EurAnalysis

Not good market to trade today. Only 40+ pips all day.

The Chinese do not take harsh measures overnight. I assure you no volatility will occur in one instance on a Chinese move.

Back to where we ended yesterday. Take a look at the 15M chart. Beauty of a "W" ... Now where's the "TF" that should go with that???

Ha ha, and a giant M for muppet on USD/CAD today too...the muppet being me of course! Expected 10290 area to be resistance turned support and went long ... only small position cause only learning and no problem leaving it open to see where it goes.

BTW Cgb I read all that TDI pdf you posted earlier, is your indi proprietary or can be used freely on MT4? ...would like to try it out if it is.

Normally a W bottom pattern is bullish, but I don't see any confirmation of that happening. No volume on the move up. We'll have to be patient to see where PA is going to take us. Look at the yellow line on hourly tdi, it's flat but still heading down on the 4 hr TF. I don't see any high impact fundies coming out til Thurs. Will focus on other pairs if we go sideways again tomorrow.

Wednesday, June 27th

All Day EUR German Prelim CPI

04:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals

06:00 GBP CBI Realized
Sales

08:00 EUR Germany June Preliminary Consumer Price Index


08:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders

08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders

10:00 USD Pending Home Sales

10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

19:50 USD Retail Sales

21:00 AUD HIANew Home Sales

21:00 NZD NBNZ Buisness Confidence

Thursday, June
28th

02:00 GBP Nationwide HPI

03:55 EUR German Unemployment Change

04:30 GBP Current Account

04:30 GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey; Final GDP

All Day EUR EU Economic Summit

Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Aution

08:30 USD Unemployment Claims

08:30 USD Final GDP

10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage

11:30 CAD FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks

13:00 GBP MPC Member Weale Speaks

18:45 NZD Building Permits


19:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence

19:30 JPY Household Spending; National and Tokyo CPI

19:50 JPY Prelim Industrial Production

21:30 AUD Private Sector Credit

Friday, June
29th
02:00 EUR German Retail Sales

02:45 EUR French Consumer Spending

03:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer


04:00 EUR M3 Money Supply

05:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate

All Day EUR EU Economic Summit

05:30 GBP BOE Gov King Speaks

05:30 GBP BOE Financial Stability Report

08:30 CAD GDP

08:30 CAD RMPI

08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index; Personal Spending

09:45 USD Chicago PMI

09:55 USD Revised UoM
Consumer Sentiment

ouch .... that hurt .......

Don't worry doc I will post my charts.

Waiting a good level to enter . Patience is the key.

You can use it freely. I would post the code for it but I just can't figure out how to get rid of that Windows 7 stupid lock thing. So here's a place to find the indicator and some good reading material along with it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post5525925

Cheers!

Yes, I think you're right. Clearly it was the pound that was strong today. Going to wait and see which one is hot after Asia opens tonight and try to grab a few pips before going to bed.

Cheers!

Well I'm not hanging around to watch a flat liner... so I'm going to go bbq some nice juicy tuna steaks

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-e8uW9QeDxu...20c32e7817.jpg

always lost is bit of negative name,try something which is more positive,otherwise there is a chance that it may effect ur trading with negative repurcussion.wa salaam.

PT i have put a new limit buy order for usdcad at 1.0219 .

Hey thanks, here's the one I picked

Edit: I think the pdf you posted earlier should suffice nicely!

Man, why you eat so late PT? Don't have bad dreams and sleep walk like Gomer Pyle....

Waalaikummussalaam.... & peace be upon u doc,

Point noted and thanks.

Why I choose such name . It is just for FF Forum only. It is a "reverse psychology" . The actual meaning is the opposite to the name, indirectly. Other reason is to remind myself don't be egoistic and be humble persons.

Doc, I'm ordering this briyani for my lunch today......

From what I have read, the entire financial situation is one big engineering project to create a situation where certain people can offer the solution to a world on its knees: one world government. The EU was/is a step, and here is their attempted agenda for Thursday and Friday:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...-save-eurozone

Leaders draft federal plan to save the eurozone

Four European presidents make proposals to ramp up the powers of eurozone authorities over national governments.
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/...f-the--008.jpgHerman Van Rompuy of the European Council has proposed, with three other European presidents, that the eurozone takes on more centralised powers. Photograph: Rex Features


European leaders have drafted a radical plan to turn the 17 countries of the eurozone into a full-fledged political federation within a decade in an attempt to placate the financial markets by demonstrating a political will to save the single currency in the medium-term.

