EurAnalysis

yes i know that! wasnt meant bad way

Got it Boss BTW I am out of that conversation...Sorry if I did something wrong...

my focus on this thread is to understand how fundamental interact with price action,how snetiment change with time.what is mechanism by which market tilt a person to lean on the wrong side,how does market able to keep 80% of traders on the wrong side.these are the question which trouble me most.

soye nahi abi tak,kiya time hua hai pakistan mey

Sir g 04:00 bus thori dair tak sonay laga hoon...News and charts check ker raha tha

Merde, j'comprend rien!

lol...Is it French..?
My reply to Doc
Sir, il est 04h00 ici, je suis sur le point de dormir et je voulais simplement vérifier nouvelles et des graphiques

LOL! Yes, Harpe. In French. Merci pour la tratuction!

Hi - I'm a newbie to FX and have really enjoyed following the posts on this thread. I have been following the soverign debt affect and the GFC since late 2008, and recently have wondered what would happen to the money markets if Greece defaulted.

It appears to me, that even if the bail-out contracts entered into by the EU and other nations to prop-up Greece were literally torn up by Greece, then would other state owned / soverign investors lend money to Greece (a new market with a clean slate due to bankruptcy)?

If the Greeks did default isnt that simply the risk which investors take when they lend money (eg when the banks lend to borrowers)? Isn't the risk of default the actual risk the banks and financial institutions took on when they first entered into a contract with Greece - that is, when Greece entered the Euro Union? Furthermore, its not as though the lenders have not received any interest on their loans already, and as a commercial transaction gone bad, wouldn't the lenders be entitled to a tax deduction for bad debts.

As I said, I'm a newbie around here and I might be right out of my depth, but some things appear simple enough to me to at least have a viewpoint. I welcome any responses to enlighten me.

Many thanks

Watching EURAUD for shorts. Heres what my chart looks like.

Keep watching. and if you need a big glass use this :

http://wisequacks.org/wp2/wp-content...ig-glasses.jpg

Great bull counter momentum there. Done watching this pair.

In a normal capitalist society that is correct. In the new normal, failure is not an option. Each day seems to bring us all closer to some sort of quasi-fascism/crony capitalism zombie economy model where nothing is allowed to fail at the expense of future generations.

It makes me tired thinking how long this s**t has dragged on.

Being a true contrarian investor isn’t just about investing in unloved sectors of the market or specific stocks. It’s also about conducting research and discovering indicators that the crowd doesn’t follow — indicators that can help give clues as to the next probable direction of risk assets. I’m always on the lookout for such indicators, and have compiled many of them over my years of trading and investing.

For example, the crowd often looks at the U.S. dollar as an indicator of risk sentiment for the markets and, to be sure, it is. Generally when the dollar goes up, it means investors are seeking the safety of assets like Treasuries. And when it falls, investors are moving to riskier assets, such as stocks and commodities.

But if you’re looking to become a savvy contrarian investor, there is another “dollar” that can often be a leading indicator of risk appetite across the globe.

I’m talking about ...

The Aussie

Over the past several years, the Australian dollar has become a pretty reliable indicator for global risk appetite. The reason: Australia’s economy is heavily reliant on exporting its industrial commodities, including iron ore, coal, nickel, and uranium.

As a result, the Aussie economy grows when the global economy (and in particular China) is growing. And it shrinks when global economic activity is declining. But because Australia exports commodities that are so closely linked to economic expansion, their economy usually starts to improve before the rest of the world, as companies and governments begin expansion projects. The opposite happens during times of global contraction.

Like many other nations, Australia’s dollar rallies and falls with the economy: When the economy gets stronger, the Australian dollar rises as markets anticipate rising interest rates in the country to combat inflation — and when the economy stalls the markets anticipate interest rate cuts to stimulate growth.

We can see the predictive power of the Aussie dollar in the chart below. It peaked in early March, way ahead of the stock market and before the commodity markets broke down. Even more recently, it put in a bottom before the stock and commodity markets rallied.

It’s important to note, then, that the Australian dollar is now running into resistance at the downtrend line that dates back to the March top. Contrarian investors know to watch this closely.

If it breaks through that downtrend, it could be a leading indicator that risk assets like stocks and commodities may be getting ready to turn higher. Likewise, if the Australian dollar fails here, it’ll be a sign that the weakness we’ve seen in stocks and commodities is probably going to continue for a while longer.

