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Trading forex profitable is impossible!

  • #101
  • Jun 23, 2012 3:12am Jun 23, 2012 3:12am
Quoting BBPI_fxtrader

I do believe that trading can be thought, and an experienced/veteran trader can turn a novice into a professional, provided the novice has a passion for trading and puts in the hard time needed to become successful
I think personality has a lot to do with it too, some people just aren't cut out to be traders. That's not necessarily a bad thing, especially when I think of some of the successful traders I've met lol


Quoting BBPI_fxtrader

Of course, having Ged's attitude will get one nowehere in trading...
True
  • #102
  • Jun 23, 2012 3:19am Jun 23, 2012 3:19am
Quoting pipmutt
Disservice more like!

So in your opinion, and from your experience, no one can consistently make money from trading, is that what you're saying?
Not my opinion or experience. It is a fact for retail trading.
  • #103
  • Jun 23, 2012 3:24am Jun 23, 2012 3:24am
Quoting Mingary

Not my opinion or experience.
Right, so you're relying on someone else's word and their experience and opinion?


Quoting Mingary

It is a fact for retail trading.
What, that no retail forex traders make money consistently? Where exactly did you get that notion, or is that your assumption based on no opinion or experience?
  • #104
  • Jun 23, 2012 3:27am Jun 23, 2012 3:27am
Quoting pipmutt



What, that no retail forex traders make money consistently? Where did you get that notion?
+1, would also like to know that
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #105
  • Jun 23, 2012 3:33am Jun 23, 2012 3:33am
Quoting BBPI_fxtrader

+1, would also like to know that
This could be interesting if the other side can sustain their side of the debate without resorting to trying to shoot the messenger!

Unfortunately these types of discussions usually end one way though.....we'll see.
  • #106
  • Jun 23, 2012 4:03am Jun 23, 2012 4:03am
Quoting pipmutt
Right, so you're relying on someone else's word and their experience and opinion?

I can have the opinion that the moon is made of cheese but it's wrong.
I can experience "intelligent design" but it's wrong.


What, that no retail forex traders make money consistently? Where exactly did you get that notion, or is that your assumption based on no opinion or experience?

ok, several topics come to mind,
The law of averages (someone will do well, someone will do poorly).
Bell curve distribution (extreme success, extreme failure);
add this to the economic purpose of speculation in an open market economy -- speculation being a necessary evil; then it comes down to some rather basic stuff. For example like PT Barnum said "there is a sucker born every minute", i.e. retail trading = easy money) and knowing that the propensity for humans to delude themselves is enormous creates a retail trading paradigm in which the members all dance to the same beat.
Many are called, (very) few are chosen. There is nothing special about the chosen few. They were just subject to the law of averages (someone must win big)
Consistent money is not made in retail trading.
  • #107
  • Jun 23, 2012 4:13am Jun 23, 2012 4:13am
Quoting Mingary
Not my opinion or experience. It is a fact for retail trading.
Well, this guy seems to be doing ok...and his setup is automated no less:

http://www.forexfactory.com/enricofx...ph+return/days

I'm not anywhere near this guy above, nor is my track record here as long...but, i've had about 350 trades in the last 5 weeks, my win rate is about 64% + my best trade return was 1.6%, my worst was 1.5%...so i'm not doing some crazy "target 5 pips with a 50 pip stop" strategy.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=364409

anyway, if nothing else, it proves that 2 guys can make a few hundered trades in the retail forex markets, and end up with more money than they started with.

but, your ALMOST correct. easily 90%+ won't make a dime, and i'd say about 95%+ won't make enough to do it full time.

