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Trading forex profitable is impossible!

  • #121
  • Jun 24, 2012 7:07am Jun 24, 2012 7:07am
Trading forex profitably long term is impossible.

I mean no offense and with all due respect you guys are proving my point.
  • #122
  • Jun 24, 2012 7:19am Jun 24, 2012 7:19am
Quoting Ill-b-back
All you need is a strategy that gives you a good R/R and preferably a greater than 50percent win rate, and bingo!!!
It's not that hard.
Reminds me of a funny line - "the lottery is easy, all you need is a winning ticket and hey presto!"
  • #123
  • Jun 24, 2012 9:01am Jun 24, 2012 9:01am
You can't win if you don't play....


Evidence? Sorry this isn't CSI.
  • #124
  • Jun 24, 2012 9:47am Jun 24, 2012 9:47am
well, as a passing thought, i figured if someone here is interested in learning more about what to consider in order to have a chance of success trading, they might want to read this thread here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=369985

if not, that's cool. forget about it.

X
  • #125
  • Jun 24, 2012 1:11pm Jun 24, 2012 1:11pm
A person I know turn 5k into 6 figures account.
  • #126
  • Jun 24, 2012 6:30pm Jun 24, 2012 6:30pm
Quoting Mingary
Trading forex profitably long term is impossible.

I mean no offense and with all due respect you guys are proving my point.
Ok, you've sucked me back in.
Please explain?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #127
  • Jun 24, 2012 6:34pm Jun 24, 2012 6:34pm
Quoting Mingary
On the contrary. Isn't there ample proof than 95% of retail traders are losers? Is this not generally accepted?

I see claims that retail forex trading is profitable. Fine, I contend that in the long run, it is not. If there is indeed 5 % or even 1% that are profitable at any given time they will eventually lose out (various reasons) after some time.. (days, weeks, years...).

I am certain that no one will come forward to prove that this is not the case.
Perhaps try contacting via PM the 3 following Fulltime traders who are located here on FF alone.
I would be VERY INTERESTED in THEIR response to your "THEORY" of impossibility.
Faller
PoundTrader
A speculator
Have a nice day
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #128
  • Jun 24, 2012 6:42pm Jun 24, 2012 6:42pm
Quoting jeanlouie
Reminds me of a funny line - "the lottery is easy, all you need is a winning ticket and hey presto!"
And it is also common knowledge that those who do not know how to trade, view trading as GAMBLING! Yes, just like the lottery.

Those who do not know how to trade are not in a position to judge its potential.

I might actually stick around here for a while, I'm quite enjoying picking holes in baseless arguments.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #129
  • Jun 24, 2012 8:53pm Jun 24, 2012 8:53pm
Quoting topherhk88
The time-frames that are you trading on (1m, 5m, etc) will undoubtedly be exposed to a significant amount of noise - news releases or other liquidity spikes will be much more likely to stop you out if you hold tight-stopped, short-term positions. I am NOT saying that is it impossible to trade smaller time frames, but just for someone that is worried (and seemingly overwhelmed) by the numerous factors that effect the market, I think larger timeframes would be a better bet.
Excellent job Chris, very impressive article indeed. I realise you covered many differing angles on trading however your section on trading larger time frames resounded with me. Without sounding critical as I have been guilty of it in my early trading career also, the trading of smaller time frames is insane, way to much market noise and erratic PA movement to make any sense of. It makes forex trading into a job.... and who wants that? I am a more stable and profitable trader since I realised my own short comings and now only trade on time frames H4 and above. I find it gives me a greater clarity as I can see the big picture as opposed to the grass roots noise. Regards David
  • #130
  • Jun 24, 2012 8:58pm Jun 24, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting xenios
Excellent job Chris, very impressive article indeed. I realise you covered many differing angles on trading however your section on trading larger time frames resounded with me. Without sounding critical as I have been guilty of it in my early trading career also, the trading of smaller time frames is insane, way to much market noise and erratic PA movement to make any sense of. It makes forex trading into a job.... and who wants that? I am a more stable and profitable trader since I realised my own short comings and now only trade on time frames...
I personally love the smaller time frames xenios, and i do pretty well with them in fact... but I also agree with EVERYTHING you just said

in fact, i made a post just yesterday i believe about that and other things unprofitable traders do too much of.

funny, everyone says it who makes money, but nobody listens in the beignning, when they don't make money.

really ironic actually.

X
  • #131
  • Jun 24, 2012 11:14pm Jun 24, 2012 11:14pm
If being right more than 50% of the time is possible, and in my case and many others probable. Then logically that would inevitably lead to profitability. And sustained profitability at that.
  • #132
  • Jun 25, 2012 3:23am Jun 25, 2012 3:23am
Personally, I feel that a new trader needs a good mentor. Someone that is legitimately successful. This mentor allows the new trader into their trading room to observe every trade.

The subconscious mind will soak in successful and consistent behaviors, and suddenly the new trader will find themselves profitable.

This was my story... I had a great mentor.
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #133
  • Jun 25, 2012 5:11am Jun 25, 2012 5:11am
Quoting Buffet
If being right more than 50% of the time is possible, and in my case and many others probable. Then logically that would inevitably lead to profitability. And sustained profitability at that.
Being right 50% of the time isn't good enough, your wins have to out weigh losses and spreads.

If you win 15 pips half the time and lose 20p half the time, are you profitable?

Here's food for thought:

System Expectancy = (no. wins / no. losses) x (avg win size / avg loss size)

A long term losing system will be < 1
A long term winning system will be > 1
A long term breakeven system will be = 1

ie based on prior history, for every 1 unit traded what on average can you expect to return?
  • #134
  • Jun 25, 2012 6:21am Jun 25, 2012 6:21am
Quoting Buffet
If being right more than 50% of the time is possible, and in my case and many others probable. Then logically that would inevitably lead to profitability. And sustained profitability at that.