The incendiary proposals for banking, fiscal, and economic unions resulting in a "political union" are to be debated at an EU summit on Thursday and Friday. Following two bad-tempered meetings of European leaders in Mexico and Rome over the past week, the Brussels summit looks likely to see major clashes over the future of Europe as well as the immediate crisis surrounding sovereign debt, bad banks and the euro's survival.

The crisis has shifted from the periphery of the EU to its very heart, with Berlin and Paris seriously at odds for the first time since the Greek drama started 30 months ago. The logic of the draft proposals will also pose major dilemmas for David Cameron, perhaps putting Britain at a crossroads in its relationship with the continent.

The seven-page document, obtained by the Guardian, has been drafted by the "gang of four" – a quartet of European presidents: Herman Van Rompuy of the European Council, Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank, José Manuel Barroso of the European commission, and Jean-Claude Juncker of the 17-country eurogroup.

It calls for a quick start on establishing a new European banking union, says that the ECB could be given supervisory authority over EU banks quickly, and proposes common resolution funds (for winding up bad banks, funded by a banking levy to spare EU taxpayers) as well as a common deposit guarantee scheme for Europe's savers.

Berlin is already pooh-poohing the notion, unwilling to "mutualise" liability for other country's savers or banks any time soon. The paper also says that the eurozone's new permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), could be used as the "fiscal backstop" for a banking union, opening the way to direct recapitalisation of troubled banks, also opposed by the key power, Germany.

Britain is adamantly opposed to joining a banking union and placing much of Europe's biggest financial centre, the City, under the authority of the ECB. Arguing that the union should be purely eurozone as a response to the euro crisis, Cameron will demand "safeguards" quarantining the British financial sector while ensuring that any new financial regime does not impair Britian's interests in the EU's single market.

The Germans appear reluctant to offer any concessions, though, and the draft says the banking union should extend beyond the eurozone.
"An integrated financial framework should cover all EU member states, whilst allowing for specific differentiations between euro and non-euro area member states on certain parts of the new framework that are preponderantly linked to the functioning of the monetary union and the stability of the euro area rather than to the single market."

Analysts say that a banking union cannot work without a eurozone fiscal union and the paper proposes sweeping new eurozone powers, including options, fiercely resisted by Berlin, for sharing liability for the debt of eurozone countries – eurobonds. The paper seeks to accommodate German objections by bowing to chancellor Angela Merkel's new mantra – "no liability without controls".

"In a medium term perspective, the issuance of common debt could be explored as an element of such a fiscal union and subject to progress on fiscal integration. Steps towards the introduction of joint and several sovereign liabilities could be considered as long as a robust framework for budgetary discipline and competitiveness is in place to avoid moral hazard," the paper says.

"Progress in the pooling of decisions on budgets would be accompanied with commensurate steps towards the pooling of risks. Several options for partial common debt issuance have been proposed, such as the pooling of some short-term funding instruments on a limited and conditional basis, or the gradual roll-over into a redemption fund. Different forms of fiscal solidarity could also be envisaged."

Full fiscal union, the paper says, will ultimately require what is tantamount to a eurozone finance ministry – "the development at the euro area level of a fiscal body, such as a treasury office".

On budgetary and economic policy-making, the proposals ramp up the powers of EU or eurozone authorities to dictate and enforce national decision-taking, for example, on labour markets or "tax co-ordination".
It also suggests that European authorities could intervene to ensure national civil service and other reforms, as is currently being tried as part of the Greek bailout.

"Measures to strengthen the political and administrative capacity of national institutions and foster national ownership of reforms could be taken where necessary, as this is a vital condition for the efficient implementation of growth-enhancing reforms."

The gang of four paper calls for much more intrusive eurozone powers over national budgets, fiscal and economic policy-making.

"Upper limits on the annual budget balance and on government debt levels of individual member states could be agreed in common. Under these rules, the issuance of government debt beyond the level agreed in common would have to be justified and receive prior approval. Subsequently, the euro area level would be in a position to require changes to budgetary envelopes if they are in violation of fiscal rules."

