EURUSD

very nice chart indeed . keep them coming . with nzd i would go for a short at these levels as i was watching it and i didnt expect this rally as it came to 61.8 fib of .8314 and .7472 so i label it first leg of correction a so now there should be a downside movement of b which could take the price down to 90% of the rally i d have a sloss on it .8024 and my target is the lows .75 . good luck mate

I have a E/U view as yours for a long move.

Should the US approach June 30 and end up with the highly improbable scenario where there is no follow through monetization, which following Bill Gross' commentary from yesterday (which in turn piggy backs on what we have been saying for months - monetizing of gross issuance and all that) appears unlikely, what would happen to risk, and other, assets? Providing empirical color to that eventuality, which with every passing day is ever more urgent, is David Rosenberg who answers the question: "What happens if there is no QE3?"
We are now being asked this constantly and the follow-up is “who picks up the slack if the Fed stops its bond-buying program”?
The answer(s) is hardly complicated since we have a template for this in 2010. It is a very simple guidepost.
Last year, from April 23rd through to August 27th, the Fed allowed its balance sheet to shrink from $1.207 trillion to $1.057 trillion for a 12% contraction as QE1 drew to a close. Go back a year to the Federal Open Market Committee minutes and you will see a Federal Reserve consumed with forecasts of sustainable growth and exit strategy plans. A sizeable equity correction coupled with double-dip fears were nowhere to be found.
Now over that interval ...

1. S&P 500 sagged from 1,217 to 1,064.
2. S&P 600 small caps fell from 394 to 330.
3. The best performing equity sectors were telecom services, utilities, consumer staples, and health care. In other words — the defensives. The worst performers were financials, tech, energy, and consumer discretionary.
4. Baa spreads widened +56bps from 237bps to 296bps
5. CRB futures dropped from 279 to 267.
6. Oil went from $84.30 a barrel to $75.20.
7. The VIX index jumped from 16.6 to 24.5.
8. The trade-weighted dollar index (major currencies) firmed to 76.5 from 75.5.
9. Gold was the commodity that bucked the trend as it acted as a refuge at a time of intensifying economic and financial uncertainty — to $1,235 an ounce from $1,140 and even with a more stable-to-strong U.S. dollar too.
10. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note plunged to 2.66% from 3.84%.

So you see, the bond market actually does better (same was true during QE1) without the Fed balance sheet expansion than with it. Why? Because the Fed’s real goal is to ignite investor risk appetite. Bernanke et all have not kept it a secret that the real aim of the QEs is to generate a liquidity-induced rally in the equity market. If bond yields end up rising as they have for most of the past six months but occurs with a rising stock market and greater economic strength, then the Fed is totally cool with that and again Mr. Bernanke has stated that very bluntly (even if the higher mortgage rates that ensue drive another knife into the heart of the housing market). When the Fed stops QE, as we saw last year, risk appetite fades and the economy sputters — a development that will likely be even more acute this time around given the accelerating fiscal restraint at all levels of government that is just around the corner.
So who buys the bonds when Ben leaves the building?
The same folks who were the buyers last year from April to August. The ones who were switching out of equities, commodities, and other risk-assets.
Now you know how to play the second half of the year!

See those two candles to the high? It wont break that and it aint going back.

lol! market maker right here

Ok, you may be right on that now and the major trend is short. I closed out all my longs but this last one (just a small order) to protect the 7.5% I made this week so far.

The FOMC statement could be the reason enough to drive the E/U 100-150 pips either way. I'm just an intraday and scalper trader trying to follow the market makers money flow.

I'll be setting up my real trades later in the session.

Trade Safe,
Cheers

If this 4 hour bar closes in bullish small _ or even bearish small _

This could actually make the price goes up again. May have a re-test @ 1.2720- 1.2730 later.

just looking at eu 2767.5 (i may not short it).. i cant duplicate it now.. i saw something at 2751 and some nice r at 2832. 2832 could work nice as a r for 2816.5 target

s aud 0183 stops above the high. st tp 0143, or more

And you might be right!

Best Regards,
Pico.

took the profit from 1.2718 to 1.2670...just turned it around gonna see if i can run it up to 1.2750....not sure how much longer I can stay awake...it's been a martini and extras night...good luck gentlemen...

This is exactly what I'm hoping for.

This is what we have for the remaining sessions ahead on WEDNESDAY ...

1.)

2012-06-19_23h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rollover _ W-25 # A72 (Text EN)

Quick-Tips in a TABLE SURVEY for the EUR/USD: with explaning text ...

23h00 CET Aufdatung ...

End of Day and latest UPDATE (ROLLOVER CLOSE) ...

This contains an OUTLOOK for the trading sessions ahead of this week no. 25 ...

###

And as it has been mentioned several before in our own trading sections ...

Major move up might have been done ...

Once crossed below those mentioned zone 1.2631 then you can forget the upside at first ...

Then it may trade to the lower side again ...

Next challenge will be 1.2597 and 1.2550 then ...



2.)

2012-06-19_23h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rollover _ W-25 # A72 (Text EN)

Valid as long as resistances near 1.2748/ 54 may curtail upside for now ... which looks likely atm ...






palim palim






;-|

way ahead of the game, right or wrong.. as for as reality atm.. i had a bounce target for the aud at a min of .0195.. we did that and a little better. after a target is hit many times it goes back to 3/4 of the way from where it started. in this case that would be 9913.7.. atm i have a short indication for .0143 the first sign i have of weakness. i would have normally waited for .0187+ to scalp a short. atm that is all this is. but it can develop.

Your can open under trading journal

"Major move up might have been done ..."

I'm also expecting some drop at least during european session.

i can see a pennant formation in 1h chart and a double tops in 4h chart.getting confused.its going to be a bear or a strong bull again???

i have add short kiwi 7953 sl 7968 tp open, is adding, waiting to see if present retest of 1hr rising tl co insides with todays asian zone, nromally hated franky, so tentative watching reaction.

Not trading this market til the Central banks release all their crap(BOJ, BOE and Fed). With stimulus expectations so high it is going to be very volatile today.

I think after FED`s announce, bearish today.