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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #36,181
  • Jun 14, 2012 10:18am Jun 14, 2012 10:18am
Cable 1hr looking weak to me, but with all this dollar weakness, I'm holding my longs for the moment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable1hr.gif Size: 22 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,182
  • Jun 14, 2012 10:24am Jun 14, 2012 10:24am
Here's my cable 4 hour and why I am favouring longs.
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2012-06-14 at 8.22.21 AM.png Size: 36 KB
Cap
  • #36,183
  • Jun 14, 2012 10:32am Jun 14, 2012 10:32am
Yes, agreed- the 4hr is bullish, and the 4hr should trump the 1hr, but also the 1hr shows the reaction first. I've moved my SL up to 5514 on all my long positions as in my view if we breach that, we could form a lower right shoulder of the H&S on the 4hr-it's worth keeping in mind as we're not out of the woods yet!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,184
  • Jun 14, 2012 10:37am Jun 14, 2012 10:37am
Quoting Trader131
Yes, agreed- the 4hr is bullish, and the 4hr should trump the 1hr, but also the 1hr shows the reaction first. I've moved my SL up to 5514 on all my long positions as in my view if we breach that, we could form a lower right shoulder of the H&S on the 4hr-it's worth keeping in mind as we're not out of the woods yet!
Sounds good to me. We are right on the lower TL on the 15 minute. So this could be the deciding factor if she stays or goes lower. If we can close above 5535 on the 15 minute I will go long.
Cap
  • #36,185
  • Jun 14, 2012 10:39am Jun 14, 2012 10:39am
Yes and this is a USD move, so if euro breaks 1.26 and Aussie breaks parity, cable should fly. Maybe setting up for a long now mmm..

I won't take anymore today (he says!) unless I see something blaringly obvious as I've made more than my quota today- I'll just manage this cable long. I need to go look after my boys. But good luck guys and trade safe! Catch you later.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,186
  • Jun 14, 2012 10:54am Jun 14, 2012 10:54am
With the AU and EU + the US500 near their recent highs I'll bet that we'll range around in this area and then the decision will be made going into the US market close at 4:00 ET. Activity usually picks back up around 2:00 ET.
  • #36,187
  • Jun 14, 2012 1:26pm Jun 14, 2012 1:26pm
I told you I wouldn't be able to resist.. I saw this price here at 19 above the 50sma and at previous lows, close to my SL (14) and thought. OK, yeah, why not- I only need a 5 pip stop, so added in again! I've been getting my boy's ready for bed, and just checked in and bagged another 11 pips on half, leaving the SL at 14
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15min.gif Size: 21 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,188
  • Jun 14, 2012 1:27pm Jun 14, 2012 1:27pm
That's definitely it for today!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,189
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:08pm Jun 14, 2012 2:08pm
Picked up an AU long at 74. We may see a final push toward the highs going into the NY close 1 hr from now.

Attached Image


While I was typing she surged. Took 1/2 off at the previous highs and SL to B/E.
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  • #36,190
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:11pm Jun 14, 2012 2:11pm
Quoting Trader131
I told you I wouldn't be able to resist.. I saw this price here at 19 above the 50sma and at previous lows, close to my SL (14) and thought. OK, yeah, why not- I only need a 5 pip stop, so added in again! I've been getting my boy's ready for bed, and just checked in and bagged another 11 pips on half, leaving the SL at 14
Nice! The white up arrows on your chart look like some advertisement for a trading robot that nails all the right entries!

Nice job on holding your GU position and scaling in and out. As I type she is testing today's highs and will probably push higher up until the NY close.
  • #36,191
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:49pm Jun 14, 2012 2:49pm
Going to be looking for a good opportunity to short the EU at these levels after the NY close. The white line is a major weekly S/R level that's been in play since 2008. We also have the Daily and Weekly R1 Pivots here as well.

Will also look to close out my AU long if she can't break parity...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU2012-06-14_13-46.jpg Size: 164 KB
  • #36,192
  • Jun 14, 2012 3:54pm Jun 14, 2012 3:54pm
Nice trade, Dharma- that trade looks like one of mine!

