Good insight from all of you guys, specially from the guru PT... have great weekend.
- #40,685
- Jun 29, 2012 5:16pm Jun 29, 2012 5:16pm
- | Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,281 Posts
I had to post this for you.Please go there and ask him how it feels to be a traitor to the U.S Constitution, and shill for Goldman Sachs.
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Roberts jokes about trip to 'impregnable' fortress
By JOE MANDAK
Associated Press
http://hosted.ap.org/photos/6/638b36...0729-small.jpg
AP...
- #40,690
- Jun 30, 2012 5:54am Jun 30, 2012 5:54am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: AL -a reVerse psyChology | 265 Posts
How's your EW outlook. That a very good effort. Well done.
- #40,691
- Jun 30, 2012 7:36am Jun 30, 2012 7:36am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Happy weekend everyone
All the good news has already come out of Europe and yet the E/U has failed to show the significant momentum one would have expected from a market that was satisfied with the EU summit results. As such, the upside is very limited in my opinion. If price does still have some upside left in it, I foresee a cap around 1.2740 and 1.2810 in extension of that. Right now any more than that is just far fetched.
This coming week we have 2 event risks. ECB rate statement and press conference, followed by NFP Friday.
I believe that we will finally get an additional ECB rate cut. This belief is supported by the dismal econ data we have had in the last few months out of the EuroZone member states including those of Germany. In such an event, the obvious market reaction will be to start unwinding the Euro carry trade and that would weaken the Euro across the board. Mind you, we may see an initial rally first out of market satisfaction that the ECB is stepping in as a backstop for the EuroZone, which has lately been in doubt since the ECB has not come forward to help in the sovereign debt market. Again, it all boils down to how the market perceives it, but in the end, a lower ECB rate will translate into a lower Euro.
As for the NFP number, the reaction will be quite obvious.
Worse than expected = USD negative and risk-off sentiment resulting in the E/U rising or going sideways in a range. (depending on the ECB results and how much worse than expectations the NFP number is)
Better than or as expected = USD bullish and risk on resulting in the E/U falling or going sideways in a range. (depending on the ECB results and how much better than expectations the NFP number is)
In conclusion, while considering only the end results of the above mentioned risk events (not considering any additional verbal diarrhea from EZ leaders), the risk for the E/U pair is still to the downside. The most likely scenario is that the Euro will range between 1.2680 and 1.2520 for the beginning of the week and then on the ECB rate statement it will either make a quick break to the upside (1.2740/1.2810) to complete a larger ABC correction before resuming the down trend, or just fall from current levels to complete the right shoulder of a H/S formation. I am leaning more toward the H/S formation, but I'm not psychic.
E/U H4
E/U Daily
All the good news has already come out of Europe and yet the E/U has failed to show the significant momentum one would have expected from a market that was satisfied with the EU summit results. As such, the upside is very limited in my opinion. If price does still have some upside left in it, I foresee a cap around 1.2740 and 1.2810 in extension of that. Right now any more than that is just far fetched.
This coming week we have 2 event risks. ECB rate statement and press conference, followed by NFP Friday.
I believe that we will finally get an additional ECB rate cut. This belief is supported by the dismal econ data we have had in the last few months out of the EuroZone member states including those of Germany. In such an event, the obvious market reaction will be to start unwinding the Euro carry trade and that would weaken the Euro across the board. Mind you, we may see an initial rally first out of market satisfaction that the ECB is stepping in as a backstop for the EuroZone, which has lately been in doubt since the ECB has not come forward to help in the sovereign debt market. Again, it all boils down to how the market perceives it, but in the end, a lower ECB rate will translate into a lower Euro.
As for the NFP number, the reaction will be quite obvious.