X
  • #108
  • Jun 23, 2012 4:16am Jun 23, 2012 4:16am
Quoting Mingary
Not my opinion or experience. It is a fact for retail trading.
And you know this how???
I can't believe the rubbish in hear that no retail traders can make consistent money in forex.
What a load of complete narrow minded crap.
Wake up, learn to trade and change your tune.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #109
  • Jun 23, 2012 4:17am Jun 23, 2012 4:17am
Quoting Mingary
ok, several topics come to mind,
The law of averages (someone will do well, someone will do poorly).
Bell curve distribution (extreme success, extreme failure);
add this to the economic purpose of speculation in an open market economy -- speculation being a necessary evil; then it comes down to some rather basic stuff. For example like PT Barnum said "there is a sucker born every minute", i.e. retail trading = easy money) and knowing that the propensity for humans to delude themselves is enormous creates a retail trading paradigm in which the...
Well Mingary, I quite frankly disagree. But I will say this. if I felt something was impossible, i don't spend time on forums that talk about it.

for example, I believe using astrology to tell the future is absoultely impossible, and it doesn't work.

and i've never spent a single second of my life on an astrology website, nor have I made a single post about it....

So, why are you bothering to do so given your opinion is what it is?
  • #110
  • Jun 23, 2012 4:28am Jun 23, 2012 4:28am
haaaa.. that low barrier to entry is a real killer.. (:
It is fascinating that the players of this game can't see the big picture.
And the fact that my simple remarks brings immediate antagonism means that I am really onto something good.
I don't deny that some people are making some money now (as well as losing some) but no one makes money long term (in retail trading).
  • #111
  • Jun 23, 2012 4:33am Jun 23, 2012 4:33am
Quoting Mingary
haaaa.. that low barrier to entry is a real killer.. (:
It is fascinating that the players of this game can't see the big picture.
And the fact that my simple remarks brings immediate antagonism means that I am really onto something good.
I don't deny that some people are making some money now (as well as losing some) but no one makes money long term (in retail trading).
Well, I suppose I could ask you just one simple question...

can you prove this statement? And remember... the absence of proof is not in itself proof, it's in fact not any proof at all.

if you don't have proof, what you are really saying is "I BELIEVE no one makes money long term in retail trading"

so, is this a belief? or is this something you can prove?

And...while we're at it...can you define long term?

if a person makes 10,000 trades in 1 year, in 20 different currency markets, taking equal positions long and short, using a retail broker, and had a 70% win rate, and for every $1 of risk he made $1.50 of profit... would you say that is "long term" enough?

what about a person who has traded retail for 5 years, but only one market, to the short side, and in fact only adds or subtracts from this position 3 - 4 times a year...effectively they have 1 trade idea, and maybe 20 "trades" at most... would this be "long term" enough?

it would be helpful to know exactly what is being debated here.

X
  • #112
  • Edited 4:57am Jun 23, 2012 4:47am | Edited 4:57am
Quoting Mingary
haaaa.. that low barrier to entry is a real killer.. (:
It is fascinating that the players of this game can't see the big picture.
And the fact that my simple remarks brings immediate antagonism means that I am really onto something good.
I don't deny that some people are making some money now (as well as losing some) but no one makes money long term (in retail trading).
You are onto nothing
When I read rediculous statements such as the last line of your above post, I just can't help myself, I must react.
No retail traders make money long term in forex
Again, I simply ask "you know this how?"
It makes me
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #113
  • Jun 23, 2012 4:50am Jun 23, 2012 4:50am
Quoting Mingary
ok, several topics come to mind,
The law of averages (someone will do well, someone will do poorly).
Bell curve distribution (extreme success, extreme failure);
add this to the economic purpose of speculation in an open market economy -- speculation being a necessary evil; then it comes down to some rather basic stuff. For example like PT Barnum said "there is a sucker born every minute", i.e. retail trading = easy money) and knowing that the propensity for humans to delude themselves is enormous creates a retail trading paradigm in which...
Well that's all well and good in theory, but the reality is quite different. I can't dispute the fact that the vast majority of retail forex traders will lose money overall in the long term but that is more due to the shortcomings of the 'trader' rather than lack of opportunity in the market. Guessing at a percentage I would hazard a guess that >80% of market participants at this level are either totally unsuitable, underfunded, unprepared, unemployed, unemployable, and/or hapless and hopeless!

