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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #37,161
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:00pm Jun 14, 2012 4:00pm
PT,when they say providing liquidity,is that mean providing lot of dollar and euro in the system so that price dont move in either direction much?
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,162
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:09pm Jun 14, 2012 4:09pm
I had to post this here cause I already posted it on EUR/USD thread and this thread (Euranalysis) is the best thread on here...no disrespect to PT intended as he is the best moderator on here as well but these are the fact maam...

I just thought I would let everyone here know this market is an unmitigated fraud. Its not due exclusively to the fact I am losing. It is a fraud. This is "gentleman's gambling." Spain has soaring interest rates on its bonds yet the market is progressing upward? Greece is primed to exit the currency and the markets continue progressing upward? This whole charade is just that....a charade. WTF. Good luck in all of your all's gambling endeavors haha.
  • #37,163
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:19pm Jun 14, 2012 4:19pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
flat for sure. no need to take unnecessary risks.
I agree. very rational. I was flat before.....now, however,....i am about to take an unnecessary risk right now: going short at 1.2635......
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #37,164
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:21pm Jun 14, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting quidproquo
I had to post ...
4 Tril USD daily. Thats the best chance for market to be clean of interventions.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #37,165
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:22pm Jun 14, 2012 4:22pm
Quoting Skynet
where i intend to short the euro:
UPDATE: short entered at 1.2635. Let us see how this turns out giving the insanity on us.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-06-13_11-46_OANDA.jpg Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-06-14_17-10_OANDA(2).jpg Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-06-14_17-10_OANDA.jpg Size: 63 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-06-14_17-12_OANDA.jpg Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-06-14_17-18_OANDA.jpg Size: 55 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #37,166
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:26pm Jun 14, 2012 4:26pm
HAHAHAHAHA.

With all due respect:

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid.

Quoting quidproquo
i had to post this here cause i already posted it on eur/usd thread and this thread (euranalysis) is the best thread on here...no disrespect to pt intended as he is the best moderator on here as well but these are the fact maam...

I just thought i would let everyone here know this market is an unmitigated fraud. Its not due exclusively to the fact i am losing. It is a fraud. This is "gentleman's gambling." spain has soaring interest rates on its bonds yet the market is progressing upward? Greece is primed to exit the currency and the markets...

Quoting drzakir123
even before i feel anything and its gone,no strenth left

hahahaha.

you and your one liners.


Quoting PipTrapper
Tomorrow is Quadruple witching Friday.. Four type of options contracts expire tomorrow.

It's gonna be volatile boys and girls (and hermaphrodites)

Buckle your seat belts and prepare to ride the gravy train.

I'm outta here for now.

Back later.


this will definitely make my short behave interestingly wont it?
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #37,167
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:27pm Jun 14, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting drzakir123
PT,when they say providing liquidity,is that mean providing lot of dollar and euro in the system so that price dont move in either direction much?
The liquidity they will provide in case of a negative outcome on Monday has absolutely nothing to do with controlling FX rates. It is to do with ensuring that the banks have enough cash to work with in order to prevent a credit freeze.

Price will still move in either direction based on where the capital flows to and from. Without liquidity, such capital will not be able to flow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #37,168
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:32pm Jun 14, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Exclusive: Central banks ready to combat...
Hehe, sooner better than later. I wonder how much they provide. Or if thats a hoax. Btw, how about Spains private sector bailout of 100++ bil?

Anyway, I will reload after correction up to 1.29 - 1.3.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #37,169
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:37pm Jun 14, 2012 4:37pm
Quoting Skynet
I agree. very rational. I was flat before.....now, however,....i am about to take an unnecessary risk right now: going short at 1.2635......
skynet ur a blue blooded risk taker,i admire u for that.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,170
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:41pm Jun 14, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting Skynet
I agree. very rational. I was flat before.....now, however,....i am about to take an unnecessary risk right now: going short at 1.2635......
I'm doing the same...let see what happens
  • #37,171
  • Edited 5:00pm Jun 14, 2012 4:42pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting quidproquo
I had to post this here cause I already posted it on EUR/USD thread and this thread (Euranalysis) is the best thread on here...no disrespect to PT intended as he is the best moderator on here as well but these are the fact maam...

I just thought I would let everyone here know this market is an unmitigated fraud. Its not due exclusively to the fact I am losing. It is a fraud. This is "gentleman's gambling." Spain has soaring interest rates on its bonds yet the market is progressing upward? Greece is primed to exit the currency and the markets...
Quid,

I understand how you feel. I've been there many years ago. Looking at the charts in awe completely convinced that the system was rigged. Well, it's not so. Sure the big players with the deep pockets are the one who move the markets... not us lowly retail traders, but still, it's an open market and the only way these markets are manipulated is via central bank interventions... and even their influence is limited coz it's a losing battle for them.

