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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #40,161
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:54am Jun 28, 2012 5:54am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Sisse, may I ask you to correct my post if you find anything?

Btw, the original point of discussion is quite obvious. If they come up with some empty statement (and they will) how high can hope rally run? I think it may be very high (up to, 285) and am staying out.

T
Well without knowing the exact details of "empty" I can only give you by TA/FA scenarios in play.

So far very early comments and expectations on the summit are as follow:

 

  1. No real Banking Union just plans for making plans (-)
  2. No mutualization of debt (no eurobonds) and worst some real steps towards fiscal union (-)
  3. Technicalities on solving the short term bond problems via more bond buying with a bit more leverage and freedom for the ECB (which is + short term so check those bonds markets)
  4. A serious "Maastricht Treaty style" framework for the long term (5 to 10 years) to draw the path for fiscal union (starting with banks supervision and prolly after a EZ "Ministry of Finance"), more political union and more federalism. (+ if it is a serious one, otherwise more BS like the last 20 meetings.... but + for the long term so useless for now)
  5. On the short term problems and risk, so far is taking a decision by not taking a decision, meaning ECB cutting rates by default next week (extremely - for the euro)


Translating that to broad TA levels. 1.295x is wide open to the upside on any better than expected outcome for the summit via profit taking and risk out of the equation. Above it will need some additional Very Strong FA)

To the the downside, played with Q and M roll on a "typical" EU summit BS, meaning 1.223x wide open before any chance of pullback but limited to 1.266x

To the up/down side. A good summit for the long term but a poor one addressing the short term problems (again have your bonds quotes open). Take profits on a TA pullback around 1.238x/1.243x to 1.257x/1.266x area and sell the hell out of it on ECB cutting rates from 1.166x to parity depending on the cut (from 0.25 to negative rates).....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #40,162
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:00am Jun 28, 2012 6:00am
Quoting sisse
Well without knowing the exact details of "empty" I can only give you by TA/FA scenarios in play.

So far very early comments and expectations on the summit are as follow:
[list][*]No real Banking Union just plans for making plans (-)[*]No mutualization of debt (no eurobonds) and worst some real steps towards fiscal union (-)[*]Technicalities on solving the short term bond problems via more bond buying with a bit more leverage and freedom for the ECB (which is + short term so check those bonds markets)[*]A serious "Maastricht Treaty style"...
Great analysis sisse.
  • #40,163
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:14am Jun 28, 2012 6:14am
Quoting E-live
Hi All, found this thread is very very anti euro. You only give bad news about
europe. This is very bias and no good for all traders. When bad news comes
from euro, everybody was so happy (especially the anti euro king - the thread
owner Mr PT). He should change the thread title to Anti EurAalysis.
This way of studying the market will make everyone here broke in long run.
this morning i have taken a long and lost some money and it is entirely my fault and my mistake.now get off our back and start posting some chart and analysis to support ur view and please do read page one before saying anything and define ur time frame.ppl here are pro trend and not anti euro.ty
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #40,164
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:17am Jun 28, 2012 6:17am
Newswire- German finance minister just said Berlin is willing to negotiate on Eurobonds.

Did he get permission from Merkel?
  • #40,165
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:17am Jun 28, 2012 6:17am
that whisper turned into shouting rather quick
  • #40,166
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:20am Jun 28, 2012 6:20am
Quoting drzakir123
this morning i have taken a long and lost some money and it is entirely my fault and my mistake.now get off our back and start posting some chart and analysis to support ur view and please do read page one before saying anything and define ur time frame.ppl here are pro trend and not anti euro.ty
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,167
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:21am Jun 28, 2012 6:21am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Newswire- German finance minister just said Berlin is willing to negotiate on Eurobonds.

Did he get permission from Merkel?

Dollar turning flat and indices pairing back losses.
  • #40,168
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:21am Jun 28, 2012 6:21am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Newswire- German finance minister just said Berlin is willing to negotiate on Eurobonds.

Did he get permission from Merkel?
Yeah sure they are willing to negotiate... as long as there is an EZ Ministry of Finance first.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,169
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:22am Jun 28, 2012 6:22am
Quoting E-live
Hi All, found this thread is very very anti euro. You only give bad news about
europe. This is very bias and no good for all traders. When bad news comes
from euro, everybody was so happy (especially the anti euro king - the thread
owner Mr PT). He should change the thread title to Anti EurAalysis.
This way of studying the market will make everyone here broke in long run.
Sorry ...!!! didnt get you ... what do you mean by anti euro ??
its a trade and unfortunatly ita a pair trade ... and the euro performance as a currency is sucks and too bad loosing its value ... what do you want traders to do ? lose thier money to be pro - euro ??

nothing personal between anyone and the euro .. but ppl selling the low currency and buying to strong one !!

