Good morning everyone.
German Bundestag lower house of parliament set to vote ESM fiscal pact last week of June.
German Bundestag lower house of parliament set to vote ESM fiscal pact last week of June.
- #36,981
- Jun 14, 2012 4:59am Jun 14, 2012 4:59am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Don't put all ur eggs in one basket | 3,453 Posts
- #36,982
- Jun 14, 2012 5:02am Jun 14, 2012 5:02am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
can you explain why on earth are you putting so much emphasize on the greek elections ?
So, Syriza wins, what does it mean ? Nothing. Tsipras himself has made loud and clear that the LAST thing anybody wants is Greece out of the euro. Tsipas would be out immediately when shite like that happens.
In fact, if Tsipras-type of young agressive negotiator is getting elected then the possibility is that EU will give them more leeway to meet their obligations and focus more on growth. Why would that be a bad thing ? All other things being equal, wouldn't Syriza win be actually better ? If ND wins then there's less incentive to do some agressive changes meaning that there's little hope for an improved confidence !?
i could easily be wrong on smth here, that's why i ask the fundamental master (fck, technical master, also)
So, Syriza wins, what does it mean ? Nothing. Tsipras himself has made loud and clear that the LAST thing anybody wants is Greece out of the euro. Tsipas would be out immediately when shite like that happens.
In fact, if Tsipras-type of young agressive negotiator is getting elected then the possibility is that EU will give them more leeway to meet their obligations and focus more on growth. Why would that be a bad thing ? All other things being equal, wouldn't Syriza win be actually better ? If ND wins then there's less incentive to do some agressive changes meaning that there's little hope for an improved confidence !?
i could easily be wrong on smth here, that's why i ask the fundamental master (fck, technical master, also)
The best bet for the weekend if you are an intraday trader is to go in flat.
If you are a position or swing trader and you plan on leaving positions open, define the risk, find the risk limit and hedge appropriately. On Sunday, this sucker could open as much as 200 pips either way.
- #36,984
- Jun 14, 2012 5:10am Jun 14, 2012 5:10am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
My heart suggests the right will win in greece. i've seen on news and read the masses remaining are scared and the demonstrational vote last month was just that.
I cannot see the population willing to throw themselves into the abyss for 5-10 years!
( unless the figure out its financially benificial- debt write off by europe > their potential earnings over the period, so net better off position might be out).
hmm.
the indicision..
i might wait till monday. ta
I'm not going to try and predict the outcome. All I am trying to do (as should everybody else) is prepare myself for any one of those 3 possibilities.
If you're a gambler, flip a coin.
If you're a pessimist, short it.
If you're an optimist, long it.
If you're a realist, remain flat or hedge your open positions
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #36,985
- Jun 14, 2012 5:22am Jun 14, 2012 5:22am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Don't put all ur eggs in one basket | 3,453 Posts
- #36,986
- Jun 14, 2012 5:22am Jun 14, 2012 5:22am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
can you explain why on earth are you putting so much emphasize on the greek elections ?
So, Syriza wins, what does it mean ? Nothing. Tsipras himself has made loud and clear that the LAST thing anybody wants is Greece out of the euro. Tsipas would be out immediately when shite like that happens.
In fact, if Tsipras-type of young agressive negotiator is getting elected then the possibility is that EU will give them more leeway to meet their obligations and focus more on growth. Why would that be a bad thing ? All other things being equal, wouldn't...
The market sentiment out there is that Tsipras is going to cause trouble for the bankers and the official lenders if Syriza forms a government. As such, the market will remain short or even go shorter. If ND or PASOK are elected, the banks and official lenders will breathe a sigh of relief and there will be short covering.
The above reasoning fully discounts the fact that Greece would be much better off with Syriza than with ND, but that's not necessarily in their lender's best interests in the short term.
So, considering all the above, if the Euro shorts are covered, it becomes a great opportunity to reload on fresh shorts. However, those who are currently short at lower prices will be stopped out and those who are over-leveraged and short will be wiped out, thereby possibly causing a snowball effect.
Obviously I am still a Euro-Bear. After all we still have a major problem with Spain and Italy is on the radar screen. On top of that, no matter who is elected in Greece, there are still many underlying problems that cannot be fixed in the short term.... not including the problems in Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus. Who's next?
ADD: And this proves my point...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #36,989
- Jun 14, 2012 5:30am Jun 14, 2012 5:30am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
How about following your own advice
FXSwissTrader
Buy the rumor, sell the news!!!!!!!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #36,990
- Jun 14, 2012 5:30am Jun 14, 2012 5:30am
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2012 | 1,121 Posts
alright now, enough of this. let's make a 100 pip run up. Calling Mr. Soros, he'll surely make it happen.
BRB
or not its your choice
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
- #36,991
- Jun 14, 2012 5:35am Jun 14, 2012 5:35am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
The above reasoning fully discounts the fact that Greece would be much better off with Syriza than with ND, but that's not necessarily in their lender's best interests in the short term.
that being said, anything can happen in a fear environment.
- #36,993
- Jun 14, 2012 5:38am Jun 14, 2012 5:38am
Remember there are more than two possible outcomes here. We must consider the implications of another stalemate just like last time, possibly leading to another round of elections.
I'm not going to try and predict the outcome. All I am trying to do (as should everybody else) is prepare myself for any one of those 3 possibilities.
If you're a gambler, flip a coin.
If you're a pessimist, short it.
If you're an optimist, long it.
If you're a realist, remain flat or hedge your open positions
Those are 4...
- #36,995
- Jun 14, 2012 5:42am Jun 14, 2012 5:42am
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2012 | 1,121 Posts
PT took 25% commission.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
such an epic situation on my charts.
I have a 4 hour TF uptrend channel and a 30 minute downtrend channel.
However, we tested the bottom of the chan on 4h TF and it bounced to the top and slightly above the 30m TF channel.
I'm at the edge of my seat, ready to liquidate the full position if this level is rejected by the 30m TF top channel
or willing to liquidate half the position if it stagnates there
OR ready to hold the position and prepare for blastoff
I unloaded half my position.. I figured I will gain a bit on my lifespan as my heart was about to implode
New game plan.. if level is rejected, going short all the way to 1.254ish
update: I feel this bounced off the 30m channel. Took a short.. back to sweats
- #36,997
- Jun 14, 2012 5:47am Jun 14, 2012 5:47am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those are 4...
The possibilities of how to play it are 4
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #36,998
- Jun 14, 2012 5:47am Jun 14, 2012 5:47am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
PT took 25% commission.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #36,999
- Jun 14, 2012 5:49am Jun 14, 2012 5:49am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
I unloaded half my position.. I figured I will gain a bit on my lifespan as my heart was about to implode
New game plan.. if level is rejected, going short all the way to 1.254ish
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #37,000
- Jun 14, 2012 5:50am Jun 14, 2012 5:50am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Sunshine and fresh air time. Please behave while I am gone
http://0.tqn.com/d/exoticcars/1/0/1/...a-top-down.jpg
http://0.tqn.com/d/exoticcars/1/0/1/...a-top-down.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it