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  • #321
  • Edited 9:24pm May 12, 2006 9:19pm | Edited 9:24pm
Perhaps that is true, but you need to go back and read where his short is and his stop placement. So far his stop has not been hit and it looks like he is in profit right now about 25 pips... ultimately you probably will be correct, but this is a risk free trade, so it does not really matter how much is on the line, unless his stop gets run through and not activated...



Quoting Far From Average
I hope you learned your lesson today. You tried to fade the market and didn't wait for it to show you its hand. Today it had pocket aces.
  • #322
  • May 12, 2006 9:53pm May 12, 2006 9:53pm
i have a long at @1.2700 , and i dont want to get out now ,hope it will reach at 1.3000 , event 1.3500:
  • #323
  • May 12, 2006 10:36pm May 12, 2006 10:36pm
Quoting smjones
Perhaps that is true, but you need to go back and read where his short is and his stop placement. So far his stop has not been hit and it looks like he is in profit right now about 25 pips... ultimately you probably will be correct, but this is a risk free trade, so it does not really matter how much is on the line, unless his stop gets run through and not activated...
Oops. Meant to quote bigballer.

This is a rough call. The thing is, a lot of people have been talking about the market turning for days now. Trying to fade big turns (especially on Cable, though of course this was Euro) can be absolute suicide. I blew a demo account trying to do that and that was it for me. Think back to the vegas 4hr document. The rhoulette story is very illustrative. People keep fading because it's gotta be black this time, it just has to be! It's gotta change. But of course at the end, they are screwed.

Also, putting 50% of your account on one trade is horrible money management. It's like playing in traffic-yeah you might not get killed right away, but one of these days a semi is going to flatten you like a pancake.

I just want to discourage people from forming bad babits is all.
  • #324
  • Edited 11:10pm May 12, 2006 10:40pm | Edited 11:10pm
Yup, I agree with you completely here this trade is probably a waste of time.
And I sure would not put up 5% much less 50% on a single trade.

It is strange how everyone wants to predict direction rather than just trade what they see. and then trade what happens in the future, in the future...

But, you never know, maybe it will work out and he will make a ton of money...
Scott

Quoting Far From Average
Oops. Meant to quote bigballer.

This is a rough call. The thing is, a lot of people have been talking about the market turning for days now. Trying to fade big turns (especially on Cable, though of course this was Euro) can be absolute suicide. I blew a demo account trying to do that and that was it for me. Think back to the vegas 4hr document. The rhoulette story is very illustrative. People keep fading because it's gotta be black this time, it just has to be! It's gotta change. But of course at the end, they are screwed.

Also, putting 50% of your account on one trade is horrible money management. It's like playing in traffic-yeah you might not get killed right away, but one of these days a semi is going to flatten you like a pancake.

I just want to discourage people from forming bad babits is all.
  • #325
  • May 13, 2006 5:28am May 13, 2006 5:28am
Quoting adam3000
i have a long at @1.2700 , and i dont want to get out now ,hope it will reach at 1.3000 , event 1.3500:
You hope??!!! If all what's left for you is hope, then get the hell out immediately...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #326
  • May 13, 2006 5:30am May 13, 2006 5:30am
Quoting Far From Average
Oops. Meant to quote bigballer.

This is a rough call. The thing is, a lot of people have been talking about the market turning for days now. Trying to fade big turns (especially on Cable, though of course this was Euro) can be absolute suicide. I blew a demo account trying to do that and that was it for me. Think back to the vegas 4hr document. The rhoulette story is very illustrative. People keep fading because it's gotta be black this time, it just has to be! It's gotta change. But of course at the end, they are screwed.

Also, putting 50% of your account on one trade is horrible money management. It's like playing in traffic-yeah you might not get killed right away, but one of these days a semi is going to flatten you like a pancake.

I just want to discourage people from forming bad babits is all.

Great example....It won't be any different this time too...The market will just turn the other way and correct itself down when all the short attempting traders give up & start going long....


Thanks,

Nader
  • #327
  • May 13, 2006 9:59am May 13, 2006 9:59am
Good morning everyone:

I found this on the CFTC website. It is the COT report from May 9th....

Looks like the commercials are short and the little guys have called "UNCLE" and switch to long.

EURO FX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-099741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 05/09/06 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 125,000 EUROS) OPEN INTEREST: 198,501
COMMITMENTS
87,975 15,064 1,780 43,091 142,504 132,846 159,348 65,655 39,153

CHANGES FROM 05/02/06 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 11,427)
-2,640 -1,077 434 3,939 4,354 1,733 3,711 9,694 7,716

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
44.3 7.6 0.9 21.7 71.8 66.9 80.3 33.1 19.7

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 128)
65 20 15 27 29 96 60


I hope you all find this helpfull.