Taking a quarter off my last cable long here at resistance (I've got so many running, I'm going to lose count!) +42 pips- not bad for a 5 pip stop! Looking at the chart another possible entry would have been on the retest of the upper channel trendline/daily pivot after the break up. I've no idea if there was any news today behind this move- just trading the charts is all you need.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15min1st tp.gif Size: 21 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,193
  • Jun 14, 2012 4:40pm Jun 14, 2012 4:40pm
Ok, I know I had a good day, when everything seemd to click, and they don't always go so well, but I've just been adding up my pips, and I made just over 100 full pips today, about 7% of my account (risking 1% per trade) and have still 1 1/4 positions left open on cable that if I cashed in now would add up to another 54 full pips. What a day- that's just insane! All credit goes to EO and the thread.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,194
  • Jun 14, 2012 5:39pm Jun 14, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting Trader131
Ok, I know I had a good day, when everything seemd to click, and they don't always go so well, but I've just been adding up my pips, and I made just over 100 full pips today, about 7% of my account (risking 1% per trade) and have still 1 1/4 positions left open on cable that if I cashed in now would add up to another 54 full pips. What a day- that's just insane! All credit goes to EO and the thread.
I love it! I think on Monday you cleared almost another 100 full pips. With these type of results I can see how EO / Infinity and others were clearing 1000 a week. Great job!

I managed 48 full pips today but definitely felt like I was "working" for them rather than having them flow to me. I bailed too early on my GU short this morning and on the 2nd half of my AU long this afternoon. A good day though for sure. Green pips.
  • #36,195
  • Jun 15, 2012 1:36am Jun 15, 2012 1:36am
Morning all,
Not much trading time in the next couple of hours, and looking at cable, the 1hr chart has a lot of upper wicks so for safety I'm tightening my stop on yesterday's positions to 29, below the daily pivot and 1hr 62. Be careful today- it's friday and options expiration, and Greek vote at the weekend.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,196
  • Jun 15, 2012 1:36am Jun 15, 2012 1:36am
Well done Dharma! That was a good day!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,197
  • Jun 15, 2012 3:36am Jun 15, 2012 3:36am
Well, that was a big move down in cable. I'm glad I tightened my stop- pip conservation is key and those wicks on the 1hr were a bit of a giveaway really! It's interesting the euro and Aussie are not following suit- it could be a sign of strength.

I got back a few minutes ago and saw this candle close against the 10ma after a big push south, I know we're still above that 4 hr trendline, but it should be good for a few pips anyway, and then maybe if we get a double bottom or higher low on the 15min we can look for longs again. Covered cable +13 pips Sl above 15min high now
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15min.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15min1st tp.gif Size: 20 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,198
  • Jun 15, 2012 3:47am Jun 15, 2012 3:47am
Cutting the rest of that short early for -3pips as, there's definitely strength here
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,199
  • Jun 15, 2012 3:56am Jun 15, 2012 3:56am
Hourly chart on cable's looking bullish again, talk about whipsaw! That could have been a stop hunt move before a big push up, but we'll have to wait and see- For me I can't take a long here without a massive stop. You could short here, but I don't like it, so i'm going to sit it out for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable1hr.gif Size: 24 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,200
  • Jun 15, 2012 4:45am Jun 15, 2012 4:45am
Yesterday EU don't give much opportunity to trade for me, too much volatility means too much risk which I avoid. When trades available it just already too high and near major support. A bit crisis of confidence make me miss many trade, but at least I am not taking any risk.

Now EU is right in the middle of ascending channel and above major support. Look bullish but this could be a lower high, M15 show an inverted hammer but just above major ressistance. Nothing to trade currently. It could be another ranging market with possible drop in NY. Upside limited by monday high which sit exactly at 38.2 fib level, downsinde limited by major support @1.26260. I will be watching closely if there is a sign of distribution.

Possible trade: long signal above support or short under support @1.26260.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: friday eu.gif Size: 23 KB
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