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  • #663,561
  • Jun 30, 2012 10:18am Jun 30, 2012 10:18am
nice confluence there on friday's close
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  • #663,562
  • Jun 30, 2012 10:54am Jun 30, 2012 10:54am
so my two cents of what's been said and where we go...

1. i think whatever right now will not work if they're already finding faults with it. i'm not a believer that macro-economic problems such as this disappear quickly by any means especially something spread out over multiple countries.

2. the levels 1.27 is comparable to the 1.2750 on a moving average basis. we have not passed any type of longer measure to signal we're heading up which generally requires fundamental change or really oversold/overbought conditions after something has been accepted and i don't think we're there.

3. a lot of volume took place at the peak on friday. i'm generally not of the opinion of buying high, but it's what's done to try to support a position vs. what fundamentally fits. i'm of the viewpoint that the Euro looks to bully itself up. similar situations can be seen for much of this year in with trying to hold the 1.33-1.34 mark. the writing was on the wall but it held for quite a long time.

4. the timing of everything is a mystery to me. i know there's an effort to view numbers on a quarter over quarter basis and with the s&p jumping 50 points in the past 2 days and the euro jumping 200 in the last day. it seems like there was a desire to minimize the damage for the quarter. whether or not they want to shoot the moon this coming quarter is quarter is the mystery. part of me says yes, but it will by no means happen right away (probably not in the first half).

after having said all that, i'm never one to say we're shooting the moon (a la some saying 1.29-1.30). i did think 1.24 was too low and i think 1.28 is too high. i want to say we stay at this level for another day with maybe a little bullying to the upside before something happens and we go back down to where we've been... 1.2550 for sometime longer. i say the path of least resistance is down, but we may try to temporarily break longer term signals to throw everything off before heading back down. if we are to go up in the longer term, this down movement doesn't feel complete to me. i'm just not buying the major change on the friday of a quarter given how the news can be construed.
  • #663,563
  • Jun 30, 2012 11:19am Jun 30, 2012 11:19am
Quoting Eric D
Good day this is my review for the Friday's action: The EUR/USD soared aggressively on yesterday's session after a prolonged divergence formation and a test on the lower Bollinger Band.

For those who followed the Euro action trade, know we were expecting some reaction and took profits on Thursday, the pair soared on Friday but we were prepared with a stop loss for the rest of position right above the upper trigger channel line, pretty much at break even for those last lots.

Daily...
Nice View masta
AM Signal Provider
  • #663,564
  • Jun 30, 2012 11:23am Jun 30, 2012 11:23am
To everyone who has turned bullish overnight, consider this:

Quote
It is interesting to note that Friday’s EURUSD rally (1.8 percent) was the largest since exactly October 27. For reference, that previous rally was sparked by the Greek debt deal which arguably extinguished an immediate crisis fire; and yet the market still pulled an immediate about-face and tumbled 1500 pips in less than three months. That doesn’t mean that the euro is destined for the same fate this go around, but the fundamental comparisons between the current situation and October are remarkable. And, if anything, they are worse now.
Source: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...ticipated.html
  • #663,565
  • Jun 30, 2012 11:36am Jun 30, 2012 11:36am
Quoting Myo
To everyone who has turned bullish overnight, consider this:


Source: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...ticipated.html
yeah... there's good content there.
  • #663,566
  • Jun 30, 2012 11:45am Jun 30, 2012 11:45am
Quoting Playboy
Nice View masta
Thank you for your support PlayBoy, Feel free to share your view of the markets too!
  • #663,567
  • Jun 30, 2012 11:52am Jun 30, 2012 11:52am
I hope EU will reach 1.2740 then heavily short with targets 1.2410 and lower.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #663,568
  • Jun 30, 2012 12:24pm Jun 30, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I hope EU will reach 1.2740 then heavily short with targets 1.2410 and lower.
http://i.imgur.com/MFiWI.png
  • #663,569
  • Jun 30, 2012 12:38pm Jun 30, 2012 12:38pm
Quoting Compulsive
http://i.imgur.com/MFiWI.png
A little overshoot is really not that important on a monthly chart, but that's also why I think we won't go higher than 1.2740.
But everything is possible.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #663,570
  • Jun 30, 2012 1:15pm Jun 30, 2012 1:15pm
personal opinion:

trend is not healthy.i see still bullish sentiment and its right. What is waiting us in next a few days? 1.28-1.29? Does it sounds convincing for anyone? I am sorry but 1.2420 wasn't convincing too, we all saw what happened.So 1.28 is not convincing too so we will see what happen. i am not a volunteer to open long position over 1.2710 even in demo account! I dont know how many brave people has this courage. We can stand on 1.2600 - 1.2750 2-3 days.

