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  • #661,521
  • Jun 25, 2012 1:48am Jun 25, 2012 1:48am
Quoting diggo
Geppy, I read your post in the Useless thread.. you said don't long until the support holds. At which point do you determine that it has held? By that time, wouldn't the price be much further away from the risk?

I longed with a tight stop on the first test. Learning from Gator, I enter as close to the risk as possible to minimise my losses and maximise profits. Just like to get your thoughts on this
The market almost never reverses in one shot... meaning, you'll get multiple shots at an entry if support was to hold.

I don't pick up pennies in front of bulldozers. I go for 100+ pip swings almost ALWAYS. So, I guess if you're going for something like 20 pips, it's maybe not a bad approach.

But, we broke 2 ascending trendlines on Friday and I've been holding some hefty shorts since 1.2700 What basis does anyone have to think it's going to reverse?

There's nothing wrong with your trade and I agree, if trying to catch a falling knife, you should definitely do it at support.

Price action simply wasn't telling me that this thing is ready to turn around yet. Maybe it's just experience.
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  • #661,522
  • Jun 25, 2012 1:52am Jun 25, 2012 1:52am
Quoting diggo
Quite aggressive. Looks like the next stop will be 2442/35
2470 has a bunch of model sell orders sitting on it --
  • #661,523
  • Jun 25, 2012 1:53am Jun 25, 2012 1:53am
Quoting Motion
Most times, it's about paying attention to details. Shall we pay attention to this?

The first ellipse around 1.3345 in the picture below:
Day 1: range day
Day 2: outside day taking out stops
Day 3: inside day
Day 4: doji day showing indecision
Day 5: bear day showing decision
Day 6: range day showing bulls trying to fight
Day x: dead bulls on the run...

The second ellipse around 1.2807
Fill in the gaps...

Trade well mates, no one knows tomorrow.

Kindest regards,
Motion
Quoting Motion
Fresh Short 2571. SL 2584. TP 2436
Next stop 2473. SL moved to 2535.
Don't just beat the markets, leave bruises.
  • #661,524
  • Jun 25, 2012 1:56am Jun 25, 2012 1:56am
Thanks man. Must be a lack of experience/screen time on my part. But I am learning from the best, thankyou for adding to my knowledge base

As for picking up pennies in front of bulldozers, it's quite the opposite for me actually. My targets are generally 100-200 pips+ as well. Giving up 8-10 pips maximum doesn't seem so bad. Basically I only need a winner once every 10 trades to become profitable.

But yes, I need to work on my entries. Entering at short term weak support usually ends in tears. Can I ask, how big are your stop losses generally?

Quoting Geppy
The market almost never reverses in one shot... meaning, you'll get multiple shots at an entry if support was to hold.

I don't pick up pennies in front of bulldozers. I go for 100+ pip swings almost ALWAYS. So, I guess if you're going for something like 20 pips, it's maybe not a bad approach.

But, we broke 2 ascending trendlines on Friday and I've been holding some hefty shorts since 1.2700 What basis does anyone have to think it's going to reverse?

There's nothing wrong with your trade and I agree, if trying to catch a falling knife,...
  • #661,525
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:03am Jun 25, 2012 2:03am
Quoting diggo
Thanks man. Must be a lack of experience/screen time on my part. But I am learning from the best, thankyou for adding to my knowledge base

As for picking up pennies in front of bulldozers, it's quite the opposite for me actually. My targets are generally 100-200 pips+ as well. Giving up 8-10 pips maximum doesn't seem so bad. Basically I only need a winner once every 10 trades to become profitable.

But yes, I need to work on my entries. Entering at short term weak support usually ends in tears. Can I ask, how big are your stop losses generally?...
100-200pip targets with 8-10SL? Seems a bit foolish to me... I would never give myself enough credit to be able to pick spots that perfectly.

I don't have a steadfast rule for how big my SL is. However, I'm pretty comfortable taking 30 pips of heat or so given that my targets are so large. With my current Euro shorts I took about 37 pips of heat, but I'm now ~200 pips in profit.

My win percentage is much higher (about 95%) and I never have a risk/reward of less than 1:2... usually 1:3 or more.

