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  • #662,161
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:01am Jun 26, 2012 10:01am
Quoting attila
Yes, you are one of those. Fuck you. Same thing you did to wulf, and then papa kenfen came to your rescue..
Seriously mate ??? Chill
  • #662,162
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:02am Jun 26, 2012 10:02am
Some people are plain ignorant
  • #662,163
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:03am Jun 26, 2012 10:03am
Quoting Piters
Seriously mate ??? Chill
Yes Piters, I'm chill.. Just can't stand assholes coming over here saying "good luck", "LOL" just to feel they're important..That's all..
  • #662,164
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:03am Jun 26, 2012 10:03am
Ok-

4hr has indicated some "softness' around the 1.2492 levels. so scalpers may take 10 or so...

Regards
  • #662,165
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:05am Jun 26, 2012 10:05am
short from 1.25
  • #662,166
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:12am Jun 26, 2012 10:12am
Good day to you,

Please do not take this seriously...

Those virgins are working the 4hr. I see a possible bullish divergence on 4hr..

that's all

Regards
  • #662,167
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:19am Jun 26, 2012 10:19am
Quoting Esssex
Don't worry, I know the cost of a EU break up. All parties will be badly hit but Germany's downside is still not as bad as what PIIGS will go through, some may argue otherwise.

Their people wouldn't be able to live through the years of inflation by going back to their old currencies. Not to mention the lack of natural resources in IGS, they may face an increase in exports but at what cost? They don't possess comparative advantage in many industries except agriculture.

Import costs for natural resources in order to turn them into exports will...
Roll on, back to the good old peseta, drachma and cheap bucket holidays.
  • #662,168
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:27am Jun 26, 2012 10:27am
Quoting attila
I disagree with most of what you said. It will be bad for the PIIGS in the short run, yes(Argentina did it in early 2000 and look at them now)... but being able to devalue their "new" currency will make them competitive on the international market.. On the other hand Germany will not be able to sell their industrial products in the Southern Europe because they'll be too expensive. The U.S. market.. well.. they'll compete with our industry + China and all the rest of the developed Asian countries..

Also Italy and Spain are not really undeveloped...
Ahh Argentina, may I remind you that Argentina is a country rich in natural resources. If any of the IGS countries were rich in natural resources, I would agree with you that they have a lower downside risk than Germany. With the exception of Portugal and Ireland the rest are not rich in natural resources.

Argentina had an abundance of natural resources so a minor economic restructuring into one where they produced products that they had comparative advantage(Tapping into their natural resources). Hence, a weaker currency provided them with larger export numbers and yet because of their large natural resources, they did not need to import raw materials to convert into goods.

IGS on the other hand doesn't, in fact many of the European countries are poor in natural resources. So they rely on importing their raw materials in order to produce goods.

Now this is applicable if your gains from exports is larger than your losses from imports. Southern Europe, while significant does not make up the bulk of Germany's exports.

Look at Italy, what are their main imports? Raw materials, metals, energy. Spain? Fuel and raw materials. Greece? Fuel. Their lack of natural resources causes them to heavily rely on imports to manufacture goods which a 40%(according to your article) increase will smack them in the face.

US markets on the other hand, is not big of a deal. They have always had an emphasis on consumption to drive their economy rather than exports. Go have a look at the figures, they import more than they export. Which is the path I am advocating for Germany in the event of an EU break up.

Someone needs to be importing all the goods that these developing Asian countries are producing. So why not let that someone become Germany?

Oh and btw if developing Asian countries can smack Germany's exports, they sure as hell can smack the IGS's exports as well. Why? Asia is rich in natural resources, they can drop the prices of their goods and not have to worry about the costs of importing raw materials. IGS still has to balance their cost of importing of raw materials while trying to remain competitive in the export markets. No comparative advantage.
  • #662,169
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:31am Jun 26, 2012 10:31am
Quoting TauTrader
Ok-

4hr has indicated some "softness' around the 1.2492 levels. so scalpers may take 10 or so...

Regards
So there is the 10...

