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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #40,141
  • Jun 28, 2012 4:49am Jun 28, 2012 4:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
Oh look... Some good news for the Euro

Attachment
When EU Summit result?
Possible EU Break 1.24000 right now??
AM Signal Provider
  • #40,142
  • Jun 28, 2012 4:52am Jun 28, 2012 4:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
Oh look... Some good news for the Euro

Attachment
We all know that Federalization of Europe into a super state is the ultimate goal. I submit a quote.

Nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way. - Franklin D. Roosevelt (Freemason)
  • #40,143
  • Jun 28, 2012 4:52am Jun 28, 2012 4:52am
no offense bro

but if most people are short euro = why would they cry if euro came out with bad news?!

one could even argue you pigeon holing this thread with your view as an equal offense to one only rooting for euro in a specific way...

remember, all these are observations and one can only respond to certain things with subjective views.. if you want to see it as negative.. so be it, the rest look at it in a positive and growth like manner...

peace bro

Quoting E-live
Hi All, found this thread is very very anti euro. You only give bad news about
europe. This is very bias and no good for all traders. When bad news comes
from euro, everybody was so happy (especially the anti euro king - the thread
owner Mr PT). He should change the thread title to Anti EurAalysis.
This way of studying the market will make everyone here broke in long run.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #40,144
  • Jun 28, 2012 4:53am Jun 28, 2012 4:53am
Quoting D2tz
PA signaling a retrace IMO {from the pip whisperer}
I share your sentiment. However, today I am prepared for surprise moves either way depending on comments from EU leaders. This means that PA and TA are only good till the sphincter relaxes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,145
  • Jun 28, 2012 4:56am Jun 28, 2012 4:56am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Market was all in mode: "buy the rumour, sell the news" and bought this empty statement which resulted in brutal short squeeze from 1,38 to 1,425 - 450 pips, only to crash two days after once it was clear none of the "pillars of stability" will work.

T
Yes that was Uber-retard mode, but weren't the EU banks repatriating funds for recapitalizing at that time also? That was the explanation I got for why the Euro went so vertical, not sure if it's the right one though.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #40,146
  • Jun 28, 2012 4:57am Jun 28, 2012 4:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
I share your sentiment. However, today I am prepared for surprise moves either way depending on comments from EU leaders. This means that PA and TA are only good till the sphincter relaxes.
a relaxed sphincter will only get the greeks rowdy
  • #40,147
  • Jun 28, 2012 4:57am Jun 28, 2012 4:57am
Quoting forex_growth
no offense bro

but if most people are short euro = why would they cry if euro came out with bad news?!

one could even argue you pigeon holing this thread with your view as an equal offense to one only rooting for euro in a specific way...

remember, all these are observations and one can only respond to certain things with subjective views.. if you want to see it as negative.. so be it, the rest look at it in a positive and growth like manner...

peace bro
Well said Doc.
  • #40,148
  • Jun 28, 2012 4:59am Jun 28, 2012 4:59am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
I would love the rain too if I was depressed and out of anti depressant.
lol. although i am sad to hear, that your on anti depresseants
  • #40,149
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:03am Jun 28, 2012 5:03am
move one direction and let's be done with it. is it > 1.2430 or < 1.2420
darn it

*hopefully not the latter. I reversed my position based on the whispers you sent to me
  • #40,150
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:10am Jun 28, 2012 5:10am
Quoting Halifax
Yes that was Uber-retard mode, but weren't the EU banks repatriating funds for recapitalizing at that time also? That was the explanation I got for why the Euro went so vertical, not sure if it's the right one though.
Repatriating of funds is bearish if you ask me. It was the time of liquidity squeeze in Europe, since after crisis, which struck mostly banks (first mortgage crash then bond crash) brilliant EU politicians made Basel rules more strict and therefore banks needed o gain even more capital to meet minimum requirements. Since they were totally unable to raise capital, it lead to start of lowering collateral requirements.

Edit: It was also time of hopes. There were lots of talks of how EFSF will save everyone, it had 600Bn of empty promises inside and it looked like someone may be that stupid and buy those promises. Ah, you know who was that stupid? You, my dear taxpayer. Coz EFSF bonds lie within ECB as a collateral for more debt.

Imo the most important factor which was boosting whole rally (april - november) was hopium. This was the time, when we have started to use this term. Between Oct 2011 and February 2012, ECB injected about 1,5 Tril into European banking sector via LTRO and Bond buying programs (without sterilization!). But the end of the rally, the final 450 pip spike, was imo caused by the summit. Hard to say really, there are always many factors interfering.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,151
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:14am Jun 28, 2012 5:14am
Quoting Halifax
Yes that was Uber-retard mode, but weren't the EU banks repatriating funds for recapitalizing at that time also? That was the explanation I got for why the Euro went so vertical, not sure if it's the right one though.
Ehem Nope. That was a short squeeze caused by the extension of the swap lines from the Fed to Europe to ease the credit freeze in the EZ and other international banks. It was also boosted by hopium injection from the ECB, the EC, the Fed and all the EZ leaders that all was fixed. Once it got started, it built momentum but as you can see from the charts, it quickly faded.