The four presidents ask for a mandate from this week's summit to draw up "a specific and time-bound road map for the achievement of genuine Economic and Monetary Union", stating they should deliver an interim report in October and more detailed plans by the end of the year.

There are certain to be major conflicts over the proposals before that happens. The likelihood is that the banking union can be established without having to resort to the hazardous step of re-opening the EU's Lisbon Treaty. But the other ambitions would require reopening the EU's decade-old quandary over a European constitution.

France will be deeply reluctant to surrender so much sovereign powers to new eurozone authorities, while Germany will only accept liability for others if the powers are federalised.

Amid deepseated Franco-German divisions, Merkel is to go to Paris on the eve of Thursday's summit to try to strike a deal with French president François Hollande.

The Wednesday evening dinner is being preceded today by talks in Paris between the German, French, Spanish, and Italian finance ministers.
For the master plan to work, Germany would also need a new Basic Law or constitution, as suggested at the weekend by Wolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister.

Hollande would have a hard time delivering a socialist party still deeply divided on Europe ever since the French voted against a European constitution in 2005. Hollande's foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, spearheaded the No campaign.

One of the Glass-Steagall Act provisions was Section 20 of the Banking Act of 1933. Section 20 prohibited Federal Reserve member banks from affiliating with organizations that "engaged principally in the issue, floatation, underwriting, public sale, or distribution of stocks, bonds, debentures, notes, or other securities." For many years, the administrative limit for not being "principally engaged" was that underwriting and dealing accounted for 5 percent or less of a subsidiary’s gross revenue. As banks became larger, underwriting and dealing became cost effective even with the 5 percent revenue limit. Over time, banking organizations began petitioning for larger limits, which the Federal Reserve agreed to based on assessments of the risks and benefits to the economy, with the limit eventually rising to 25 percent in 1997.

Prepared by
Thomas M. Hoenig
President and CEO
Charles S. Morris
Vice President and Economist
May 2011
This document does not represent the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve or the Federal Reserve System. Michal Kowalik, an Economist in the Banking Research Department at the Bank, contributed substantially to the proposal. The authors would like to thank Viral Acharya, Matt Richardson, Larry White, Richard Sylla, Thomas Philippon, Lasse Pedersen, Jacob Goldfield, and Nada Mora for helpful comments and suggestions.

http://www.kansascityfed.org/publica...m-05-24-11.pdf

Improve supervision - The Dodd-Frank Act made the Federal Reserve the consolidated supervisor for BHCs and FHCs with more than $50 billion in assets and nonbank financial companies determined to be systemically important. The Act also requires the Federal Reserve to establish more stringent prudential standards for these organizations than for other banking organizations.

- We do not believe enhanced supervision will be effective without restricting the activities of the largest financial companies. First, there is evidence that the largest financial companies did not fully understand the extent of their risk exposures for a variety of reasons.17If the organization does not fully understand the risks, it is infeasible for the regulatory authority to understand the risks and effectively supervise the organization.

- Second, many of the activities that pose the greatest risks to the organization and to the broader financial system and economy are not conducive to prudential supervision because of the short-term nature of the risks. As noted earlier, activities that have high short-term risks cannot be effectively monitored because supervision and regulation occurs periodically at potentially irregular intervals.
- Essentially, the overall regulatory system for the largest financial companies broke down by not keeping up with the evolution of the financial system.

Commercial and investment banking organizations began engaging in activities that the market, bank management, and regulators cannot assess, monitor, and/or control very well. As a result, expanding supervision to the same activities that cannot be supervised well will not fix the problem.

• Guaranteeing repo – a variety of proposals have been made, many of which include provisions to limit government liability, such as limiting collateral to very safe securities and charging a fee.18- The idea behind this approach is that repo is a primary source of funds for much of the shadow banking system, but also provides value to large financial and nonfinancial companies that have a demand for repo because they want a risk-free asset for cash management purposes and bank deposits are only insured up to $250,000.


CONCLUSION

We see no reason why the government and taxpayer should step in and insure positions taken by sophisticated investors with abilities to analyze the risk of securities that back their loans. Therefore, there is no rationale for the government to provide guarantees even in exchange for heavier regulation and supervision of repo markets.