No really what do you want the thread and traders to do to not see them as anti euro ... ppl are happy for the bad news because they are simply selling the euro , if they are buying it they would be sad all the time

anyway i dont think anyone cares about your opinion but i just wanted to understand , based on what you have described the thread and all traders as anti euro ??

cheers
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #40,170
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:23am Jun 28, 2012 6:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yeah sure they are willing to negotiate... as long as there is an EZ Ministry of Finance first.

Only if office is in Berlin of course.
  • #40,171
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:25am Jun 28, 2012 6:25am
Quoting sisse
Well without knowing the exact details of "empty" I can only give you by TA/FA scenarios in play.

So far very early comments and expectations on the summit are as follow:
[list][*]No real Banking Union just plans for making plans (-)[*]No mutualization of debt (no eurobonds) and worst some real steps towards fiscal union (-)[*]Technicalities on solving the short term bond problems via more bond buying with a bit more leverage and freedom for the ECB (which is + short term so check those bonds markets)[*]A serious "Maastricht Treaty...
Great post Sisse
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,172
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:26am Jun 28, 2012 6:26am
PA bouncing off the bottom of that uptrend channel.
  • #40,173
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:27am Jun 28, 2012 6:27am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Only if office is in Berlin of course.
Good one!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #40,174
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:28am Jun 28, 2012 6:28am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Only if office is in Berlin of course.
Well, Frankfurt would be okay also
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,175
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:33am Jun 28, 2012 6:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well, Frankfurt would be okay also

PT could you please remind me again ( sell the news , buy the rumor ) or vice versa ?

because there is someone marketing a rumor that ( this thread is anti euro ))

lol !!!
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #40,176
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:34am Jun 28, 2012 6:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
Thanks PT. Coming from you, it means a lot. u understand what i mean sssi....ooop.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #40,177
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:39am Jun 28, 2012 6:39am
Quoting balanced2012
PT could you please remind me again ( sell the news , buy the rumor ) or vice versa ?

because there is someone marketing a rumor that ( this thread is anti euro ))

lol !!!
hehe.. Buy the delusion, Sell the reality

As for the "anti-euro" comments from e-live, since he/she has not responded to my request for an elaboration, I assume that he/she is one of those buying the delusion.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,178
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:44am Jun 28, 2012 6:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
hehe.. Buy the delusion, Sell the reality

As for the "anti-euro" comments from e-live, since he/she has not responded to my request for an elaboration, I assume that he/she is one of those buying the delusion.

Was his first and only post on FF. I think he was ECB cointelpro.
  • #40,179
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:46am Jun 28, 2012 6:46am
why did no one tell me i forgot to log out of here, lol.i am having a break after sending student for lunch. I just had a scarey moment and i tell you guys this as a lesson. i was showing a trading method using only directional movement and adx line. and i let student do the live trade.i went long on the e/u and i didnt check the pip stake and it was a lot. anyway e/u rose and we snatched 20 pips. So take this as a lesson ALWAYS check.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #40,180
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:46am Jun 28, 2012 6:46am
Quoting balanced2012
PT could you please remind me again ( sell the news , buy the rumor ) or vice versa ?

because there is someone marketing a rumor that ( this thread is anti euro ))

lol !!!
I have also said that in the past, that this thread is nothing but a perma bear thread. What I failed to understand (being too focused on technicals and ignoring the fundamentals) was that charts are good to get a 'feel' of where the price will (read: should) be going, there are bigger and more influencial elements in trading Forex.

I was (and still am) happy that PT is offering his help on the board (along with others great members here) who do so without asking for anything in return. Having run several bulletin boards and web sites in my own time, I know the amount of work it takes to put out quality information and posts.

If PT was a daytrader or even a swing trader, he would not have time to post anything here. He'd be glued to his screen watching every tick. Thank God he's a laid back position trader!

Point is, there's alot to learn here and one should pay attention to what these guys post (even PT's video post on 21 things you should know about Malta tought me something I didn't know about the country! ). I for one enjoy reading the comments/analysis and will continue my Forex education. I'm still a newbie here compared to others and hope to be here in a year's time.

As Doc said, we are not anti-Euro, we are Pro trend.
I observe your reality but live my own.
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