Here is a little write-up I did at the time.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post5035368
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,152
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:21am Jun 28, 2012 5:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
Ehem Nope. That was a short squeeze caused by the extension of the swap lines from the Fed to Europe t.
You sure? I remember they have eased swap lines @end of Novemer. They acted together like a single unit: FED, ECB, SNB, BoA and PBOC (!!!) which was very surprising.

Yet I think they may have eased those lines twice. Once in mid of that rally and again afterwards once they saw it didnt help.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,153
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:21am Jun 28, 2012 5:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
Ehem Nope. That was a short squeeze caused by the extension of the swap lines from the Fed to Europe to ease the credit freeze in the EZ and other international banks. It was also boosted by hopium injection from the ECB, the EC, the Fed and all the EZ leaders that all was fixed. Once it got started, it built momentum but as you can see from the charts, it quickly faded.

Here is a little write-up I did at the time.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post5035368
Spot on PT...v. good post.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #40,154
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:32am Jun 28, 2012 5:32am
Sisse, may I ask you to correct my post if you find anything?

Btw, the original point of discussion is quite obvious. If they come up with some empty statement (and they will) how high can hope rally run? I think it may be very high (up to, 285) and am staying out.

Edit: Btw, while you have agreed they have eased swap lines before the spike, do you remember date?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,155
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:35am Jun 28, 2012 5:35am
I'm a happy camper this morning. Before going to bed I lowered by hammer from 1.2535 down to 1.2520 seeing we had not closed the Monday gap down and something PT has said several times... A gap down does not always get closed in a down trend. I also had two other smaller position I was still holding, one at 1.2475 and another at 1.2486 with a TP at 1.2415

All 3 position got closed for gains of +105, +71 and +60.

The 1.2410 number was also the target of that bear flag I posted last Thursday, so my play on that trade is done.

1.2413 is also the 23.6% FIB line on the last leg down (mid May to June). The next key level I have is the lower channel of my daily channel at 1.2325.

So right now I'm going to wait to see if we get a retrace of the bear flag, like we did the last time and take another short from there. The up slope on it is pretty steep so it should be around 1.2435/40 (which is about our Daily S1 line today).

As somebody once said ... "Love it when a plan comes together"
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #40,156
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:37am Jun 28, 2012 5:37am
Quoting Cgb
I'm a happy camper this morning. Before going to bed I lowered by hammer from 1.2535 down to 1.2520 seeing we had not closed the Monday gap down and something PT has said several times... A gap down does not always get closed in a down trend. I also had two other smaller position I was still holding, one at 1.2475 and another at 1.2486 with a TP at 1.2415

All 3 position got closed for gains of +105, +71 and +60.

The 1.2410 number was also the target of that bear flag I posted last Thursday, so my play on that trade is done.

1.2413...
Congrats bud. Isn't it nice to wake up to green pips? Plan the trade, and trade the plan.
  • #40,157
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:38am Jun 28, 2012 5:38am
Quoting sisse
Spot on PT...v. good post.

sisse
Thanks Sisse. Coming from you, it means a lot.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,158
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:40am Jun 28, 2012 5:40am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Congrats bud. Isn't it nice to wake up to green pips? Plan the trade, and trade the plan.
A phrase right out of the PT bible of common sense
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,159
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:45am Jun 28, 2012 5:45am
Quoting Cgb
I'm a happy camper this morning. Before going to bed I lowered by hammer from 1.2535 down to 1.2520 seeing we had not closed the Monday gap down and something PT has said several times... A gap down does not always get closed in a down trend. I also had two other smaller position I was still holding, one at 1.2475 and another at 1.2486 with a TP at 1.2415

All 3 position got closed for gains of +105, +71 and +60.

The 1.2410 number was also the target of that bear flag I posted last Thursday, so my play on that trade is done. ...
Congrats Mr. C
Glad you're a happy camper.

http://microwaveexpert.files.wordpre...ppy-camper.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,160
  • Jun 28, 2012 5:53am Jun 28, 2012 5:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
Congrats Mr. C
Glad you're a happy camper.

http://microwaveexpert.files.wordpre...ppy-camper.jpg
Hey, I like that bus! I've been thiking of buying a Fifth Wheel recently and maybe if I do I'll pain it like that!

Thanks PT and FXSwissTrader. This is by far the best thread on FF and there's tons of excellent information to be learnt from it.

Plus, we always have the best pictures around (who wants to look at charts all day long)
I observe your reality but live my own.
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