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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #38,321
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:16am Jun 20, 2012 7:16am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
If helicopter Ben doesn't deliver on QE, we could possibly take a hammer also on A/U and N/U. They are extremely overbought.
Thanks FXSwissTrader, I'll keep an eye on them.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #38,322
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:23am Jun 20, 2012 7:23am
This is the chart I am keeping an eye on. A move above the top trend line could bring us to 1.276x area. We are now pulling back but I think this pull back will be limited. What is interesting as I'm writing this is that gold has just plunged $12 yet crude is unchanged and the US$ is not getting any stronger. This, I think, indicates that they are selling gold and buying the USD to gold it steady.
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #38,323
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:24am Jun 20, 2012 7:24am
Quoting Cgb
You're rocking here Doc!
thank u Cgb.i am waiting for this scenario for almost a month sitting on my hands lets see how things worked.once my position in i am looking for a target of 11900 and thats what my pitchfork,and fundamental saying.do have a look at the chart i have posted this morning [ PT's chart pointing at the same thing as well].now i have to go,all the beauties waiting for me at hosp.will see u all before fomc meeting. by the way i am closing remainng small position as well with 23 pips in pocket.and i am flat now.and now one last limit buy order at 1.2664 with leverage 1:2.5 let see if it trigger or not by the time comeback.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #38,324
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:26am Jun 20, 2012 7:26am
Quoting Cgb
PT, I've read this twice now and although I'm still working on my second espresso, this could be interpreted as "I'm ready to go long" by the statement "If he does disappoint, my hammer is ready".

I know your position is to not take longs during this corrective leg and just want to make sure that I (and maybe others on the board) don't mis-read you. Is your intention still to hold your sell limits at their current levels and hope that they get hit as the market raises?

Thanks,
Correct. I guess I should have said "If he does disappoint, my hammer is ready for use on the sell button"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,325
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:32am Jun 20, 2012 7:32am
Anybody having any luck accessing forexlive.com ?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,326
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:34am Jun 20, 2012 7:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
Anybody having any luck accessing forexlive.com ?
I'm in. you want me to post updated news?
  • #38,327
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:34am Jun 20, 2012 7:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
Anybody having any luck accessing forexlive.com ?
It's working for me...
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #38,328
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:34am Jun 20, 2012 7:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
Top 10 Ways New Forex Traders Lose Money

https://fxtrade.oanda.com/wandacache...4fce1ff0c9.jpg

Lack of Experience

Forex trading - like any new initiative - has a learning curve. However, unlike learning a new skill such as learning to play guitar for instance, you are not risking your entire savings while discovering the difference between a major and minor chord. Learning about the currency markets and basic trading principles...
Hi PT.
Thanks for this post. My account was nearly wiped out beacuse of not following the above rules!! But as the saying goes"Experience is the best lesson one can learn from....."

I have one doubt, regarding SL, while entering a trade. I repeatedly come across phrase of "SL Hunting". I am a little apprehensive about putting SL. Any thoughts?
  • #38,329
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:34am Jun 20, 2012 7:34am
Quoting Desouza
Is there anyone having problems with FXCM. I'm not receiving any quotes for the last five minutes?

Never mind, its all better they must have heard me
Mine is fine. Volume is very low though.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,330
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:35am Jun 20, 2012 7:35am
Edit: Ok, everybody is in, except of PT. Bad luck mate .
Edit no2: Btw PT, program is still not ready, but I think you have sent me in the right direction and I will finish it today.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #38,331
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:37am Jun 20, 2012 7:37am
Quoting mka_78
I'm in. you want me to post updated news?
If there is something worthwhile, please do.
In the meantime, I'm going to restart my computer.
Thanks
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,332
  • Edited 8:04am Jun 20, 2012 7:39am | Edited 8:04am
Quoting ganesh2k5
...
I have one doubt, regarding SL, while entering a trade. I repeatedly come across phrase of "SL Hunting". I am a little apprehensive about putting SL. Any thoughts?
SL hunting is a common thing in markets. Though in FX it is a bit harder to hunt stops if compared to equities or commodities. Thats why I am here in fact.

Anyway, if you dont place SL, I can promise you they are going to shoot Obama right after you go to the toilet.

Edit: 2000 post! Ok, lets make it more complex:
Since price at the market is set according to supply and demand, if you demand USD you are pushing its price up. For us, retailers, it is more of a theory, since our mini accounts cant move the price. But virtually, if you are selling EUR, you are moving its price down.

SL hunt can be done by entity, which has control over the market. It is incredibly hard to gain control over market with 4 Tril USD daily turnaround. Nevertheless, some major players, like hedge funds or giant investment banks (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, etc.,) can move price a bit, when market is tight. For example, right now, there are lots of sellers on EUR. And they have stops up there. Those stops are either SL, or margin call. When market makes correction up to strong ressistance point (lets say 1,3 for example), stops will be so close that it takes only few pips up to give margin call to loads of retailers. Thats the time for giants to step in and make a buy order, which moves price those last few pips up to hit those margins. Once retailers get their margin call, in this case it equals to buy order, since their sell will close. This can cause snowball effect and spike up, where the giant sells.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #38,333
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:43am Jun 20, 2012 7:43am
Quoting ganesh2k5
Hi PT.
Thanks for this post. My account was nearly wiped out beacuse of not following the above rules!! But as the saying goes"Experience is the best lesson one can learn from....."