The move up in the Euro is quite simple to explain. There is much fear around. Not only fear of a bad economy or major losses by bond holders, but also (and probably more important) fear from those who are short the Euro, that if they don't cover their short positions now, they will end up giving all their gains back to the market. Quite simple really. Nothing goes in a straight line for too long in this market without a correction, and that correction is long overdue. Market psychology will make sure it happens. No fraud.

The key to avoid being a victim of a short squeeze is to trade with very low leverage. Never wager any more than 10:1 leverage (1 standard lot per $10,000 of capital) and never go all in on one position. If you limit each position to 1:1 leverage (0.1 lots / 1 mini lot) per $10,000 of capital, you can scale in with 9 additional positions as the trade moves in your favor and you will still be within the max 10:1 leverage.

Ideally you shouldn't exceed 5:1 leverage but as long as you're good in the green and it's a very low risk trade, an aggregate total of 10:1 is cool. Push it any more than that and you're being a pig. Remember... Pigs get slaughtered. Don't be one.

ADD: I currently have 12 short positions open, I am solidly in the green, my average price is in the high 1.37xx region and my current leverage is 4.1:1 Tomorrow I may cover some of my shorts to reduce my leverage before the weekend so that if this sucker shoots up to say 1.2810, I won't give so much back to the market, plus I will have more available leverage to add fresh shorts. This has only been possible by keeping my exposure low and having conservative goals for returns. Anyone out there who thinks they can consistently double their account every month is just playing with a time bomb. Take it from someone who many years ago experienced a couple of margin calls and hasn't even come close to making that same mistake since. I have nothing to gain by changing your mind, but perhaps you and anybody else reading this may benefit from it. If I haven't managed to change your mind, then perhaps this business is not for you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #37,172
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:43pm Jun 14, 2012 4:43pm
Quoting drzakir123
skynet ur a blue blooded risk taker,i admire u for that.
I am short also... 1.2630 TARGET: 1.255
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #37,173
  • Jun 14, 2012 5:02pm Jun 14, 2012 5:02pm
Hi Luis,

why you shorted this market at this time? Be aware, this is a super bull market!

forexBOOM
  • #37,174
  • Jun 14, 2012 5:04pm Jun 14, 2012 5:04pm
Quoting forexboom
Hi Luis,

why you shorted this market at this time? Be aware, this is a super bull market!

forexBOOM
Thank you, Yes we are more bull than sh$/$%.., but it needs a correction first and for me the the cycle from 1.2440 to here is done.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #37,175
  • Jun 14, 2012 5:06pm Jun 14, 2012 5:06pm
Quoting forexboom
Hi Luis,

why you shorted this market at this time? Be aware, this is a super bull market!

forexBOOM
You're right but I would not call it a super bull market. This is just a correction.
Most of the large players who wanted to cover their short positions have probably already done so. There might be some more positional adjustments tomorrow but it should be limited and it could go either way due to being a quadruple witching Friday.

The real move will come after the Greek elections, and even then, it's gonna be very volatile until the market deciphers the implications of the results.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #37,176
  • Jun 14, 2012 5:12pm Jun 14, 2012 5:12pm
Hi PT,

what you think will happen if Greece will remain in Euro? Do you think the market going up is already discounting this?


forexBOOM

ADD: Or it will go up further?
  • #37,177
  • Jun 14, 2012 5:12pm Jun 14, 2012 5:12pm
careful guys, 1.2660 is coming
  • #37,178
  • Jun 14, 2012 5:17pm Jun 14, 2012 5:17pm
What are your expectations if :
Pro-bailout party wins? (still keeping austerity measures & stays in EuroZone)
Anti-austerity party wins? (no more austerity, but want to stay in EuroZone, but how?



I'm bit puzzled about what to do with my positions... i'm short at the moment but fear an 300bp upside jump...
  • #37,179
  • Jun 14, 2012 5:20pm Jun 14, 2012 5:20pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
I am short also... 1.2630 TARGET: 1.255
your TP is around my own too: chart attached:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-06-14_18-18_OANDA.jpg Size: 72 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #37,180
  • Jun 14, 2012 5:23pm Jun 14, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting forexboom
Hi PT,

what you think will happen if Greece will remain in Euro? Do you think the market going up is already discounting this?


forexBOOM

ADD: Or it will go up further?
Everybody already knows that Greece will remain in the Euro. The population wants it, the politicians want it and Germany wants it.

The problem is that if the Syriza party wins, the holders of Greek debt (mostly banks and the official sector) are going to have some trouble from Tsipras through tough re-negotiations of the bailout package. If ND is elected, there will probably still be re-negotiations to a certain degree but they will probably be more friendly. These may not be the actual fact but they are the perception and that is more important than reality.

Anyway, I think that if Syriza wins or if whoever wins is not able to form a coalition, the Euro will go down. If ND wins and manages to form a coalition with Pasok, the Euro will go up for a bit before coming down again.

Again I stress, I do not believe Greece will exit. If they do, where are they going to get their free money from?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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