Think of it this way... if you were going to take a drive somewhere and it generally takes somewhere around 4 hours to get there, would you feel comfortable guessing your time of arrival with an error of only 8-10 minutes? With traffic, unplanned bathroom breaks, etc. I doubt you'd be right very often. But I bet you'd be right nearly every time if you expanded that margin of error to 30-45min.

Same difference
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  • #661,526
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:04am Jun 25, 2012 2:04am
Hi guys,
Current EUR/USD situation.

Take care,
Seb

Ps> More charts on my blog.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd ew h4.jpg Size: 156 KB
  • #661,527
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:04am Jun 25, 2012 2:04am
One more thing Geppy, if I may,

Should I be looking to short after a small breakout like this? I have trouble looking for the best entry price in these circumstances.

I just shorted @ 2505 with stops at 2524, which could be a little premature. I'd like to know how close to the previous support it should be before I enter.

Apologies if this is too "newbie-ish"
  • #661,528
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:09am Jun 25, 2012 2:09am
[quote=diggo;5787969]One more thing Geppy, if I may,

Should I be looking to short after a small breakout like this? I have trouble looking for the best entry price in these circumstances.

I just shorted @ 2505 with stops at 2524, which could be a little premature. I'd like to know how close to the previous support it should be before I enter.

Apologies if this is too "newbie-ish"[/QUOTE

I'll just cut into the conversation if I may as it may be useful, but I would never enter a trade after an extended move like this, so a short at2505 risks being swallowed very quickly. We are at support pivot level 2, an area where the price often reverses
, and there is possible strong divergence on H1.
  • #661,529
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:11am Jun 25, 2012 2:11am
Quoting diggo
One more thing Geppy, if I may,

Should I be looking to short after a small breakout like this? I have trouble looking for the best entry price in these circumstances.

I just shorted @ 2505 with stops at 2524, which could be a little premature. I'd like to know how close to the previous support it should be before I enter.

Apologies if this is too "newbie-ish"
I entered a trade with exactly the opposite ideas in mind at the same levels.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #661,530
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:12am Jun 25, 2012 2:12am
Quoting Geppy
100-200pip targets with 8-10SL? Seems a bit foolish to me... I would never give myself enough credit to be able to pick spots that perfectly.

I don't have a steadfast rule for how big my SL is. However, I'm pretty comfortable taking 30 pips of heat or so given that my targets are so large. With my current Euro shorts I took about 37 pips of heat, but I'm now ~200 pips in profit.

My win percentage is much higher (about 95%) and I never have a risk/reward of less than 1:2... usually 1:3 or more.

Think of it this way... if you were...
Wow.. a win percentage of 95% with that r/r? That is incredible. My jaw is on the floor right now!

I like your analogy here.. You've opened my eyes a little. Perhaps my stops are too tight.

Like I said, I've been learning from one of the best.. Gator. In some cases you don't really need anything larger than 10 pips. If it breaks, then you GTFO without giving away too many pips. Like in my trade just now that was stopped out (not the best example I know).

Anyway, I do appreciate your wisdom. I thought I had it all figured out, but I may need to re-consider my strategy.
  • #661,531
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:12am Jun 25, 2012 2:12am
Quoting diggo
One more thing Geppy, if I may,

Should I be looking to short after a small breakout like this? I have trouble looking for the best entry price in these circumstances.

I just shorted @ 2505 with stops at 2524, which could be a little premature. I'd like to know how close to the previous support it should be before I enter.

Apologies if this is too "newbie-ish"
Too many factors to give a definitive, absolute answer... not to mention personal preference and tolerance levels.

Again, it depends on your risk/reward. That's a 19 pip SL (call it 20 for easy math)... do you think it'll run 60-100 pips? If so, that's a good trade. If not, time to rethink it.

I wouldn't be surprised to see us retest 1.2520/25ish. We've been trying to break that level since Friday and taken several stabs at it.
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  • #661,532
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:12am Jun 25, 2012 2:12am
Wait nevermind.. Im out. haha
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #661,533
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:14am Jun 25, 2012 2:14am
Maybe a test of 2514/21 to add more shorts...
Don't just beat the markets, leave bruises.
  • #661,534
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:17am Jun 25, 2012 2:17am
Quoting Geppy
Too many factors to give a definitive, absolute answer... not to mention personal preference and tolerance levels.

Again, it depends on your risk/reward. That's a 19 pip SL (call it 20 for easy math)... do you think it'll run 60-100 pips? If so, that's a good trade. If not, time to rethink it.