I have one doubt, regarding SL, while entering a trade. I repeatedly come across phrase of "SL Hunting". I am a little apprehensive about putting SL. Any thoughts?
here the same also.
Pt you please give some examples of orders with stops to leave open for the scenario in a few hours?
If plan, maybe less perch.
Thanks
  • #38,334
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:51am Jun 20, 2012 7:51am
Okay the restart did it
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,335
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:53am Jun 20, 2012 7:53am
Updated orderboard…

Written by Pete Jackson
June 20, 2012 at 11:22 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2650/60 sell stops through 1.2640, more bids, 1.2610/20, Offers 1.2700/10 (large expiry today 1.2700), 1.2730/50 buy stops above ahead of more offers 1.2790/00

GBP/USD: Offers 1.5740/55 (200 day MA 1.5751), Option expiry 1.5700. Bids 1.5650/60, sell stops below

EUR/GBP: Offers 0. 0.8090/00, 0.8135/45, buy stops above. Bids 0.8055/60, 0.8025/30 and 0.7995/05

USD/JPY: Bids 78.80/90, sell stops through 78.75, (Tech supp 78.77-200 day MA) Bids 78.50/60 (semi official), sell stops through 78.50. Offers 79.10 trailing up to 79.50 buy stops above ahead of offers 79.70/80 (sovereigns)

EUR/JPY: Bids/tech support 99.80/90 and 99.50/60, sell stops through 99.50 ahead of more bids 99.00/15, sell stops below, Offers 100.30/40 and 101.80/00, buy stops above

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/50 buy stops through 1.2055

USD/CHF: Bids 0.9440/50, offers 0.9480/90

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0165/70, 1.0100/10, 1.0080/00 (55 day MA @ 1.0088), sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.0050/70, sell stops below 1.0050. Option expiry 1.0200. Offers/tech res 1.0215/20 and 1.0245/50 (1.0249 200 day MA) ahead of 1.0260/65

AUD/JPY: Tech res 80.67/71 (55+200 day MA) buy stops above and through 81.00. Bids 80.20/30 and 79.80/90

EUR/AUD: Tech res 1.2470 61.8% of this year’s rally, ahead of offers 1.2490/00. Bids 1.2395/05 and tech support 1.2350/55

NZD/USD: Bids 0.7900/10 sell stops below. Offers 0.7980/00
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,336
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:57am Jun 20, 2012 7:57am
Despite the newly formed greek government
and
3.85% fall of the Spanish 10Y bonds (6.77100) under the 7%

pair is still struggling right above 1.27 and can't pick a direction
  • #38,337
  • Jun 20, 2012 8:01am Jun 20, 2012 8:01am
Quoting kik
..
Pt you please give some examples of orders with stops to leave open for the scenario in a few hours?
...
PT, while you will be doing your charity, please send me some cash. I will PM you my account number ok?

Ok seriously. kik, you can not ask for such thing. I am really iterested in PTs answer. Point is, everyone has different strategy. You have different size of an account. You enter different number of trades. You can risk different size of your equity. You aim for different profit.

To sum it up - every trader has his own strategy and money management.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #38,338
  • Jun 20, 2012 8:01am Jun 20, 2012 8:01am
Quoting kik
here the same also.
Pt you please give some examples of orders with stops to leave open for the scenario in a few hours?
If plan, maybe less perch.
Thanks
I could, but then it wouldn't be your trade plan... it would be mine.

I don't have any plans to open any new orders with stop loss. If I open a new order it will be a sell if Bernanke disappoints the markets and it will not have a stop loss because I believe the upside is very limited. But, that is my belief and it is my risk to take.

In order to trade these markets, you need to have your own trading plan based on what works for you in your risk comfort zone. You need to identify the risk of every trade and then find your limit of that risk. That is where you place a stop loss if you want to use one.

Leverage is important. If you want to give the trade lots of breathing room, then you have to reduce your lot size accordingly.

Hope the above helps.

I am not offering anyone a trade signal service. I am only sharing what I am doing. Follow at your own risk.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,339
  • Jun 20, 2012 8:04am Jun 20, 2012 8:04am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
PT, while you will be doing your charity, please send me some cash. I will PM you my account number ok?

Ok seriously. kik, you can not ask for such thing. I am really iterested in PTs answer. Point is, everyone has different strategy. You have different size of an account. You enter different number of trades. You can risk different size of your equity. You aim for different profit.

To sum it up - every trader has his own strategy and money management.

T
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,340
  • Jun 20, 2012 8:07am Jun 20, 2012 8:07am
Quoting kik
here the same also.
Pt you please give some examples of orders with stops to leave open for the scenario in a few hours?
If plan, maybe less perch.
Thanks
Kik, I very often post little tidbits of my opinions of current market sentiment and almost every morning, I do a market update with fundamental and technical analysis. Just search this thread with the words "Morning Update" and you will find them all. Hope they are helpful to you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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