Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1804 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #36,061
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:05am Jun 12, 2012 9:05am
Quoting Trader131
Yes, a change could be in the air. I've moved my SL to BE on aussie, not bothered if I'm stopped out, but would love to bag just a few more pips to take my pipcount over 100 for the day
I was going through the posts and it looked like you were bagging quite a few. Nice work!
I need to work on my range trading skills. You bagged quite a few during a nasty range bound session.
  • #36,062
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:07am Jun 12, 2012 9:07am
Thanks, Dharma. I just got stopped out on Aussie. I think it's time to stop. Just shy of 100 full pips though today- about 5% of my account. If only every day were like this...
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,063
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:13am Jun 12, 2012 9:13am
Quoting Trader131
Thanks, Dharma. I just got stopped out on Aussie. I think it's time to stop. Just shy of 100 full pips though today- about 5% of my account. If only every day were like this...
Keep working as hard as you have been and I'll bet that many more days will be like this. Have a good one.
  • #36,064
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:17am Jun 12, 2012 9:17am
Thanks mate
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,065
  • Jun 12, 2012 10:18am Jun 12, 2012 10:18am
Man, Im struggling rly hard, I have days of several winnings only to get wipped on a series of losses, looks like I'm always trying to enter counter-trend on hammers and hangmans...I know I'm new into this and things should come with time, so is there any good advice for a newbie?

Would love to chat over msn or something to try to understand better the analyzes...
  • #36,066
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:55am Jun 12, 2012 11:55am
Quoting ForexForce
Man, Im struggling rly hard, I have days of several winnings only to get wipped on a series of losses, looks like I'm always trying to enter counter-trend on hammers and hangmans...I know I'm new into this and things should come with time, so is there any good advice for a newbie?

Would love to chat over msn or something to try to understand better the analyzes...
Sorry to hear that, Forexforce. The methods in this thread are not easy to begin with. There is so much more to learn than just reading the pdf or even the thread. To start with avoid the CT trade, that should reduce your no. of trades significantly, but also increase your win rate. Set yourself a rule- that you will only trade long above the 15min 50ema and short below for instance (or the 1hr 50 if you prefer). Take the trades away from the ma's, not into them. One step at a time. Also get a simulator, and run it on past data, to build your confidence and improve your eye. There's no substitute for screentime! Try and aim for a 1:1 R/R ratio before your first TP to keep you out of the flakier setups and train you to wait for a better entry. Don't give up without trying this and only trade small until you are more confident. I hope this helps.

I'm happy just posting in the thread, MSN would be too much of a distraction to me, but maybe someone else might want too?
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,067
  • Edited 3:26pm Jun 12, 2012 12:40pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting Trader131
Good luck, Passerby. I've just been stopped out BE on Euro very quickly. I prefer to reenter if I get the right signals, but whatever works for you. We are all different, and have different styles.
Also stopped on BE+3 here on the second trade(the lower one) and I closed the fist one at -2 because I think the profit I will get from the second one will erase the loss on the fist one, but I was wrong. That is one quick reversal, and I go to sleep after closing the first one and moving SL on the second one.

Wrong: But I scalp here and there and got 24.5 pips - (5x0.6 pips for broker commission). Almost 0 pips this week, at least I got back what I lost yesterday.

Should be:But I scalp here and there and got 17.5 pips - (5x0.6 pips for broker commission). Almost 0 pips this week, at least I got back what I lost yesterday.

Reason: I use double lot on the last three scalp, while on dollar amount it looks bigger actually it was only half the pips I got while doubling the broker commission. And I just exit a scalp on AU enter @0.99367 exit @0.99490 with normal lot, another +12 pips from scalping.
  • #36,068
  • Jun 12, 2012 12:43pm Jun 12, 2012 12:43pm
Quoting ForexForce
Man, Im struggling rly hard, I have days of several winnings only to get wipped on a series of losses, looks like I'm always trying to enter counter-trend on hammers and hangmans...I know I'm new into this and things should come with time, so is there any good advice for a newbie?

Would love to chat over msn or something to try to understand better the analyzes...
I also struggling this week. But that is trading, not everyday we have a winning trade. If it was me 6 months ago I would be losing more from taking a revenge trade.

Btw, for me it is easier to take a trade from longer TF. I start to consistently taking pips from trading in H1, it is easier to follow. Maybe because there is loss noise. IMHO, it is easier and safer to trade bigger pips with smaller lot.
  • #36,069
  • Jun 12, 2012 10:54pm Jun 12, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting Passerby
Btw, for me it is easier to take a trade from longer TF. I start to consistently taking pips from trading in H1, it is easier to follow. Maybe because there is loss noise. IMHO, it is easier and safer to trade bigger pips with smaller lot.
Had a tough day today as well. I haven't master trading the range and things just weren't clicking. Tomorrow is another day though and will provide fresh opportunities.

