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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #37,981
  • Jun 19, 2012 3:55am Jun 19, 2012 3:55am
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #37,982
  • Jun 19, 2012 3:56am Jun 19, 2012 3:56am
So we are down 50 pips, then right back up again...
  • #37,983
  • Jun 19, 2012 3:58am Jun 19, 2012 3:58am
Quoting 100PipsADay
So we are down 50 pips, then right back up again...

Welcome to the clusterf**k zone
"Don't Panic..."
  • #37,984
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:05am Jun 19, 2012 4:05am
Quoting 100PipsADay
So we are down 50 pips, then right back up again...
ZEW economic sentiment went horribly wrong which drove price down and triggered institutional bids

Expect more down now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #37,985
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:07am Jun 19, 2012 4:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
ZEW economic sentiment went horribly wrong which drove price down and triggered institutional bids

Expect more down now.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment-16.9 vs +3.8 expected vs +10.8 last

ZEW Economic Sentiment-20.1 vs -5.7 expected vs -2.4 last
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #37,986
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:08am Jun 19, 2012 4:08am
Interesting reaction, hope it takes us out of the chop zone.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #37,987
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:10am Jun 19, 2012 4:10am
Quoting Halifax
Interesting reaction, hope it takes us out of the chop zone.
talk about a bull vs bear battle
  • #37,988
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:15am Jun 19, 2012 4:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
That's as bearish as you can get. After yesterday's comment that the Spanish banks could need around €150 Billion, ....
I think as well, that final number will be much higher. Lets say 400 Bil.

All numbers pointing towards 100 bil euro heavily underestimate Spanish Economy. For christ sake, they are like 14th biggest economy in the world. Just few little facts I remember from last year. From August to September, 200 bil Euro left Greece banking system (Only left to Swiss, I dont talk about default now). Greek sovereign bonds which were about to default had to be bailed out. This number is now around 300 bil. In those days, Greek Debt/GDP ratio was about 160%.

Situation nowadays is after injection of 2 Tril EUR thanks to LTRO and bond buying programs. Spanish economy is five times bigger, banking sector debt is around 200%!, yet we are talking about same numbers as with Greece. Nono, final number will be much much higher.

Edit: Another reason for the number to be much higher is the fact, that Greek public sector didnt have such an exposure to retail sector. Unlike Spanish banks, which are heavily exposed. So they are now hit with a combo - retail sector crash + sovereign bond market crash. And I dont think that those 50% of youth unemploed Spaniards will make enough savings to cover these losses.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #37,989
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:15am Jun 19, 2012 4:15am
As I said earlier in my morning update, expect the market to be driven by headlines and throw your technical indicators out the window for now.

Now we have an "unknown" EU official claiming that they expect to revise MOU (Minutes of understanding) with Greece.

That cause some short covering by the nervous shorts. There's always loads of them hitting that "close" button when they pee their pants.

Okay fine, but nobody can convince me that Merkel is going to agree to that.

http://images.sodahead.com/polls/002..._2_xlarge.jpeg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #37,990
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:16am Jun 19, 2012 4:16am
Quoting neuron
talk about a bull vs bear battle
Lol, yeah

I've got contingency plans for going both ways, but US didn't get to sell the highs yesterday, so hopefully London will position for a US session sell off. That's all I can guess from this reaction, could be utterly wrong
"Don't Panic..."
  • #37,991
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:18am Jun 19, 2012 4:18am
Quoting neuron
talk about a bull vs bear battle
http://www.humanaction.co.za/wp-cont...bullbears1.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #37,992
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:20am Jun 19, 2012 4:20am
Quoting PipTrapper

http://images.sodahead.com/polls/002..._2_xlarge.jpeg
.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #37,993
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:24am Jun 19, 2012 4:24am


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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #37,994
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:26am Jun 19, 2012 4:26am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I think as well, that final number will be much higher. Lets say 400 Bil.

All numbers pointing towards 100 bil euro heavily underestimate Spanish Economy. For christ sake, they are like 14th biggest economy in the world. Just few little facts I remember from last year. From August to September, 200 bil Euro left Greece banking system (Only left to Swiss, I dont talk about default now). Greek sovereign bonds which were about to default had to be bailed out. This number is now around 300 bil. In those days, Greek Debt/GDP ratio was about 160%.

Situation...
Yep... Sound reasoning. Anyway, it is clear we will probably not find out until September. By then things may be a bit better, or much worse.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #37,995
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:27am Jun 19, 2012 4:27am
Curious, not that it really matters, but how does forex live know who the buyer is?
  • #37,996
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:29am Jun 19, 2012 4:29am
Quoting neuron
Curious, how does forex live know who the buyer is?
These guys are industry veterans and have snitches or other contacts who have snitches all over the place.
The Forex industry on the institutional level is a very small and tightly knit community. Word gets around fast... just like in a small hick town.

http://www.westernmininghistory.com/...towns/rico.jpg
http://rlv.zcache.com/redneck_hillbi...3bhfuu_400.jpg
http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/3099/hick3ey.jpg
http://media.urbandictionary.com/ima...hick-23787.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #37,997
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:29am Jun 19, 2012 4:29am
Quoting neuron
Curious, not that it really matters, but how does forex live know who the buyer is?
I think they are throwing darts and guess.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #37,998
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:32am Jun 19, 2012 4:32am
Starting to look just like last week.

Gap up, large D1 candle, then bull rally the rest of the week. Anybody think this will happen again this week?

Even with horrible news we get bull rally! I personally have a hard time with the E/U pair.
  • #37,999
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:35am Jun 19, 2012 4:35am
Quoting PipTrapper


Attachment
"If you want logical moves go trade something else. this is forex!!"

that quote is priceless. hahahahahaha.

it reminds me of this.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #38,000
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:37am Jun 19, 2012 4:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
These guys are industry veterans and have snitches or other contacts who have snitches all over the place.
The Forex industry on the institutional level is a very small and tightly knit community. Word gets around fast... just like in a small hick town.

http://www.westernmininghistory.com/...towns/rico.jpg
http://rlv.zcache.com/redneck_hillbi...3bhfuu_400.jpg
http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/3099/hick3ey.jpg
http://media.urbandictionary.com/ima...hick-23787.jpg...
LOL Classic...
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