(Just my opinion. I am coming to see here what people are thinking like everyone else so i must say my opinions too)
Its not an advice and sorry for grammar.
  • #663,571
  • Jun 30, 2012 1:24pm Jun 30, 2012 1:24pm
Looking for 1.282 in the upcoming days, have sell limit placed there, short number 3...
  • #663,572
  • Jun 30, 2012 1:27pm Jun 30, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting oundar
personal opinion:

trend is not healthy.i see still bullish sentiment and its right. What is waiting us in next a few days? 1.28-1.29? Does it sounds convincing for anyone? I am sorry but 1.2420 wasn't convincing too, we all saw what happened.So 1.28 is not convincing too so we will see what happen. i am not a volunteer to open long position over 1.2710 even in demo account! I dont know how many brave people has this courage. We can stand on 1.2600 - 1.2750 2-3 days.

(Just my opinion. I am coming to see here what people are thinking like everyone...
I went trought COT report and there is a 50 % reduction in non commercial
long positions.
Follow big boys

http://s15.postimage.org/whcl6wi53/cot.jpg
swing it!
  • #663,573
  • Jun 30, 2012 1:29pm Jun 30, 2012 1:29pm
Maybe there is some similarity with October 27-11
On Thursday they also had "solved" the EZ problems.

EU went up 358 pips in a day.

Next week: 563 pips down.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #663,574
  • Edited 4:24pm Jun 30, 2012 1:35pm | Edited 4:24pm
I humbly Request anyone , ANYONE , who is saying that we are going upside to explain their points with charts !!! I think we are Bearish , atleast atleast till 1.25 ... I trade Higher time frame , Bigger picture as they say it , so according to that , I am backing my statement with following basic charts !!!!

My all short trades from way back are all locked with profits , so even if those who say longs are right , I am safe ... But , How do you say long ???
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Human
  • #663,575
  • Jun 30, 2012 1:36pm Jun 30, 2012 1:36pm
How's life KW? having seen you for a while
swing it!
  • #663,576
  • Jun 30, 2012 1:36pm Jun 30, 2012 1:36pm
Quoting tomspin
I went trought COT report and there is a 50 % reduction in non commercial
long positions.
Follow big boys

http://s15.postimage.org/whcl6wi53/cot.jpg
hey i was just curious to how you got that information, so I could on my own in the future?

Thank you
  • #663,577
  • Edited 2:02pm Jun 30, 2012 1:43pm | Edited 2:02pm
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Co...ders/index.htm
Scroll down to Chicago Mercantile Exchange and click short version - they realise report every friday, there is a strategy that can be built around it - now repeat after me - google is your friend
swing it!
  • #663,578
  • Edited 3:50pm Jun 30, 2012 3:24pm | Edited 3:50pm
Nobody has to prove anything to you but while you asked, just eyeballing the daily chart I see one candle engulfing almost all of the previous 7, and originating at support.. So until I see convincing evidence to the contrary it is going up on that time frame. BTW, you might be the only one here trading the monthly/weekly chart..

Many times support/resistance is broken and it bounces from there. The lines you drew on your charts don't mean much, and even if they do, I am not interested to sit and wait hundreds of pips just to find out if a s/r violation was fake or not..

The 2 cents I have on me right now...


Quoting Chanya
I humbly Request anyone , ANYONE , who is saying that we are going upside to prove their points with charts !!! I think we are Bearish , atleast atleast till 1.25 ... I trade Higher time frame , Bigger picture as they say it , so according to that , I am backing my statement with following basic charts !!!!

My all short trades from way back are all locked with profits , so even if those who say longs are right , I am safe ... But , How do you say long ???
  • #663,579
  • Jun 30, 2012 4:11pm Jun 30, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting tomspin
I went trought COT report and there is a 50 % reduction in non commercial
long positions.
Follow big boys

http://s15.postimage.org/whcl6wi53/cot.jpg
important.thank you mate!
Its not an advice and sorry for grammar.
  • #663,580
  • Jun 30, 2012 4:20pm Jun 30, 2012 4:20pm
I am holding a bearish bias on two accounts

Chart 1

H1 chart is price approaching 1000EMA. That is beast-like...and I mean beast-like resistance area. See price reaction on 15th, 18th and 21st.

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Chart 2

H4 timeframe. For any ichimoku kinko hyo analysts of eurusd, you will note that the Kijun Sen is still below the clouds. The clouds are also bearish. The direction of the Kijun Sen still favors a PA gravitation back to the 2520-2480 area where ranging may start again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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