Of the remaining 20% maybe ~15% make a mediocre return over and above more traditional investments, and maybe ~5% make a good to decent living solely from trading. Also don't forget the longevity of the average retail forex traders account, some of these people don't stay with it very long when they find out it's not fast easy money.

Stark figures perhaps, but a far cry from 'no one makes money long term in forex'


Quoting Mingary

Consistent money is not made in retail trading.
You seem to be putting the emphasis on 'retail'. If anything retail is less complicated and has many benefits over institutional trading, the average retail trader has every opportunity and possibility to make money, unfortunately most simply can't.
  • #114
  • Edited Jun 24, 2012 12:11am Jun 23, 2012 3:51pm | Edited Jun 24, 2012 12:11am
"trading forex profitable is impossible",
That is the title of the thread.
That is the claim being made.
So please,

PROVE IT!!

The negatively minded people of this thread have fallen into a trap of their own making
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #115
  • Jun 24, 2012 3:41am Jun 24, 2012 3:41am
Quoting Ill-b-back
"trading forex profitable is impossible",
That is the title of the thread.
That is the claim being made.
So please,

PROVE IT!!

The negatively minded people of this thread have fallen into a trap of their own making
On the contrary. Isn't there ample proof than 95% of retail traders are losers? Is this not generally accepted?

I see claims that retail forex trading is profitable. Fine, I contend that in the long run, it is not. If there is indeed 5 % or even 1% that are profitable at any given time they will eventually lose out (various reasons) after some time.. (days, weeks, years...).

I am certain that no one will come forward to prove that this is not the case.
  • #116
  • Jun 24, 2012 4:13am Jun 24, 2012 4:13am
Quoting Mingary
On the contrary. Isn't there ample proof than 95% of retail traders are losers? Is this not generally accepted?

I see claims that retail forex trading is profitable. Fine, I contend that in the long run, it is not. If there is indeed 5 % or even 1% that are profitable at any given time they will eventually lose out (various reasons) after some time.. (days, weeks, years...).

I am certain that no one will come forward to prove that this is not the case.
you've still failed to prove your point. and actually, you've made a mistake...the "95%" figure is regarding retail "day traders", as in active traders who place trades that primarily resolve in less than a 24 hour period, and do so with a degree of frequency at which the intend to produce a regular income from it.

swing traders, or position traders on the other hand, are not, nor have ever been, factored into that statistic. There actually was a class action lawsuit (at least one... but it's the one I know of) from day traders against a broker several years ago during the genesis of the "online broker movement" in the dot com gogo days for false advertising. The claim was that the broker exaggerated the claims that they could provide tools for "day traders to become successful" The litigants won something in the suit and appropriately so. This was one of the earliest incidents of actual "evidence" of the statistic coming to light, and if i recall, it was something around 89% of clients who attempted to "day trade" as their primary trading activity had lost money in the course of a 9 month period.

one could easily choose to be a retail trader, but NOT day trade... and we simply have no data whatsoever regarding the success rate or failure rate of this approach. its safe to say that most lose... but, remember, somebody wins, and the aggregate profits of various brokerages in the world do not by any means account for more than a mere fraction of the total money amount that changes hands, so some entities do indeed obtain the balance of this in the form of profit.

Can you tell me why it would be impossible for a retail trader (forget day trader, lets talk longer term trader) to be a net profitable trader over time, not due to a random distribution of outcomes, but due to the fact that the markets move for good reasons that can be determined, and measured, and sometimes are in a position to provide value more often than not from time to time?

referrring to the random walk and related theories to prove your point is I believe limiting and incorrect... something akin to using soft towel to paint a wall with. sure... it will work, sort of, but it's not the actual intended use of the towel, and there is in fact a more appropriate "better, more acccurate" way to do this.

besides, the random walk has all but been disproven, and very few in the academic community subscribe to it without account for many exceptons and inconsistencies:

http://press.princeton.edu/titles/6558.html

the link above if your REALLY interested in obtaining a more objective, erudite insight into the strength of the premise you are in part using to validate your assertations.

