EURUSD

my new target 1.19

What's your view on this article on DailyFX?
It keeps me bearish but everyone here seems looking for a EUR/USD Jump, i dont know why.

Whoever wins wont have a big lead enought to be solely in control...
So mess ahead in all cases...

Well, this is just for information, because I don't think many of you can understand Chinese.

Also, I think, the author forgot about the 50 seats for the winner.

ECB’s Draghi: We have reached a contingency in short term



what that means now?

Im in long with you.

this article only shows the possibilities of a temporary direction after the greek election. The most important is how will the central banks react after Sunday. The scenario is already written.

what's written?
The way of the gap?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...k_Unclear.html

Yes

google translates this:

Greek general election or will drive the market to fluctuate significantly, the euro uncertainty at 12:52 on June 15 2012
Following the May 6, after the Greek general election failed this weekend, Greece will have to re-election. Different from the first election, the June 17 election is even more significant, the market expected the final result will give the market a great deal of turmoil. In view of the weekend election time the market closed, we expect the markets opened Monday morning at 5 o'clock, we saw not only the gap, but easy to unusual sharply upward. But we do not think it is very suitable for trading, we propose to reduce the position to respond to the impact of market uncertainty risk.

To help investors make trading decisions, we will be Greece that may arise election results, a brief summary and overview of candidates of each party.

Greece re-election results may ultimately decide the fate of Greece in the euro area

This weekend to compete for the political parties of the ruling party is the most important two, the New Democratic Party of support assistance and very left-wing parties opposed to rescue Syriza. In a sense, this election a large extent will determine the ultimate fate of Greece in the euro zone, especially when we consider the speech of other European countries, officials recently feel the case. This means: the victory of New Democratic Party of Greece will be more pro-European, and If Syriza final victory, Greece will be more alienated in the euro zone.

We believe that the most likely the result of four kinds, and these results bearish euro may be very large:

Scenario 1: New Democratic Party won the election and to obtain a parliamentary majority (> 151), the euro bullish, the possibility of 10%
Case 2: New Democratic Party won the election is not the parliamentary majority, the euro bearish, the possibility of 45% (slightly negative)
Case 3: Syriza victory was not agreed by the parliamentary majority, the euro bearish, the possibility of 40% (medium negative)
Case 4: Syriza victory and get a parliamentary majority, the euro bearish, the possibility of 5% (severe bad)

For all of the above circumstances, we find that great results may not be the first case, on the contrary the probability of the second and third situations. About the possibility of data from some recent poll data as well as Greek citizens and journalists comment Statistics.


Recent public opinion statistics

Popular periodicals - the evaluation of one of the leading company in Greece - recently conducted a telephone survey, the survey from May 25 to May 30, surveyed 1210 adults in the coverage of a wider, these subjects throughout the Greek world. The survey results show that Syri za support rate of 31.5 percent ranked first in the New Democratic Party support was 25.5%, PASOK 13.5% support rate, Golden Dawn, the party support rate of 7.5%. Compared with the previous week, the support of the Syr iza rate increased by 1.5%, New Democratic Party support has fallen by 0.5%, PASOK support has fallen to 2%. The adjustment of error is + / -2.8%.

A survey conducted by Kapa Research for the local press in Athens Nea Times while the 1012 individual samples, survey date for May 29 to May 31. The results show that the New Democratic Party support was 26.1%, to the Syriza support was 23.6%, PASOK support for the 9.9%. Compared with last May 23-24 survey, the New Democratic Party's support rate rose by 0.3 percent, an increase of 3.5 percent in Syriza PASOK decreased by 3.1%. Error adjustment of + / -3.1%.

A media survey shows that the New Democratic Party's support rate of 26.5%, the the Syriza support was 24.2%, PASOK's support rate was 9.9%.


If you want to know more about the candidates of each party, and below we will be the New Democratic Party and Syriza party interpretation.

New Democratic Party ruling advocate

Will reduce taxes and increase employment as part of the re-negotiated agreement with creditors before all negotiations
Reset some taxes, such as property tax introduced by the autumn of last year, will be more equitable levy
Revocation to reduce pensions and cut the terms of the wages of police and the Air Force, to promote employment
Relief in the debt crisis were hardest hit, low-income families and small businesses
Help liabilities family to repay bank debt
Accelerating structural reform and privatization process, the reconstruction of the public sector is not large-scale layoffs
Greek creditor before 2013, public expenditure reduction of 11.7 billion euros task, should be progressively completed in four years after the party leader Samaras
Claim of maritime exclusive economic zone of natural resources exploitation rights
Crack down on illegal immigrants

Syriza ruling advocate

To build a firewall to help the Greek community to respond to crisis
Unconditional guarantee of the lowest income (unemployment benefits), health care, social security and housing, and to ensure that all citizens are entitled to public utility services
Implementation of protection and relief of liabilities family
Price controls to curb price increases to reduce the VAT and cancel the VAT of the basic necessities of life
To resolve the debt burden through the following means:
Temporary suspension of debt service
Debt cancellation negotiations
Adjust the remaining debt to the economic development and employment are well protected
To fundamentally change the role of the ECB
Ban on speculative financial products
Wealth, financial transactions and profits to the formation of a pan-European tax system
Redistribution of income taxation increase the rich to Abatement unnecessary expenses
The formation of efficient social reconstruction of the environmental systems
Nationalization of banks
Job stability and decent wages, social security system
Deepen the democratization of the degree of democracy: political and all social rights
Reconstruction of a strong welfare state
Emergency assistance to state pension system
The introduction of minimum income security system
Free health care expenditures in the future from the public health system
Agreed policies to protect public education, scientific research, culture and sports
Independent foreign policy, to promote peace
The quest for peace diplomacy
States military bases out of NATO, to close the Greek territory
Assistance to the people of Cyprus to complete a unified


Christopher Vecchio, writing Mengjiang Tao translation
__________________
Self discipline and Social Commitment

And the direction after the election

We believe there are four likely outcomes to these elections, with the highest probability of a Euro-negative outcome this weekend. They are:
SCENARIO #1: New Democracy wins elections and has parliamentary majority (> 151 votes) – EUR BULLISH – 10%
SCENARIO #2: New Democracy wins elections but does not have majority – EUR BEARISH (least bearish outcome) – 45%
SCENARIO #3: Syriza wins elections but does not have majority – EUR BEARISH (increasingly bearish outcome) – 40%
SCENARIO #4: Syriza wins elections and has parliamentary majority – EUR BEARISH (most bearish outcome) – 5%

But I like Roubinis idea, how to solve the crisis

thats it marked is dead.
waiting to big monday.
at the end of u.s session euro bulls will panic and will close they positions. then euro will fall a little to 2560-2570

Yea, no one really mentioning this enough...vote over weekend wont immediately solve anything and probably lead to big greek political mess

Good area to short EURUSD @ 1.2660-80??

My indicators indicates at least a little upside 10-15 pip, could it be good?

These 2 possibilities most probable and neither will solve anything for near future..but its bearish and I like that..

im bearish too... but i fear it opens with an up gap....
I'm already in disbelief seeing that it stays above 1.26...

long eu. looking for 660. then short from there

It seems the market is assuming that PASOK and New Democracy will be able to form a government - the 50 seat bonus for the winning party is a real game-changer! I'm not sure if this will really solve Greece's problems - what Greece needs is a devaluation, but of course with the Euro that's can't happen. You might have a majority government, but the political instability, rioting, etc, could be really intense. I think it's going to be a long, hot summer in Greece.