Now, I’m not saying that the Aussie dollar is the absolute predictor of stock market direction. But it is a less followed indicator for risk assets generally, and it is monitored by savvy, contrarian investors.

Oh, the almighty "I have the bigger balls than you" competition. Who gives a fuk how much someone earns, we all trade only for ourselves.

Good morning all.

Just as I expected there was no QE3. Instead Benny appeased the markets with an extension of operation twist till year end. That concludes all the Fed's policies changes until after the US elections.

Also worth mentioning is that the rate statement included a clause that said the committee stands prepared to take further action should the situation deteriorate in the context of price stability. Price stability is inflation (CPI/PPI). This means that they will take further action if we face a risk of deflation. Therefore, it seems the employment mandate has been (at least temporarily) sidelined and passed on to fiscal policy makers to resolve. Since the chances of deflation are extremely low, the USD Dollar should start gaining support once again. This translates to a mid-term bearish outlook for the E/U pair.

Spain is still FUBAR. They are supposed to be releasing the preliminary bank audit report today or tomorrow and I don't expect it to look very good. As far as a bailout is concerned, I think we can forget about the €100 Billion the EU offered them as it is clearly not going to be enough. That creates further bearish sentiment for the E/U pair.

Greece now has a new government. Hooray, they've managed to form a coalition and they actually have a democratically elected prime minister instead of a technocrat. Good for them. I see this as a major step in the right direction, but the most difficult parts are still ahead. I see this as very stabilizing and probably Euro positive for now. We may get some short covering out of this but I'm not too hopeful it will last long at all. The next hurdle for them now is to get a favorable Troika report so they can get their next funding tranche.

Anyway, we're still in a news driven market for now but I feel volatility has decreased somewhat so perhaps we shall start seeing more logical moves. At least it is something to hope for.

In conclusion I am still bearish the E/U pair but more so because I am USD bullish rather than Euro bearish. Time will tell how this all plays out. EU summit is the next hurdle from a macro perspective.

Technically, not much has changed since yesterday. I still believe the correction is over or at least almost over. We may get another pop us to as high as 1.2750/1.2820 but that's as far as I see it going at this point before the technicals will be in major overbought status. They are already there but they can still be stretched a bit more. For the next two days, it's pretty well down to econ data and headline news.

Be careful out there.

E/U Daily

Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
June 21, 2012 at 05:41 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2660/70 sell stops through 1.2635, more bids 1.2610/20, Offers 1.2700/10, 1.2730/50, buy stops above ahead of more offers 1.2790/00

GBP/USD: Offers 1.5710/20, 1.5740/50 (200 day MA 1.5750), Bids 1.5650/60, sell stops below

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8090/00, 0.8135/45, buy stops above. Bids 0.8070/75, .8055/60 and 0.8025/30

USD/JPY: Offers from 79.70 stretching up to 80.00 from exporters, buy stops above and through 80.40. Bids 79.30/40 and 79.00/10 (79.02 kijun line)

EUR/JPY: Bids 100.50/60, sell stops below ahead of bids 100.00/10, likely sell stops through 99.80. Offers 101.35/45 and 101.80/00, buy stops above

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/50 buy stops through 1.2055

USD/CHF: Bids 0.9440/50, offers 0.9490/00

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0140/50 sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.0100/10 (sell stops just below), 1.0080/00 (55 day MA @ 1.0085), sell stops below and through 1.0050. Offers 1.0200/10 and 1.0230/50 (1.0248 200 day MA) ahead of tech res 1.0260/65

AUD/JPY: Techs 80.62/72 (55+200 day MA). Bids 80.50/55 and 80.20/25. Offers 81.10/15 and 81.40/50

EUR/AUD: Tech lvl 1.2470 61.8% of this year’s rally, offers 1.2490/00. Bids 1.2440/50 and 1.2395/05, tech support 1.2350/55

NZD/USD: offers 0.8000 /10. Bids 0.7940/50 sell stops below

NZD/JPY: Tech supp 62.60/65 (62.62 200 day MA)

Euro FX Option expiries for today at 14:00 GMT

1.2800
1.2750
1.2700
1.2650
1.2600
1.2575

[quote=PipTrapper;5779389]Attachment

These screenshots are very cool ! is it a website or a program ? which one ?