Anyway, in your statement above you choosing to take a specific statistic, and then by your own opinion extrapolate from it a conclusion that the very evidence from which you draw from is neither inclusive in being a component of your statement (you said retail trader, not retail day trader), nor is it supporting you at all! The stat is, in fact, 95%, not 100%

or even 99.5%, or 99.8%.

if that was the statistic, you would be much more closer to being correct!

I find it somewhat humorous in fact that you take a statistic of 95% to base your argument on...and then essentially say "so, actually, this number is totally wrong, and it's 100%"

that's about as valid as me saying "yea... 95% lose...but actually, that number is wrong, and it's, only like, 78% that lose"

you see what i'm saying here? you cant use evidence to support your argument, and then in fact, completely negate that evidence to attempt to "build on" your arguement in the first place! that's.... totally and completely illogical, and i'm in fact sure there is a latin name for the specific fallicy you are engaging in.

if you were to use words that actually articulated your thoughts correctly, it would be something like this:

"I believe 100% of retail traders lose. I know that there is not evidence anywhere that has supports this. the evidence supports a smaller number, and implies that in fact a very few in fact do win. but, i'm going to ignore the evidence...because as I said.... I BELIEVE... that 100% of retail traders lose"

Well, ok. we all have our faiths. Feel free to comment back, but I think it's safe for me to say that you, and many others on this forum will have to agree to disagree.

X
  • #117
  • Jun 24, 2012 4:43am Jun 24, 2012 4:43am
Quoting Mingary
On the contrary. Isn't there ample proof than 95% of retail traders are losers? Is this not generally accepted?

I see claims that retail forex trading is profitable. Fine, I contend that in the long run, it is not. If there is indeed 5 % or even 1% that are profitable at any given time they will eventually lose out (various reasons) after some time.. (days, weeks, years...).

I am certain that no one will come forward to prove that this is not the case.
How do you know they will eventually lose out?????
You seem to be very presumptuous.
You also seem to be quite negative.
You may say that you are just being realistic.
How can you be so certain of what you say??? The world is filled with people who are so certain about their ideas without proof.
This of course limits what they can achieve.
"Whether you think you can or think yoy can't either way you are right"
All you need is a strategy that gives you a good R/R and preferably a greater than 50percent win rate, and bingo!!!
It's not that hard.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #118
  • Jun 24, 2012 5:24am Jun 24, 2012 5:24am
Quoting Mingary
On the contrary. Isn't there ample proof than 95% of retail traders are losers? Is this not generally accepted?

I see claims that retail forex trading is profitable. Fine, I contend that in the long run, it is not. If there is indeed 5 % or even 1% that are profitable at any given time they will eventually lose out (various reasons) after some time.. (days, weeks, years...).

I am certain that no one will come forward to prove that this is not the case.
What you are saying is that there is no such thing as a professional retail forex trader who trades for a living. It is a figment of our imagination.
I'm done here, this thread should go straight to the dustbin where it belongs.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #119
  • Jun 24, 2012 5:53am Jun 24, 2012 5:53am
Quoting Ill-b-back
What you are saying is that there is no such thing as a professional retail forex trader who trades for a living. It is a figment of our imagination.
I'm done here, this thread should go straight to the dustbin where it belongs.
Ok. So where is the evidence?
You can find doctors and carpenters in the phone book... (:
Over time the rate of atrition is enormous it must be close to 100%.
The base is very large, by logic then yes, there is someone, somewhere who is a professional retail forex trader who trades for a living.
It is safer to say that the chances are -0- that a particular individual will retire from trading after a long career as a professional trader.
Take the lottery, I can predict that someone will win, but if you ask me if uncle bob will win, I can respond in all certainty that he will NOT win. (the odds are better with trading)
  • #120
  • Jun 24, 2012 6:05am Jun 24, 2012 6:05am
Quoting Ill-b-back
What you are saying is that there is no such thing as a professional retail forex trader who trades for a living. It is a figment of our imagination.
I'm done here, this thread should go straight to the dustbin where it belongs.
ya, agreed. nuff said.
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