Regards
  • #662,170
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:42am Jun 26, 2012 10:42am
important factor that most forget about, very key at the moment especially as the markets are on this life support

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ecbs-b...900-pips-lower

enjoy
  • #662,171
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:53am Jun 26, 2012 10:53am
Hello, how big are chances to return to level 1,26 ??? At 1h chart I see the hammer of last 3 hours so probably EU goes to north.
  • #662,172
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:55am Jun 26, 2012 10:55am
Quoting yorkie
Hello, how big are chances to return to level 1,26 ??? At 1h chart I see the hammer of last 3 hours so probably EU goes to north.
probably quite good as we could bounce here and there are too many shorts in EURUSD.

But if we break down much further and hit new lows then a long time.
  • #662,173
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:02am Jun 26, 2012 11:02am
The true is we are below 1.25, 4H and Daily is bearish, if you do long term trades...i think the best option is Short...
Just my opinion.
  • #662,174
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:04am Jun 26, 2012 11:04am
Having or not natural resources is not everything. Using them in a smart way is.. Russia (huge natural resources), not much output, and Japan (pretty much nothing underneath), huge output (maybe not that large anymore, but still an industrial power house)..

Also, looking at the deficit balance in isolation is not the right way.. All countries are interconnected.. I have a deficit balance with my local groceries store.. Is that a bad thing?

I agree, the U.S. is driven by consumption. That drives the balance higher.. That's bad but one has to choose. You are either a saver and an exporter, or a consumer and an importer.. Can't have it both ways..

Quoting Esssex
Ahh Argentina, may I remind you that Argentina is a country rich in natural resources. If any of the IGS countries were rich in natural resources, I would agree with you that they have a lower downside risk than Germany. With the exception of Portugal and Ireland the rest are not rich in natural resources.

Argentina had an abundance of natural resources so a minor economic restructuring into one where they produced products that they had comparative advantage(Tapping into their natural resources). Hence, a weaker currency provided them with larger...
  • #662,175
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:31am Jun 26, 2012 11:31am
Good day,

Like Martin Luther King.... I have a dream. One day, to trade at 1.2570 - 1.2575.

See soon.

Regards
  • #662,176
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:31am Jun 26, 2012 11:31am
Quoting Esssex
Someone needs to be importing all the goods that these developing Asian countries are producing. So why not let that someone become Germany?
I missed this. It's an interesting point, but remember the leverage is on the side of the importer. If Germany/U.S. can't or won't buy anymore, the exporters can produce all they want and it's not going to help(the case for Germany-piigs today)... but I agree, good point.
  • #662,177
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:39am Jun 26, 2012 11:39am
Is BUY on BAGOVINO METHOD??? check picture
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  • #662,178
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:41am Jun 26, 2012 11:41am
Quoting attila
Having or not natural resources is not everything. Using them in a smart way is.. Russia (huge natural resources), not much output, and Japan (pretty much nothing underneath), huge output (maybe not that large anymore, but still an industrial power house)..

Also, looking at the deficit balance in isolation is not the right way.. All countries are interconnected.. I have a deficit balance with my local groceries store.. Is that a bad thing?
Now you are making assumptions that bring variables into play that cannot be quantifiable til the event has taken place(Resource efficiency, Labor productivity just to name some).

I only look at the facts and figures with the assumption that every country is perfectly efficient. I mean if you want to bring things that involve human nature into this debate, that is your choice.

Also as I have already said in the previous post is that in a global market, IGS cannot hope to compete on equal standing with Asian exporters. I'm sure I do not need to repeat the reason like a broken recorder.
  • #662,179
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:43am Jun 26, 2012 11:43am
I want to get something straight for a minute just to see if I understand correctly. The following are the 10 year Spanish and Italian bonds:

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing...countrycode=ES

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing...countrycode=IT

Where it says 6.22 and 6.86, this is really 6.22% and 6.86% right? Then why are the U.S. stock markets ignoring this?
  • #662,180
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:50am Jun 26, 2012 11:50am
We been down for a few days,time to crawl back an take out my longs
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