FYI: The commercials are still short the YEN. I would like to see a change in sentiment for the YEN as that will support the correction on the EURO.

Johnny
JohnnyPhoenix He who controls the SPICE controls the Forex universe!
  • #328
  • May 13, 2006 10:08am May 13, 2006 10:08am
Quoting narafa
Great example....It won't be any different this time too...The market will just turn the other way and correct itself down when all the short attempting traders give up & start going long....


Thanks,

Nader
Why don't we just wait till monday to see If I am wrong...

I just hope if it wipes my stop loss to go up for good and not turn down afterwards.But from what I see everything is still normal and the potential downside is still the same.None said that this would be an easy and painless reversal.
  • #329
  • May 13, 2006 5:33pm May 13, 2006 5:33pm
I am short on the euro too, however I would never ever risk more than 5% on this trade.
  • #330
  • May 13, 2006 5:42pm May 13, 2006 5:42pm
Quoting smjones
Yup, I agree with you completely here this trade is probably a waste of time.
And I sure would not put up 5% much less 50% on a single trade.

It is strange how everyone wants to predict direction rather than just trade what they see. and then trade what happens in the future, in the future...

But, you never know, maybe it will work out and he will make a ton of money...
Scott
Well, I wouldn't be going long right now either, at least not on that time frame. Maybe a long scalp or two, but I digress.

It is going to turn and at least retrace a bit pretty soon. The dangerous practice is trying to get in right before it turns because you're so greedy that you want to grab every single pip out of the move. That's when cable or euro stalls, you fade it and it just keeps chugging along and you're down a hundred and fifty pips before you know what hit you. Eventually you cry uncle or get margin called, and then it will turn right back around.

The fact is that it took me a long time to finally accept that I might be able to grab 30% of a move safely, and maybe I will get really lucky and grab 60 or 70. But when you get really greedy and unrealistic you will get smashed. The funniest thing is if you can get 20% of these moves consistently you will be rich rich rich!
  • #331
  • May 14, 2006 3:28pm May 14, 2006 3:28pm
I am also short eur/usd with no stopp loss.Also I am properly taking care of drawdown if it goes to 1.3600.
Till now it has imprinted 1.2946.
  • #332
  • May 14, 2006 8:53pm May 14, 2006 8:53pm
With the US trade deficit's record numbers being pushed to sidelines, added with speculations that Bush administration is happy about USD being weaker which would boost the exports, I feel there is still long way to go before any major correction or reversals.

I'm long with cable and short on USD/JPY pairs. Let's see what the market tells in the coming weeks.

Shan
  • #333
  • May 15, 2006 7:35am May 15, 2006 7:35am
Finally,

Maybe a small retrace??
"We are the superior beings, we obey no one!"
  • #334
  • May 15, 2006 8:15am May 15, 2006 8:15am
so...could it be today the first sign of dolars retracement? I am still not sure, but it seems today the market loves the dolar and since the opening of London this morning the dolar rallied against the euro with what seems as no stop.....

TICS data was less than forecast however enough to feed deficit and we see that the market at the moment is looking for direction not wanting to commit for dolar strenght but not wanting to try new euro highs....

we shall see....whatever happens today still my feel is euro will try again soon 1.30....
  • #335
  • May 15, 2006 8:20am May 15, 2006 8:20am
I was surprised at the tepid response to the "bad" US news. I think the bulls are exhausted and we may finish today below 1.2800.
  • #336
  • May 15, 2006 8:22am May 15, 2006 8:22am
Well see,

It hit my channel line exactly on the small retrace...

so I got out of my short for now.
"We are the superior beings, we obey no one!"
  • #337
  • May 15, 2006 8:32am May 15, 2006 8:32am
Prices look to be supported by the lower channel and weekly MA's. I think it would have to drop below 1.2775 before it tanks any further.

Anyone agree?
  • #338
  • May 15, 2006 8:33am May 15, 2006 8:33am
Top man, did you use cot data? or how did you know it was gonna fall that much?
  • #339
  • Edited 8:42am May 15, 2006 8:34am | Edited 8:42am
Quoting AlphaPip
Prices look to be supported by the lower channel and weekly MA's. I think it would have to drop below 1.2775 before it tanks any further.

Anyone agree?
1.2770-75 is the LOWER channel line. My higher was around 1.2800
"We are the superior beings, we obey no one!"
  • #340
  • May 15, 2006 8:37am May 15, 2006 8:37am
I am short at 1.2708...that means now -100 pips (last friday -200 plus...so it's getting better)...Do you guys think that this week I may turn positive at all? Any idea?
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