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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #40,621
  • Jun 29, 2012 8:26am Jun 29, 2012 8:26am
Quoting Cgb


Have you ever seen the comedy one about him wanting to buy a Harley and can't get it? I'll try to find it on YouTube for you.
There's a bunch of funny one's on utube. Better send it to my PM.
  • #40,622
  • Jun 29, 2012 8:28am Jun 29, 2012 8:28am
1.2710 will be the best and strongest point to send this pair back to the ground !
well, take a look at the chart
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  • #40,623
  • Jun 29, 2012 8:28am Jun 29, 2012 8:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
Easy cowboy. If you wanted to be long this market, the time to do it was 300 pips ago
Long??? I'm trying to see where this madness is going to! That buy of mine yesterday at 1.2424 was the keeper but alas, I didn't keep it.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #40,624
  • Jun 29, 2012 8:28am Jun 29, 2012 8:28am
Quoting forexboom
Just one thing

Why you traders here, are waiting when this move will end, and don't buy simply the dips? It's easier.

My personal opinion.

forexBOOM
That's great. Maybe you can post some charts and analysis so we can have some dialogue.

BTW-You also know what they say about opinions?
  • #40,625
  • Jun 29, 2012 8:32am Jun 29, 2012 8:32am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
That's great. Maybe you can post some charts and analysis so we can have some dialogue.

BTW-You also know what they say about opinions?
Hi,

now for example we reached a resistence zone, the support below is at 1.2650/34, I'll look to buy again there. That's buying the dips.

Wall street is opening...

forexBOOM
  • #40,626
  • Jun 29, 2012 8:39am Jun 29, 2012 8:39am
Quoting forexboom
..Why you traders here, are waiting when this move will end, and don't buy simply the dips? It's easier.
Coz there arent many scalpers here?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,627
  • Jun 29, 2012 8:42am Jun 29, 2012 8:42am
Quoting forexboom
Hi,

now for example we reached a resistence zone, the support below is at 1.2650/34, I'll look to buy again there. That's buying the dips.

Wall street is opening...

forexBOOM
It took more then 3 1/2 sessions to take eu to reach 1.269 and if a single -neg comment come out from EU this sucker can go back under 1.25 so taking long at this time would be riskier IMO ...so dont run after the price wait for it to come into your target(triggered) zone...
EDIT: Unless you are scalper ....
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #40,628
  • Jun 29, 2012 8:48am Jun 29, 2012 8:48am
Hi Tom,

I understand, here majority are position trader. The problem is that EU is so volatile so position traders need VERY CAREFULL MONEY MANAGEMENT. How many traders here know MM startegies? Using MT4 for example with undercapitalized account, applying MM strategies correctly is impossible. Example to open a 0.1 lot in MT4 you need at least 10.000 USD account in this EU market. How many traders here use this MM ratio? They have to apply for a micro account, but profit will be very, very small. We have to tought traders here that making 2% monthly is enough and making it continuosly is the max one trader can do safely. If trading will be a job, 2% is max.

This is as always is my PERSONAL opinion.

forexBOOM
  • #40,629
  • Jun 29, 2012 8:49am Jun 29, 2012 8:49am
Quoting forexboom
Just one thing

Why you traders here, are waiting when this move will end, and don't buy simply the dips? It's easier.

My personal opinion.

forexBOOM
In a normal bull market I would buy dips, but when price moves 300+ pips without stopping to breathe, it is an obvious sign of an impending fade. with the exception of scalpers, only lemmings would take on long positions at this point. With market conditions as they are, if I was convinced that we are now in a bull market, I would wait until we get a minimum of a 38.2% retrace. However, I am not convinced that sentiment has turned. What we got overnight was a short covering on hopium and BS from Van Rompuy. At the 12:15 fixing we got some real money enter the market as part of quarter end window dressing which will probably continue this afternoon for a bit although limited. After that, once the window dressing is done and dusted, I fully expect this market to fade most if not all the gains. From there, nobody know what will happen and it is at that time that the markets will move normally and consistently. That is when one is more able to trade objectively... not now. However, I will short the top to fade this sucker down because from a macro perspective, we are in a bear market.

BAAM
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,630
  • Jun 29, 2012 8:49am Jun 29, 2012 8:49am
http://cdn.mdjunction.com/components...dbcbf6abe4.jpg
  • #40,631
  • Jun 29, 2012 8:54am Jun 29, 2012 8:54am
H1 closes within 10 minutes. Imo the range I have been blabling about for about two weeks now is the key. Close above ,2803 can send us up to last weeks highs, close below ,2666 down to retest ,262.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,632
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:00am Jun 29, 2012 9:00am
HI PT,

as always I appreciate your comments. How many probabilities the Eu have to reach 1.317x area (completed BAT formation in 1D) ?

forexBOOM

PS

How is quality of life in Malta? Similar to England? The sea is beautifull?
  • #40,633
  • Edited 9:16am Jun 29, 2012 9:03am | Edited 9:16am
Quoting forexboom
Hi Tom,

