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EURUSD

  • #661,381
  • Edited 3:43am Jun 24, 2012 3:31am | Edited 3:43am

Technical Analysis
Daily Chart
http://i.imgur.com/BZ80d.png


Fundamental
http://i.imgur.com/Uf44y.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/C072a.jpg
Everyday there is some medium risk news for US


In the short term euro is still bullish
thinking of going long aiming for 1.285
  • #661,382
  • Jun 24, 2012 3:46am Jun 24, 2012 3:46am
Why do you draw tl if you do not intend to act according to them(trendlines)?

Bullish channel has been broken downside(as we can see from your chart), so why would one go long from here? Personally, I am looking for retest of 1.244, no clear break there could suggest upward move to 1.27
  • #661,383
  • Jun 24, 2012 4:15am Jun 24, 2012 4:15am
Quoting Nif90
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart



Fundamental

Everyday there is some medium risk news for US


In the short term euro is still bullish
thinking of going long aiming for 1.285

That's what I wrote above. Everybody thinks himself the best captain. Draw two lines - and this is the right map. I pointed to dozens of arguments against this claim. For example, on Friday price made ​​a new low and launch the leg down. The new leg is 227 pips and duration of 4 days.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 15 KB

The probability of turning up the price is below 50%. And the probability of reversal in time is 75%.
Attached Image

I do not know what will happen, but I try to appreciate the situation. I avoid to give strong opinions.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #661,384
  • Jun 24, 2012 4:31am Jun 24, 2012 4:31am
Quoting gatorinla
its important not to raise %.. Your % remains as your account grows/shrinks. if i had x amount today.. i would change it in a month. for instance 10 bucks on each 1000 at 1 %.. keep 10 bucks as a s/l for an entire month. the following month adjust up or down. do this each month.. have a set amount to lose for the month. have a set amount to win. if you lose the amount. step back for a while and wait for the next period. if you make your goal... trade less until the next cycle. its 90% mental.. i like to close a portion to pay for my s/l. this way...
Thankyou, again, for the great advice Gator! I'll employ this strategy this week. I've always had poor money management in my first year of trading, really getting it under control these days after reading and learning from you.

For this week, I see silver at the edge of the cliff. I'm confident we'll have a good opportunity to long @ 2612. I've been waiting for weeks for it to get here and now it's not too far away. 2612 is the mid of the Sep '11 & Dec '11 lows.

Gold has been behaving beautifully. 1527.7 was the mid of the aforementioned lows. In May it was hit to the pip before a half decent retrace.

I have multiple orders for Silver @ 2613, 2618.5 with tight stops just below 2606 and 2600. Once hit, a bounce to the mid of the previous leg looks good (565 pips away). I'll have my TP around 3175.

I'm risking 10-20 pips to gain 565 minimum. Let's say avg. 15 pips.. That's 37/1 odds.. Risk only 1% to gain 37%

A break of 2600 looks scary. Nothing but fresh air below. But I'm quietly confident 2600 will hold for now.
  • #661,385
  • Edited 5:03am Jun 24, 2012 4:53am | Edited 5:03am
The new bottom draws a new map. We need to read it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 49 KB

For me the situation is in favor of bears. Nevertheless, the bulls have two support. Tures that can send the price up to 1.2640 to 50. If there is a break of the 1.2524 can wait for the price of 1.2412-13.
I feel that it is still too risky for my laptop. That's what I'll read more and less to write.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #661,386
  • Jun 24, 2012 5:21am Jun 24, 2012 5:21am
Attached Image
  • #661,387
  • Jun 24, 2012 5:44am Jun 24, 2012 5:44am
Quoting CorBlimeyGuv
Attachment
Lol hahahaha
  • #661,388
  • Jun 24, 2012 6:00am Jun 24, 2012 6:00am
lol
Perfect Trading Core completed on 13/10/2012 : 2002-2012 |10yrs
  • #661,389
  • Jun 24, 2012 6:35am Jun 24, 2012 6:35am
Quoting godim
The new bottom draws a new map. We need to read it.
Attachment
For me the situation is in favor of bears. Nevertheless, the bulls have two support. Tures that can send the price up to 1.2640 to 50. If there is a break of the 1.2524 can wait for the price of 1.2412-13.
I feel that it is still too risky for my laptop. That's what I'll read more and less to write.
Hi godim,

We have a similar outlook. Interesting. Waiting to see how it plays out.
  • #661,390
  • Edited 7:58am Jun 24, 2012 6:39am | Edited 7:58am
Quoting CorBlimeyGuv
Attachment
Whoa that is one super granny for you.