Worse than expected = USD negative and risk-off sentiment resulting in the E/U rising or going sideways in a range. (depending on the ECB results and how much worse than expectations the NFP number is)
Better than or as expected = USD bullish and risk on resulting in the E/U falling or going sideways in a range. (depending on the ECB results and how much better than expectations the NFP number is)
In conclusion, while considering only the end results of the above mentioned risk events (not considering any additional verbal diarrhea from EZ leaders), the risk for the E/U pair is still to the downside. The most likely scenario is that the Euro will range between 1.2680 and 1.2520 for the beginning of the week and then on the ECB rate statement it will either make a quick break to the upside (1.2740/1.2810) to complete a larger ABC correction before resuming the down trend, or just fall from current levels to complete the right shoulder of a H/S formation. I am leaning more toward the H/S formation, but I'm not psychic.
E/U H4
E/U Daily
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #40,693
- Jun 30, 2012 8:45am Jun 30, 2012 8:45am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #40,698
- Jun 30, 2012 12:16pm Jun 30, 2012 12:16pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
I think that is the OsMA divergence.
M30
H1
... and here is the bearish hidden divergence on H4
H4
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #40,699
- Jun 30, 2012 12:57pm Jun 30, 2012 12:57pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: That the best u can do, u pansies? | 6,087 Posts
Hey everyone. Just had a few minutes and wanted to do a Mid-Year review and outlook for current market conditions.
On Friday EZ leaders agreed on a bank supervision plan and help for Italy and Spain, and the euro jumped pretty big. Congratulations to all those who got in on that move and profited from it.
2012 half time report – 6 months in – 6 to go in 2012
Exchange/Commodity Performance
Dow up 4.8%
S & P up 7.6%
Nasdaq up 11.9%
Gold up 1.8%
Oil Down 16.8%
The EU Summit agreement produces Euro-Wide banking supervisor, direct recapitalization of banks and ESM can buy sovereign bonds in the primary market.
The ESM will be given the possibility to recapitalize banks directly.
Regarding the aid package for Spain, it will be provided by the EFSF until the ESM becomes available, without gaining seniority status in this change. If anyone remembers I wondered how they could change seniority on the loan without the 17 other signitaries signing a forced cramdown exchange on the bonds. This is how they are going to do it.
The market will digest this as increasing the likelihood of EFSF/ESM market intervention The growth package (EUR120bn) was also adopted as expected.
Add all above to final trading day of first six months of 2012 when companies are moving money around and we have a confluence of events for a major move in markets. I personally got some of my positions taken out. But still slightly green for the week/month for the first time in a long time.
Short-lived like the Greece elections or sign of reversals?
In my personal opinion the Summit result is by no means even close to be the solution that can end the debt crisis, but it is reminder that there still is commitment to save the euro project among the political leaders in euro area. This stands to reason since the big 4(esp Germany) are making a truckload of money off of the Euro project and they do NOT want it to stop.
We have two important central bank meetings next week, the ECB and BOE, which are both held on July 5th. The market and myself will be intensely interested in this since the ECB is expected to make some drastic rate cuts and Draghi is typically Euro bearish in his statements. I expect the BOE to also continue to increase its asset purchase plan as their economy is still in dire straits by all statistical measures.
German retail sales fell, increasing pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates at its July meeting. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a euro-era record low of 0.75%(some are saying as low as 0.50%)
The BOE has the market expecting a further GBP50bn of quantitative easing.
Current Market Conditions Analysis
I will return over weekend with new game plan for next week.
The ECB and BOE meet on July 5 with Non Farm Payroll on July 6.
EUR/USD high of session was 1.2694 or 1 pip away from 1.2695 (very strong channel number)where pair bounced down near 1.2650 area or 40+ pips after major move for session.
IMHO after events from EU Summit are shared in this report, but E/U will be range bound between 1.2460/1.2502 to 1.2695/1.2735 – Swing Players should be looking at these numbers going into holiday next week and the trifecta of ECB and BOE meetings along with Non Farm Payroll next Thursday and Friday.
Reader’s Digest version: We remain in same range as before when EUR/USD dropped before this EU Summit and after last month’s NFP and Greece elections.