I understand, here majority are position trader. The problem is that EU is so volatile so position traders need VERY CAREFULL MONEY MANAGEMENT. How many traders here know MM startegies? Using MT4 for example with undercapitalized account, applying MM strategies correctly is impossible. Example to open a 0.1 lot in MT4 you need at least 10.000 USD account in this EU market. How many traders here use this MM ratio? They have to apply for a micro account, but profit will be very, very small. We have to tought traders here that making 2%...
I have to disagree with you about position trader returns. 2% per month is the very bare minimum one would make in a bad month. 10% is about the average. 15% to 20% is what one can expect on a good month. Even without compounding, an avg of 10% per month is 120% per year. Where else could anyone make 120% return on capital in one year and do it consistently year after year? Of course if you are only trading with $5,000 of capital, then yes I agree, 120% is not enough if you make trading your full time job. However, in order to make more than that, you have to over leverage yourself or over trade the market. That is when you are asking for trouble. I've been doing this many years and I have yet to meet anyone in this business that has had those kind of returns for more than 4 months, only to have a bad month and lose 70% of their capital. I think you know what I mean
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,634
  • Edited 9:11am Jun 29, 2012 9:03am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting forexboom
Hi Tom,

I understand, here majority are position trader. The problem is that EU is so volatile so position traders need VERY CAREFULL MONEY MANAGEMENT. How many traders here know MM startegies?...
Rofl. Man. Money management is supposed to be core of everyones trading system. If someone doesnt master it, he shouldnt be allowed to get closer to markets less than one mile. If you have undercapitalized account, you shouldnt trade in the first place. This is not fun.

0,01 lot is the right way for a small investor to play as swing trader, without having to invest 20K USD. Thats how I started. Easy. And yes, 2% per month is sufficient for me.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,635
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:15am Jun 29, 2012 9:15am
Quoting forexboom
HI PT,

as always I appreciate your comments. How many probabilities the Eu have to reach 1.317x area (completed BAT formation in 1D) ?

forexBOOM

PS

How is quality of life in Malta? Similar to England? The sea is beautifull?
1.3170 is pie in the sky right now. In order to go there, we would need a lot more from the European leaders (which at this point cannot happen until at least October), or we would need the Fed to implement QE3 (which will not happen till next year unless we spiral into a freefall). What is possible is 1.2810 and at the extreme 1.2950.

However, I don't expect price to reach that high unless Monday is still a bullish market. Being quarter end, anything is possible but I have my eyes on shorting as soon as I see exhaustion.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,636
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:19am Jun 29, 2012 9:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
1.3170 is pie in the sky right now. In order to go there, we would need a lot more from the European leaders (which at this point cannot happen until at least October), or we would need the Fed to implement QE3 (which will not happen till next year unless we spiral into a freefall). What is possible is 1.2810 and at the extreme 1.2950.

However, I don't expect price to reach that high unless Monday is still a bullish market. Being quarter end, anything is possible but I have my eyes on shorting as soon as I see exhaustion.
Thanks
  • #40,637
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:23am Jun 29, 2012 9:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have to disagree with you about position trader returns. 2% per month is the very bare minimum one would make in a bad month. 10% is about the average. 15% to 20% is what one can expect on a good month. Even without compounding, an avg of 10% per month is 120% per year. Where else could anyone make 120% return on capital in one year and do it consistently year after year? Of course if you are only trading with $5,000 of capital, then yes I agree, 120% is not enough if you make trading your full time job. However, in order to make more than...

Hello PT, What would you consider a reasonable amount of capital one would need to trade Forex and make a living ? And I mean to trade FX safely with only 50:1 leverage but also make enough each month without sticking your nuts on the line with every trade. Say the max I wanted to risk per trade was 2%, is this too much? what about max of 3% ? I've pondered this for a while. Some say absolute max risk should be 1% but I think this could be a little low?? I know traders who can make 100% on their capital in good months, the rest of the time they stay out of the market. When times are good they belt it hard.
  • #40,638
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:25am Jun 29, 2012 9:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
1.3170 is pie in the sky right now. In order to go there, we would need a lot more from the European leaders (which at this point cannot happen until at least October), or we would need the Fed to implement QE3 (which will not happen till next year unless we spiral into a freefall). What is possible is 1.2810 and at the extreme 1.2950.

However, I don't expect price to reach that high unless Monday is still a bullish market. Being quarter end, anything is possible but I have my eyes on shorting as soon as I see exhaustion.
How do you detemine the point of exhaustion?
  • #40,639
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:27am Jun 29, 2012 9:27am
It depends where do you live. For example in Czech, average wage is 1K USD per month. I dont need average wage, I am humble guy. Half of average is fine for me. So I need 500 pips per month with a minilot to make a living. Quite fair if you ask me.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,640
  • Jun 29, 2012 9:28am Jun 29, 2012 9:28am
Quoting PurePrice
How do you detemine the point of exhaustion?
When you start seeing a few of these around, you know you're there!
Attached Image
I observe your reality but live my own.
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