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  • #661,541
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:37am Jun 25, 2012 2:37am
Quoting diggo
Grrr.. my internet cut out when I posted a long reply

Anyway, it took me a while to realise that it's all about r/r. My trading has improved significantly since the penny dropped.

95% is brilliant, I think you're being modest
No worries. Keep an eye on the 1.2500 area now and see how she reacts there...
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  • #661,542
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:39am Jun 25, 2012 2:39am
Quoting Geppy
1:3 is a fine r/r.

A lot of people struggle with the perception that they risk missing out on a trade. It kills a lot of traders.

For example, you could wait for 1.2520ish before selling, but what if it drops to 1.2440 first? Oops...

Another approach is to sell only half of your desired position on the break and sell the next half only if it pulls back to 1.2520ish. If it doesn't, sell the next half somewhere lower.

I absolutely LOVE to pyramid my trades. On Friday, I added shorts at 1.2575 and 1.2580 and took only 6 pips heat...
You definitely need patience in this game. I used to jump in all over the place in fear of missing out on a trade. It killed my account.

I actually use the half/half approach you described quite often. With the short just now, I entered with a smaller position first and was waiting for the better price to increase my aggregate and reduce my risk.

Thanks again for your wisdom. If I could give you a vouch, I would
  • #661,543
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:41am Jun 25, 2012 2:41am
Quoting Geppy
No worries. Keep an eye on the 1.2500 area now and see how she reacts there...
Watching. I also have my eye on EUR/JPY coming to some key support.

Also, heavy longs waiting on Silver @ 2618/13 major support, stops below 2600/2606. r/r here 1:27 to 1:55. Might reduce my lot sizes after your input
  • #661,544
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:42am Jun 25, 2012 2:42am
So breakout happened and there are two levels to watch 1,2440 and 1,2300/1,2287 area for all H4 fans of course.
If the whole move from 1,3240 is taken in consideration we should be on our way down aprox 400/420 pips down below.

http://s18.postimage.org/tihmjoouh/image.gif

http://s18.postimage.org/vobxe6sax/image.gif


hosting images
swing it!
  • #661,545
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:44am Jun 25, 2012 2:44am
Quoting KillerWhale
With 1% of your capital on the line for every pip in your sl range?? Come on, you're not serious. He's talking about 1 position 1:100 leverage

Edit: what your broker gives you is another thing, doesn't matter if it is 1:100 or 1:400
I myself am limited by Oanda's 1:50 and for me that's more than enough
lot size is same regardless 100:1 or 50:1, no? it's still same $10 per pip if full lot.
  • #661,546
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:45am Jun 25, 2012 2:45am
What stops the euro I think it's cable. You just need a break below 1.5551.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post5787979
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #661,547
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:45am Jun 25, 2012 2:45am
I'd prefer to see a clean close below 90. I remember last month how much of a bitch that level was to break.
  • #661,548
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:49am Jun 25, 2012 2:49am
Quoting diggo
Watching. I also have my eye on EUR/JPY coming to some key support.

Also, heavy longs waiting on Silver @ 2618/13 major support, stops below 2600/2606. r/r here 1:27 to 1:55. Might reduce my lot sizes after your input
Your biggest decision will be if you actually want to cover your Euro shorts at 1.2440ish... I talked myself out of two profit targets I had set last week and just continue to hold shorts.

Everyone is talking about the 1.2440ish level, but there's no great reason to stop there in my opinion. If anywhere, we should see some hesitation in the 1.2465 area where the 61.8% fib retracement level of the move from late may to the high on June 17th comes in.

So, if we trade to 1.2440... that last fib support is busted and I see no reason why we should continue lower.

I would only cover if I really felt we'd see a significant pullback, or if I simply couldn't mentally handle the amount of paper profits I'd be holding at that point.
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  • #661,549
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:49am Jun 25, 2012 2:49am
btw killer, daily is saying all bear on my end.
  • #661,550
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:51am Jun 25, 2012 2:51am
I see 1.2463 as a support..
  • #661,551
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:51am Jun 25, 2012 2:51am
Quoting godim
What stops the euro I think it's cable. You just need a break below 1.5551.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post5787979
nah, cable was a nice leading indicator since Friday.
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  • #661,552
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:52am Jun 25, 2012 2:52am
Equities are not following EU moves.
Same thing for Oil.

I'd be cautious.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #661,553
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:54am Jun 25, 2012 2:54am
Quoting Izanami
price is oversold careful guyss.....
there is nothing like over sold or over buyed
  • #661,554
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:55am Jun 25, 2012 2:55am
Quoting Geppy
nah, cable was a nice leading indicator since Friday.
Cable behind even earlier. I am not saying that it is leading. I say that is a limiting factor.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #661,555
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:55am Jun 25, 2012 2:55am
Quoting kuroro001
Equities are not following EU moves.
Same thing for Oil.

I'd be cautious.
???

What sort of equity and oil charts are you looking at?
  • #661,556
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:56am Jun 25, 2012 2:56am
Cable is back against the euro by two days.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #661,557
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:58am Jun 25, 2012 2:58am
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  • #661,558
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:58am Jun 25, 2012 2:58am
Quoting kuroro001
Equities are not following EU moves.
Same thing for Oil.

I'd be cautious.
Correlation seem to have broken down recently with too many interventions. I have not used it as a deal breaker for my trades anymore.

I see the down move as a covering of the QE3 bets made in the past weeks of blind optimism.
  • #661,559
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:58am Jun 25, 2012 2:58am
Quoting Geppy
Your biggest decision will be if you actually want to cover your Euro shorts at 1.2440ish... I talked myself out of two profit targets I had set last week and just continue to hold shorts.

Everyone is talking about the 1.2440ish level, but there's no great reason to stop there in my opinion. If anywhere, we should see some hesitation in the 1.2465 area where the 61.8% fib retracement level of the move from late may to the high on June 17th comes in.

So, if we trade to 1.2440... that last fib support is busted and I see no reason why we...
Thanks, I missed that fib level. I may take some profit there and leave the rest open. 2435/42 looks reasonably strong to me. I'm not sure if I could hold it beyond that level. I'm not one to get greedy when it comes to taking profit.

If it does break, not all a loss.. I can look for an opportunity to long sub 2400. But I will be going long at 2435/42 first, stops around 30 or below. I still think we are in the mid-term bull. But I am long term bearish, ultimately looking for sub 1.19
  • #661,560
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:59am Jun 25, 2012 2:59am
Quoting SugarTrade
???

What sort of equity and oil charts are you looking at?
Okay nevermind, my equitie charts are frozen, damn broker
Sorry
COT: The precious data ignored
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