Look for smaller volumes next week due to holidays as some are taking long weekends this weekend till 4th and others will take long weekends starting Tuesday for 4th. It all sounds so confusing… Enjoy your weekend!
Here is where Ill be if anyone needs me...
On Friday EZ leaders agreed on a bank supervision plan and help for Italy and Spain, and the euro jumped pretty big. Congratulations to all those who got in on that move and profited from it.
2012 half time report – 6 months in – 6 to go in 2012
Exchange/Commodity Performance
Dow up 4.8%
S & P up 7.6%
Nasdaq up 11.9%
Gold up 1.8%
Oil Down 16.8%
The EU Summit agreement produces Euro-Wide banking supervisor, direct recapitalization of banks and ESM can buy sovereign bonds in the primary market.
The ESM will be given the possibility to recapitalize banks directly.
Regarding the aid package for Spain, it will be provided by the EFSF until the ESM becomes available, without gaining seniority status in this change. If anyone remembers I wondered how they could change seniority on the loan without the 17 other signitaries signing a forced cramdown exchange on the bonds. This is how they are going to do it.
The market will digest this as increasing the likelihood of EFSF/ESM market intervention The growth package (EUR120bn) was also adopted as expected.
Add all above to final trading day of first six months of 2012 when companies are moving money around and we have a confluence of events for a major move in markets. I personally got some of my positions taken out. But still slightly green for the week/month for the first time in a long time.
Short-lived like the Greece elections or sign of reversals?
In my personal opinion the Summit result is by no means even close to be the solution that can end the debt crisis, but it is reminder that there still is commitment to save the euro project among the political leaders in euro area. This stands to reason since the big 4(esp Germany) are making a truckload of money off of the Euro project and they do NOT want it to stop.
We have two important central bank meetings next week, the ECB and BOE, which are both held on July 5th. The market and myself will be intensely interested in this since the ECB is expected to make some drastic rate cuts and Draghi is typically Euro bearish in his statements. I expect the BOE to also continue to increase its asset purchase plan as their economy is still in dire straits by all statistical measures.
German retail sales fell, increasing pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates at its July meeting. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a euro-era record low of 0.75%(some are saying as low as 0.50%)
The BOE has the market expecting a further GBP50bn of quantitative easing.
Current Market Conditions Analysis
I will return over weekend with new game plan for next week.
The ECB and BOE meet on July 5 with Non Farm Payroll on July 6.
EUR/USD high of session was 1.2694 or 1 pip away from 1.2695 (very strong channel number)where pair bounced down near 1.2650 area or 40+ pips after major move for session.
IMHO after events from EU Summit are shared in this report, but E/U will be range bound between 1.2460/1.2502 to 1.2695/1.2735 – Swing Players should be looking at these numbers going into holiday next week and the trifecta of ECB and BOE meetings along with Non Farm Payroll next Thursday and Friday.
Reader’s Digest version: We remain in same range as before when EUR/USD dropped before this EU Summit and after last month’s NFP and Greece elections.
Look for smaller volumes next week due to holidays as some are taking long weekends this weekend till 4th and others will take long weekends starting Tuesday for 4th. It all sounds so confusing… Enjoy your weekend!
Here is where Ill be if anyone needs me...
- #40,700
- Jun 30, 2012 1:08pm Jun 30, 2012 1:08pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Hey everyone. Just had a few minutes and wanted to do a Mid-Year review and outlook for current market conditions.
On Friday EZ leaders agreed on a bank supervision plan and help for Italy and Spain, and the euro jumped pretty big. Congratulations to all those who got in on that move and profited from it.
2012 half time report – 6 months in – 6 to go in 2012
Exchange/Commodity Performance
Dow up 4.8%
S & P up 7.6%
Nasdaq...
Enjoy you beach park bench. I will be in a similar place.
Cheers
PT
http://stonemole.files.wordpress.com...mino_malta.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it