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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #40,641
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:33am Jun 29, 2012 9:33am
Quoting Cgb
When you start seeing a few of these around, you know you're there!
niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice
  • #40,642
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:33am Jun 29, 2012 9:33am
Quoting tradercnx
Hello PT, What would you consider a reasonable amount of capital one would need to trade Forex and make a living ? And I mean to trade FX safely with only 50:1 leverage but also make enough each month without sticking your nuts on the line with every trade. Say the max I wanted to risk per trade was 2%, is this too much? what about max of 3% ? I've pondered this for a while. Some say absolute max risk should be 1% but I think this could be a little low?? I know traders who can make 100% on their capital in good months, the rest of the time they...
The answer all depends how much you need to make in order to live and put something away. Just base it on an average of 10% return per month. So if you need $5,000 per month, then you should be trading a 50k account.

I rarely risk more than 1% per position on an average, but I am flexible. Rigidity kills accounts. Certain trades I get into will require lots of breathing room depending on the pair traded and the current market volatility levels. As long as you have an excellent understanding of the underlying market drivers, you really don't need a stop loss other than to protect you from a black swan event. That is why a macro perspective is very important. Even if you trade intraday off an M15 chart, if you don't watch the big picture, you're guaranteed to suffer losses. My trading style allows me to never have to take a loss. Low leverage position trades where I only buy large dips in a bull market and only sell strong rallies in a bear market.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,643
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:38am Jun 29, 2012 9:38am
good morning everyone


Sad to report that all positions have been taken out for a minimal gain or BE. All the good work over the last few weeks building them were for naught.

That being said Ill enjoy the rest of the weekend and allow the market to digest the rather unimpressive news that drove this short covering rally.

The market currently sits at very strong resistance across the board.

take er' easy everybody..
  • #40,644
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:43am Jun 29, 2012 9:43am
Quoting PurePrice
How do you detemine the point of exhaustion?
By gaining a thorough understanding of market Fundamentals & psychology, combining it with recent PA and using technicals as a guide to identify support/resistance (or supply/demand) and more importantly, divergence.

On the divergence topic, a normal market moves in stages. With every move up , each move becomes weaker than the previous. Once you see three consecutive moves getting progressively weaker (with the help of a divergence indicator such as MacD), if the top of the 3rd move is in confluence with some other resistance such as a pivot point, key fibo level and/or moving average, the probabilities of a reversal downwards are at their max. That is where you take the risk, because even if by chance it makes another attempt to move one level higher, at some point price will come back to you. The only exception is when the market experiences a black swan event.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,645
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:44am Jun 29, 2012 9:44am
Quoting Cgb
When you start seeing a few of these around, you know you're there!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,646
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:44am Jun 29, 2012 9:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
The answer all depends how much you need to make in order to live and put something away. Just base it on an average of 10% return per month. So if you need $5,000 per month, then you should be trading a 50k account.

I rarely risk more than 1% per position on an average, but I am flexible. Rigidity kills accounts. Certain trades I get into will require lots of breathing room depending on the pair traded and the current market volatility levels. As long as you have an excellent understanding of the underlying market drivers, you really don't...
Thanks for the reply. Makes sense, it's certainly much easier to hold onto trades when you keep the % risk right down. I'm not so sure I can trade without stops, I'm trying to get away from always doing intra day trading so I don't need to become a screen jockey for ever. I think the daily chart is where I'm headed for most of my trades. But I will say this, when I'm looking for a trend change on a particular day I'll swap down to a 15 min or hourly to get an early entry. Once in I can back off and let it work. This will keep my initial risk down. Ok there's going to be times I'll be stopped out a few times on entering a trade, but that's okay as long as the % risk is low enough so it's not going to kill me. I've tried to intra day trade many times and keep stuffing it up. Maybe I get too close to the fire and need to back out a bit. Today was a good day to be an intra day trader no doubt.
  • #40,647
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:45am Jun 29, 2012 9:45am
When i left home, i saw it was 1.2600 and below. now its 1.2680 zone.

Its as if the 1.2280 into 1.2450 , today we see 1.2450 into 1.2690 , thats 240 pips run.

Its a crazy day with stocks all rally like no time for bear to come out at all.

Forex is like that, when everyone says sell, its time for buy, - 1.2400-1.2480 zone.

previous at 1.2690-1.2750, everyone says buy, and its time for sell.

Lets think like an insider, of how they want to move the market.

MIG sell position from 1.2740 probably hit stop loss from take profit level 1. i guess many banks also hit stop, so resulting in lesser selling positions, so it went higher.

and acb and middleast have been adding long from 1.24-1.25. Russia also bought AUD.

however, i also think that banks had also loaded buy position at 1.24 area even if they had a sell earlier at 1.27.

Now at this level, i add 1.2687 sell and may continue to add if its goes higher on stoch high level.

I am a long term trader, i can wait 1-2 weeks for profits.

1.2750 our current resistance.

I rely heavily on support resistance for entry, i loaded 1.2410-1.2460 zone for buy position when everyone says sell.
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  • #40,648
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:49am Jun 29, 2012 9:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
By gaining a thorough understanding of market Fundamentals & psychology, combining it with recent PA and using technicals as a guide to identify support/resistance (or supply/demand) and more importantly, divergence.

On the divergence topic, a normal market moves in stages. With every move up , each move becomes weaker than the previous. Once you see three consecutive moves getting progressively weaker (with the help of a divergence indicator such as MacD), if the top of the 3rd move is in confluence with some other resistance such as a pivot...
Very helpful
thanks PT
  • #40,649
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:50am Jun 29, 2012 9:50am
Quoting 5percent
When i left home, i saw it was 1.2600 and below. now its 1.2680 zone.