The higher the accuracy the better your chances. You can be successful with a 40% win rate but it's much, much harder with a low win rate... because you are looking for much bigger moves to account for the 60% that you lose.

One way to look at it:

A surgeon must be right upwards of 90%+ of the time to be considered good.

A baseball player is considered good with a batting average of .300 or more. (30%)... a baseball player will never maintain a batting average over .400 for any long stretch in time. (40%)

In fx trading 50% and above is probable... just very hard to achieve. But it can be done. I've seen people hit higher accuracy rates than me.... it gets harder the longer you go. But my rates rarely dip below 70% accurate.

I am not selling nothing so you either believe this picture below as factual or not... I do not care one little bit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Undisclosed_june_live.png Size: 40 KB
  • #135
  • Jun 25, 2012 7:44am Jun 25, 2012 7:44am
Quoting pip_seeker

my rates rarely dip below 70% accurate.

I am not selling nothing so you either believe this picture below as factual or not...
Oh well if we're going to post pretty pictures, here's one!

Is 1100% in a couple of weeks sustainable? Highly unlikely, but everyone has at least fifteen minutes of fame, even in forex!

(the small print is especially for you pip_squeaker, I know how much you like small fonts!)



http://i49.tinypic.com/2lnz70p.jpg



http://i45.tinypic.com/zoccy8.jpg
  • #136
  • Jun 25, 2012 8:51am Jun 25, 2012 8:51am
Quoting mpc
Personally, I feel that a new trader needs a good mentor. Someone that is legitimately successful. This mentor allows the new trader into their trading room to observe every trade.

The subconscious mind will soak in successful and consistent behaviors, and suddenly the new trader will find themselves profitable.

This was my story... I had a great mentor.
So that's the difference, thanks.
  • #137
  • Jun 25, 2012 10:01am Jun 25, 2012 10:01am
Quoting Ill-b-back
And it is also common knowledge that those who do not know how to trade, view trading as GAMBLING! Yes, just like the lottery.

Those who do not know how to trade are not in a position to judge its potential.

I might actually stick around here for a while, I'm quite enjoying picking holes in baseless arguments.
Come on, keep 'em coming
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #138
  • Jun 25, 2012 6:46pm Jun 25, 2012 6:46pm
Quoting mpc
Personally, I feel that a new trader needs a good mentor. Someone that is legitimately successful. This mentor allows the new trader into their trading room to observe every trade.

The subconscious mind will soak in successful and consistent behaviors, and suddenly the new trader will find themselves profitable.

This was my story... I had a great mentor.
Exactly, agree 100 percent.
A positive mind sees the positive potential, a negative mind does not.
Without this positive mental foundation, success eludes us.
We all live in our own worlds and this thread is a classic example.
Claiming it is "impossible" to succeed and stating it as "fact" requires objective proof. Without this proof, it is not a "fact" but just an opinion.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #139
  • Jun 26, 2012 12:06am Jun 26, 2012 12:06am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Exactly, agree 100 percent.
A positive mind sees the positive potential, a negative mind does not.
Without this positive mental foundation, success eludes us.
We all live in our own worlds and this thread is a classic example.
Claiming it is "impossible" to succeed and stating it as "fact" requires objective proof. Without this proof, it is not a "fact" but just an opinion.

I see ... I kindly submit to you that we reverse that statement:

Claiming it is "possible" to succeed and stating is as "fact" requires objective proof. Without this proof, it is not a "fact" but just an opinion.

I am afraid you are still not proving your point.

Let's say I place a trade and it makes money. It is then a fact that that I have a "long term success" of 1 trade that lasted 2 hours.
Let's make it a losing trade. Then it is a fact of a "long term failure" of 1 trade that lasted 2 hours.

Now can you show me proof of success of 1 day, 2 weeks .... 20 years, 40 years?
The longer the period the rate nears zero given a "trading population". Proof by logic alone.
Feel reassured that it is the same phenomenon for other "professions". activity.
for example for dentists, engineers, doctors ....
In the trading "profession", it is much, much worse.
How is that difficult to understand?

Opinions and beliefs.
I may have the opinion that the moon is made out of cheese, but it is wrong.
I may believe in "Intelligent Design", but is is wrong.
  • #140
  • Jun 26, 2012 12:46am Jun 26, 2012 12:46am
Quoting Mingary
I see ... I kindly submit to you that we reverse that statement:

Claiming it is "possible" to succeed and stating is as "fact" requires objective proof. Without this proof, it is not a "fact" but just an opinion.

I am afraid you are still not proving your point.

Let's say I place a trade and it makes money. It is then a fact that that I have a "long term success" of 1 trade that lasted 2 hours.
Let's make it a losing trade. Then it is a fact of a "long term failure" of 1 trade that lasted 2 hours.

Now can you show me...
Oh man, you crack me up you really do, you haven't figured it out yet have you!!
Please direct me to the post where I stated that the possibility of long term success in forex is a "fact". That is not my argument and that is not my point. My point which I thought I had made abundantly clear is that the title of this thread and the claim being made is that long term success in forex is "impossible", something you have stated as being a "fact".
All I have ever asked is to prove it!! If you are going to say something is "impossible" rather than hard, or difficult, and then go on to say that your assertion is "factual", the onus is on you to prove it, since mere opinions do not require proof.
If you do not understand what I am trying to explain to you, please let me know and I will leave you and this thread in peace, and to its destiny.

The moon, cheese??
I thought the earth was flat??
Oh, that's right, that "fact" was proven wrong ages ago
Come with me if you want to live....
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