far a simple ABC pattern has emerged and we are on wave C.
Target cluster of 1.284x to 1.290x. Should at least exceed the peek of wave A at 1.274x.
Becomes invalid if 1.240x gives out.
Correction remains active until 1.228x or 1.328x breached.

Hourly: today this conflicts due to the large rise at the end of last week, we should expect some retracement.
So far we have seen 24% retrace but we may see a further dip to somewhere in 1.258x to 1.251x zone watch out for 1.255x in the middle there.

So I am short from 1.262x zone for an initial dip.
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  • #663,720
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:18am Jul 2, 2012 1:18am
Quoting laffin2bank
anyone tell me how you get your pics of charts? I only know how to do screenshots

This is a fantastic bargain piece of software -- I got it free for signing up to a 30 day trial of something and then canceled immediately. Only 19.95 with cash.

http://www.faststone.org/FSCaptureDetail.htm

Check Trial Pay for a free offer... sign up to Netflix or Hulu etc and get it free.

http://www.trialpay.com/
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