Its as if the 1.2280 into 1.2450 , today we see 1.2450 into 1.2690 , thats 240 pips run.

Its a crazy day with stocks all rally like no time for bear to come out at all.

Forex is like that, when everyone says sell, its time for buy, - 1.2400-1.2480 zone.

previous at 1.2690-1.2750, everyone says buy, and its time for sell.

Lets think like an insider, of how they want to move the market.

MIG sell position from 1.2740 probably hit stop loss from take profit level...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,650
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:51am Jun 29, 2012 9:51am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
That's great. Maybe you can post some charts and analysis so we can have some dialogue.

BTW-You also know what they say about opinions?
u mean to say everyone got an AH
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #40,651
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:54am Jun 29, 2012 9:54am
Ok, H1 closing again. Get ready.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,652
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:56am Jun 29, 2012 9:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
By gaining a thorough understanding of market Fundamentals & psychology, combining it with recent PA and using technicals as a guide to identify support/resistance (or supply/demand) and more importantly, divergence.

On the divergence topic, a normal market moves in stages. With every move up , each move becomes weaker than the previous. Once you see three consecutive moves getting progressively weaker (with the help of a divergence indicator such as MacD), if the top of the 3rd move is in confluence with some other resistance such as a pivot...
Great. Thank you very much.

Do you normally trade daily charts when looking at divergence?
  • #40,653
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:57am Jun 29, 2012 9:57am
Quoting Wulfgar
From a fundie point of view this whole thing may fall apart is merkel says it's all a pipe dream. Btw can anyone tell me how Italy and Spain can renounce seniority on Loans? Did all 17 signitaries agree to a forever cramdown exchange offer? I doubt it. I hate to be bearish about all this but this band-aid reminds me of the October 2011 Greek bailout.... That ended well(not really)


The 1.2502-1.2520 is the breakout channel.. Above we have the 1.2667 and the big one at 1.2748.
As a confession I broke my trading plan today. It didnt cost me anything but I have written down not to trade the last day of the month for flows and repatriation reasons causing uncharacteristic deviations of the trend.

Still bearish, will let the hopium fizzle with the rest of the trend traders and possibly demo my scalping system where I dont use a fundamental trend bias. Its meeting with moderate success so far.
  • #40,654
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:57am Jun 29, 2012 9:57am
Quoting 5percent
When i left home, i saw it was 1.2600 and below. now its 1.2680 zone.

Its as if the 1.2280 into 1.2450 , today we see 1.2450 into 1.2690 , thats 240 pips run.

Its a crazy day with stocks all rally like no time for bear to come out at all.

Forex is like that, when everyone says sell, its time for buy, - 1.2400-1.2480 zone.

previous at 1.2690-1.2750, everyone says buy, and its time for sell.

Lets think like an insider, of how they want to move the market.

MIG sell position from 1.2740 probably hit stop loss from take profit level 1. i guess...
a safer entry and exit is here, for example.

This is just a theory, price may not retrace to my level if it can inch higher on 5-15 minute stoch and rsi, it can keep recharging and spike higher.

but i have been surviving on this price action and technical trading. i don't trade fundamental.
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  • #40,655
  • Jun 29, 2012 10:01am Jun 29, 2012 10:01am
Quoting 5percent
a safer entry and exit is here, for example.

This is just a theory, price may not retrace to my level if it can inch higher on 5-15 minute stoch and rsi, it can keep recharging and spike higher.

but i have been surviving on this price action and technical trading. i don't trade fundamental.
can you circle what do you mean by saying 'pin bar'? looking at your chart, I see none?

Pure coincidence...
  • #40,656
  • Jun 29, 2012 10:03am Jun 29, 2012 10:03am
Quoting Paulenok
can you circle what do you mean by saying 'pin bar'? looking at your chart, I see none?

Pure coincidence...

There isn't a clear one yet on 1.2680-1.2690, but i enter some small position to sell here. thats 30 minute chart . There isn't a ping bar yet but i saw a tiny line on 1 hour chart with my resistance level here.

that i last posted.

our current resistance level is 1.2740-1.2770.

I choose to sell here at 1.2685 area, because its a 250 pip run already, i don't mind market going higher, i can add and held till my take profits get hit. whether its hours, days or even 1-2 week.

ok i added my 1hour chart.

i am neither bear or bull, but i choose to sell resistance buy support on big tf
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  • #40,657
  • Jun 29, 2012 10:06am Jun 29, 2012 10:06am
Last H1 close suggests further pressure to the upside. Now I am interested where (NY)H4 candle closes next hour. I tend to think it will be @ ,27. My entry is still nesting cosily in 1,285.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,658
  • Jun 29, 2012 10:08am Jun 29, 2012 10:08am
Quoting PurePrice
How do you detemine the point of exhaustion?
..maybe by applying the new proprietary mini Swissy H+S indicator on other pairs? ... looks back to zombie-state again!
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The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #40,659
  • Jun 29, 2012 10:10am Jun 29, 2012 10:10am
Quoting PurePrice
Great. Thank you very much.

Do you normally trade daily charts when looking at divergence?
My favorite is H4, but I look for divergences on any chart and then use it as part of my analysis in the appropriate context.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,660
  • Jun 29, 2012 10:12am Jun 29, 2012 10:12am
Quoting Cgb
When you start seeing a few of these around, you know you're there!
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