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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #38,081
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:12am Jun 19, 2012 8:12am
Quoting marco mp
Why EUR going up ?
US datas are fine than should be US going stronger vs EUR !!!!
Read this post for an explanation...


Quoting PipTrapper
I cannot discount your reasoning because I simply don't know. However, this is how I see it...

In simplistic terms, here is an example...

1. The market is short the Euro and there is no letting up because things are really bad. So after 1 month everybody is still short.

2. The reasons for being short are still there but the bad news is all out so there are no new sellers jumping in. Also the technicals are really stretched which further provides disincentive for shorting more.

3. At this point the downtrend stalls...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,082
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:14am Jun 19, 2012 8:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
...
4. Once enough traders have covered their shorts and created a technical correction on the charts, then speculatoirs (provided the news is still bad or even getting worse), add fresh short positions, sending price further down on its next leg.

5. Repeat steps 2 to 5.

Nice analysis of bearish trend. It is fooked up so we short it, then we cover and hit few long fools, repeat. Wtf do I still learn all that suff when it is that simple?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #38,083
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:15am Jun 19, 2012 8:15am
I hate when markets move like this. When pullbacks are non existent and instead we consolidate with a 2 pip range for 5 minutes, then move higher.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #38,084
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:16am Jun 19, 2012 8:16am
Quoting drzakir123
PT,i think ur and tom earlier posts make more sense than this.

the reason is i can see more clearly where these long term time framer {both buyer and seller}stand in relation to market and how they move,becos once they move all technicals,fundamentals and sentimental will flood out and of no use,and one feel like a particle in storm.
You have to look at what I wrote in its proper context... The context of a "simplistic" explanation of how the markets usually move. It was not meant to explain the intricacies
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,085
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:20am Jun 19, 2012 8:20am
Bull. dvg. on H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-bull-dvg.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #38,086
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:23am Jun 19, 2012 8:23am
Quoting Chika Kure
Bull. dvg. on H4
Yup very nice. I wish I had a divergence indicator for RSI and MACD as that would help me spot these much easier. I only have one for CCI and i dont like CCI nearly as much, it only shows 1hr bull divergences from yesterdays down move, not any 4hr divergence, but i clearly see it on my RSI
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #38,087
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:26am Jun 19, 2012 8:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
You have to look at what I wrote in its proper context... The context of a "simplistic" explanation of how the markets usually move. It was not meant to explain the intricacies
i think,now i have become more of a complex person becos both of u,simplistic explanation doesn't hold much of an appeal to me
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #38,088
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:31am Jun 19, 2012 8:31am
well, longs from 2610 - 2615 working out well... partial profits taken at 2636...stops above BE...targeting 2657 and 2695....

knew i'd catch a decent move sometime tonight

X
  • #38,089
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:36am Jun 19, 2012 8:36am
Just a little thought I am writing everytime, when I see discussion about divergences. Divergences are measured on different momentum indicators (+MACD, which I dont use for purpose of divergence). With momentum indicators, it is like with telescope. If you zoom too much, you see storm around and divergence appeares every few hours. If you zoom too far, you will see a calm sea, peacefull market without any divergences.

When listening to divergences as an indicator of market movement, one should watch divergence grow from tiny timeframe and watch it making its way into higher timeframes like H4 and daily. On these higer timeframes, divergence shouldnt appear very often. If divergence appears every few days on daily chart, you are zoomed in too much. Divergence can mark significant turning point, but only once in a time.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #38,090
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:36am Jun 19, 2012 8:36am
Quoting drzakir123
all technicals,fundamentals and sentimental will flood out and of no use,and one feel like a particle in storm.
I like that imagery. Except when I'm one of those particles!
  • #38,091
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:40am Jun 19, 2012 8:40am
look at this chart,price seems to creeping up the lower parallel like.i like to short this as near as median line.say if this move fail to reach median line then the price going to move and touch blue trigger line below and beyond.this is the same charts as of this morning.let see how things work out.the best short entry will be either 1.2820 or below blue trigger line on closing basis
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: median line.gif Size: 48 KB
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #38,092
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:40am Jun 19, 2012 8:40am
hey there ya'll

can we consider this as a divergence? it's eur/usd weekly chart
it creeps me out

http://i47.tinypic.com/2le6ihl.jpg
  • #38,093
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:47am Jun 19, 2012 8:47am
I love martingale scalping.. I added shorts at 37 and it didnt work so I added 3x as much short at 48 with a tight stop, and i got back to BE on original scalp + gain from martingale scalp, and a net gain of 0.3% (if stopped out would have been net loss of 0.35% on original scalp + martingale)

note: martingale without smart money management = potential to rip your account to shreads! i had a stop loss at 54 on my larger short from 48
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #38,094
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:50am Jun 19, 2012 8:50am
Quoting irfandbl
hey there ya'll

can we consider this as a divergence? it's eur/usd weekly chart
it creeps me out

http://i47.tinypic.com/2le6ihl.jpg
I see this as well but its only barely a divergence. PT what is your take on it?
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #38,095
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:53am Jun 19, 2012 8:53am
Quoting BFSGcapital
I love martingale scalping.. I added shorts at 37 and it didnt work so I added 3x as much short at 48 with a tight stop, and i got back to BE on original scalp + gain from martingale scalp, and a net gain of 0.3% (if stopped out would have been net loss of 0.35% on original scalp + martingale)

note: martingale without smart money management = potential to rip your account to shreads! i had a stop loss at 54 on my larger short from 48
only machines can play martingale.humans should use only antimartingale.,
with martingale ur just one mistake away from humbleness.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #38,096
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:55am Jun 19, 2012 8:55am
Quoting BFSGcapital
I love martingale scalping.. I added shorts at 37 and it didnt work so I added 3x as much short at 48 with a tight stop, and i got back to BE on original scalp + gain from martingale scalp, and a net gain of 0.3% (if stopped out would have been net loss of 0.35% on original scalp + martingale)

note: martingale without smart money management = potential to rip your account to shreads! i had a stop loss at 54 on my larger short from 48
Martingale... The potential grim reaper of Forex.

http://www.investmentkit.com/article...rim_reaper.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,097
  • Jun 19, 2012 8:56am Jun 19, 2012 8:56am
Quoting BFSGcapital
I see this as well but its only barely a divergence. PT what is your take on it?
I see it with my 12/24/9 MacD also but it's too slight to worry about for now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #38,098
  • Edited 9:09am Jun 19, 2012 8:57am | Edited 9:09am
Quoting drzakir123
only machines can play martingale.humans should use only antimartingale.,
with martingale ur just one mistake away from humbleness.
0.35% loss wouldn't have hurt that bad. thats why on the 2nd position you use extremely tight stop.

but i just knew how low risk it was, we had no pullback yet and was 2 pips away from 50 fib, and not only did i save my position from 0.15% loss, but i made 0.30% net

i agree though, generally adding to losers is stupid, thats why you need low leverage on the original so the martingale scalp can get you back to BE easily without giving you an enormous loss if you are wrong.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #38,099
  • Jun 19, 2012 9:06am Jun 19, 2012 9:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
I see it with my 12/24/9 MacD also but it's too slight to worry about for now.
Do you mean the slope of the divergence is too slight?
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #38,100
  • Jun 19, 2012 9:11am Jun 19, 2012 9:11am
Inverse h/s on E/J really played out well. I almost bought at 99.45 when it was forming right shoulder
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
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