I wouldn't be surprised to see us retest 1.2520/25ish. We've been trying to break that level since Friday and taken several stabs at it.
Yes, from what I can see we are heading for 2442 min. So that's about 60 pips, or a 1:3 r/r. Not bad, but could be much better with patience.

Stop moved up a couple pips
  • #661,535
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:19am Jun 25, 2012 2:19am
Quoting diggo
Wow.. a win percentage of 95% with that r/r? That is incredible. My jaw is on the floor right now!

I like your analogy here.. You've opened my eyes a little. Perhaps my stops are too tight.

Like I said, I've been learning from one of the best.. Gator. In some cases you don't really need anything larger than 10 pips. If it breaks, then you GTFO without giving away too many pips. Like in my trade just now that was stopped out (not the best example I know).

Anyway, I do appreciate your wisdom. I thought I had it all figured out, but I may...
There's nothing wrong with Gator's support and I'll definitely take trades in the same manner if I'm bored.

Remember, a win rate of 95% isn't that impressive... I don't take many trades. I've been riding the same trade since last week and I definitely am not taking trades every day.

Widening stop losses does not have to correlate to increasing your risk exposure. You simply have to decrease your trade size. It's not for everyone, it really depends on your style.

The only thing that matters is your risk/reward. If I was some sort of genius and could know my 4 hour drive arrival time within 8-10 minutes even 70% of the time, you can be damn sure I'd be doing it. I just can't. So, I widen my margin of error and increase my win percentage to compensate for it.

The number of pips your stop loss is or the number of pips your target includes are completely useless numbers to look at independently. All that matter is risk/reward, and that takes both a SL and target.

It's really not rocket science, people just lack the discipline.
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  • #661,536
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:23am Jun 25, 2012 2:23am
price is oversold careful guyss.....
  • #661,537
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:24am Jun 25, 2012 2:24am
Quoting diggo
Yes, from what I can see we are heading for 2442 min. So that's about 60 pips, or a 1:3 r/r. Not bad, but could be much better with patience.

Stop moved up a couple pips
1:3 is a fine r/r.

A lot of people struggle with the perception that they risk missing out on a trade. It kills a lot of traders.

For example, you could wait for 1.2520ish before selling, but what if it drops to 1.2440 first? Oops...

Another approach is to sell only half of your desired position on the break and sell the next half only if it pulls back to 1.2520ish. If it doesn't, sell the next half somewhere lower.

I absolutely LOVE to pyramid my trades. On Friday, I added shorts at 1.2575 and 1.2580 and took only 6 pips heat on the 1.2575 entry. I almost never enter my full desired position at one price point (see chart).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd1h.gif Size: 56 KB
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  • #661,538
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:25am Jun 25, 2012 2:25am
Quoting Izanami
price is oversold careful guyss.....
haha, suuuurrrrrrrrrrrrrre,
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  • #661,539
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:27am Jun 25, 2012 2:27am
Quoting Geppy
1:3 is a fine r/r.

A lot of people struggle with the perception that they risk missing out on a trade. It kills a lot of traders.

For example, you could wait for 1.2520ish before selling, but what if it drops to 1.2440 first? Oops...

Another approach is to sell only half of your desired position on the break and sell the next half only if it pulls back to 1.2520ish. If it doesn't, sell the next half somewhere lower.

I absolutely LOVE to pyramid my trades. On Friday, I added shorts at 1.2575 and 1.2580 and took only 6 pips...
This is a very good approach. I usually have 1 before breakout, one during breakout and another after consolidation/retracement.
  • #661,540
  • Jun 25, 2012 2:35am Jun 25, 2012 2:35am
Quoting Geppy
There's nothing wrong with Gator's support and I'll definitely take trades in the same manner if I'm bored.

Remember, a win rate of 95% isn't that impressive... I don't take many trades. I've been riding the same trade since last week and I definitely am not taking trades every day.

Widening stop losses does not have to correlate to increasing your risk exposure. You simply have to decrease your trade size. It's not for everyone, it really depends on your style.

The only thing that matters is your risk/reward. If I was some sort...
Grrr.. my internet cut out when I posted a long reply

Anyway, it took me a while to realise that it's all about r/r. My trading has improved significantly since the penny dropped.

95% is brilliant, I think you're being modest
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