Quoting godim
The new bottom draws a new map. We need to read it.
Attachment
For me the situation is in favor of bears. Nevertheless, the bulls have two support. Tures that can send the price up to 1.2640 to 50. If there is a break of the 1.2524 can wait for the price of 1.2412-13.
I feel that it is still too risky for my laptop. That's what I'll read more and less to write.
I don't think so. Look at my chart, while I think the price will move down through asian session on monday I am for the bull. At the red circle on my chart you got what they say professional seller entering market. Friday overall is redistribution fase to my eyes. What we need here is a shakeout, maybe a gap down then reverse on monday, maybe lol.

The second circle on price is the level which I think will be traded when market open, and I think asian session will be traded around this level. It is exactly at 262% of fib from the distribution(ranging market) above. If this materialize in monday, I'll be looking for just above 1.24 for a long entry(tentative will be following PA at any price).

Add: If price is still traded around friday close, I will surely looking for a short as there is clear indicator of seller lurking around.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #661,391
  • Jun 24, 2012 9:15am Jun 24, 2012 9:15am
Quoting kenfen69
Hi Markus...

I am not he to which you speak (), but the indicator with colored bands is attached here...plus the library file (MT4/indicators/library).

Article on the indy is here: http://articles.mql4.com/1028

I'm having a look now to see if the simple yellow line version is the same indicator with some settings turned off...and a lengthened period is being used.

Hope you're well. All the best.
Hello Ken,
Nice to see you, you have a twitter account?
Thanks
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #661,392
  • Jun 24, 2012 9:25am Jun 24, 2012 9:25am
Quoting CorBlimeyGuv
Attachment

That is realy funny ha ha ha.
  • #661,393
  • Jun 24, 2012 9:28am Jun 24, 2012 9:28am
Quoting godim
I see that you are not taking me seriously. So I will speak metaphorically. What is it about? Most of you are old sea wolfs (so at least it is in Bulgarian). And for years crossed the ocean (Forex) and accumulate treasure in his ship. You feel happy and more confident on captain place. But do you know to where you move your ship? Have you a map with shallow, hollows, currents, etc? In most cases you (us) to let the winds and currents can lead us. And often where falls our ship is not good. I'm talking about the map. The correct map is important...
well... in my experience, there is no such thing as "accurate map" in this market.

occasionally and thankfully, the market is generous enough to gives us some clues, or hints where the market might take us in few turns. most times.... it just confuse the crap out of me in general.
  • #661,394
  • Jun 24, 2012 9:42am Jun 24, 2012 9:42am
Quoting pkimnyc
well... in my experience, there is no such thing as "accurate map" in this market.

occasionally and thankfully, the market is generous enough to gives us some clues, or hints where the market might take us in few turns. most times.... it just confuse the crap out of me in general.
Hi Pkimnyc,
Long time. hope you are good and well, just confused when i saw your signature also reading the last few pages i am impressed to see Google translation works well!!?
cya
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #661,395
  • Jun 24, 2012 10:45am Jun 24, 2012 10:45am
http://wahai.com/upwegoe.png
Patience Pays
  • #661,396
  • Jun 24, 2012 10:56am Jun 24, 2012 10:56am
Quoting fdjauzak
http://wahai.com/upwegoe.png
i hope so for your sake. just remember what happened last week how many people shorted on friday close and market rallied about 100 pips to north before falling back down.
  • #661,397
  • Jun 24, 2012 10:58am Jun 24, 2012 10:58am
Quoting Avir
Hi Pkimnyc,
Long time. hope you are good and well, just confused when i saw your signature also reading the last few pages i am impressed to see Google translation works well!!?
cya
i am good avir. thanks for asking. hope you are doing good as well?
  • #661,398
  • Jun 24, 2012 11:02am Jun 24, 2012 11:02am
Quoting fdjauzak
http://wahai.com/upwegoe.png
It's possible. Nothing changed for me since Thursday evening...

Quoting attila
I actually don't think it's that bad. If it stays above 46 on h1, it could go up to 2597. h4 above 51 would put it up at 2642.. but these lower bounds have to hold...
  • #661,399
  • Jun 24, 2012 11:12am Jun 24, 2012 11:12am
There wont be a 100 pip gap this time.. sofar only 6 pips difference
  • #661,400
  • Jun 24, 2012 11:20am Jun 24, 2012 11:20am
Quoting attila
It's possible. Nothing changed for me since Thursday evening...
Anything is possible in the market. But for me it is important to clarify concepts. What does "we go north"? To me that means the price to go above 1.2746. Then to the south is enough to go under 1.2519. Yes. Such works. What do you think?
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
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