Regarding longer TF trading, if you go back through the thread, EO was really advocating trading the 4H charts but USING the 15M to fine tune the entry. Making sure that you always have the longer term chart in mind when taking trades on the 15M.
  • #36,070
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:25pm Jun 12, 2012 11:25pm
Quoting Trader131
Set yourself a rule- that you will only trade long above the 15min 50ema and short below for instance (or the 1hr 50 if you prefer). Take the trades away from the ma's, not into them.
131 nailed it. This is THE best thing a trader can do using this method to increase win rate. I would recommend anyone new to the thread to stick with this until they are consistently profitable. I have been trading this method (or my own variations of it) for years now, and I still mostly stick to the above rule.

Cheers!
Cap
  • #36,071
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:16am Jun 13, 2012 1:16am
Quoting The Captain
131 nailed it. This is THE best thing a trader can do using this method to increase win rate. I would recommend anyone new to the thread to stick with this until they are consistently profitable. I have been trading this method (or my own variations of it) for years now, and I still mostly stick to the above rule.

Cheers!
Isn't there a small contradiction? Often if price is above 50 ma on hourly, it is below 50 ma on 15 min and vice versa. So if I trade only hourly I have 50% chance to win and the same with 15 min, because higher or lower time frame could be on the other side of 50 ma Or should one wait till price is above or below on multiple time frames?
  • #36,072
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:48am Jun 13, 2012 1:48am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Isn't there a small contradiction? Often if price is above 50 ma on hourly, it is below 50 ma on 15 min and vice versa. So if I trade only hourly I have 50% chance to win and the same with 15 min, because higher or lower time frame could be on the other side of 50 ma Or should one wait till price is above or below on multiple time frames?

Morning all,

It was just a suggestion. If for instance your primary TF you trade is 15 min, then only take long trades above the 1hr 50 ema and short trades below. You could take it further if you want and only say long when above both the 1hr 50and 15min, but that restricts the no of trades even more. I would suggest keeping the rule for just the 15min 50 ma, so you could trade towards the 1hr 50 if the 15min 50 was behind you or for just trade away from the 1hr 50 ema or sma if you trade primarily HTF's- understand? But again it's just a suggestion to try out on simulator and find what works best for you.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,073
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:23am Jun 13, 2012 2:23am
Ok here's something to think about- spot the difference. Daily chart of Euro. Different feeds- mine has a gap. The non gap version shows an inverted hammer- it's not bearish at all!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro_Doesnt_React_to_asExpected_German_Inflation_Data_body_eur.png Size: 250 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurodaily.gif Size: 23 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,074
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:39am Jun 13, 2012 2:39am
"it's not bearish at all" refers to the non gap candle... in case you're thinking "Is he looking at the chart upside down!"
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,075
  • Jun 13, 2012 3:00am Jun 13, 2012 3:00am
Quoting Trader131
Ok here's something to think about- spot the difference. Daily chart of Euro. Different feeds- mine has a gap. The non gap version shows an inverted hammer- it's not bearish at all!
Glad to see that, I have two broker and both with gap. Currently on long, wishing that the H1 could close above previous high so I could move my SL to BE+3. I hope today I could gain decent pips after starving for two days.

Add: Not happening, close it for +12. Hate my broker, they close it 2 pips away from when I close it. And they called it ECN account.

Anyone have experience with FXOpen? look promising. Another candidate I could think of is roboforex, I could withdraw it locally. Other possibilities is Instaforex, but I notice several issues here in my country.
  • #36,076
  • Jun 13, 2012 3:23am Jun 13, 2012 3:23am
Quoting DharmaTrader
Had a tough day today as well. I haven't master trading the range and things just weren't clicking. Tomorrow is another day though and will provide fresh opportunities.

Regarding longer TF trading, if you go back through the thread, EO was really advocating trading the 4H charts but USING the 15M to fine tune the entry. Making sure that you always have the longer term chart in mind when taking trades on the 15M.
I often look at H4 to spot support/demand area, but never actually use it for trading. Longer TF movement is easier as it move way slower, but require longer SL. That mean smaller position. I am risking certain percentage from my equity, the longer the SL I use the smaller the trade.

Btw, regardless of tough PA recently I actually reached a milestone. Thanks to last night trade on Aussie. Just realize that after I take another long on EU just now. Account increased 50% from last time I adjust my trading size, and that mean I should increase my position by 50%.

Reload long @1.25208.
Edit: closed it @1.25225 my terminal keep disconnected. This time I seriously need a new broker.
  • #36,077
  • Jun 13, 2012 3:29am Jun 13, 2012 3:29am
Here's a detailed analysis of a long I'm in on Euro that I've just typed up that fits with the restrictions we were talking about and is away from the ma's.

The 4hr chart was looking good- we had a small bullish pin in the previous candle on my feed. 1hr chart good also- made a higher low and had just poked above the 1hr 62ema. 15min we just had a bullish engulfing candle off the 35/50 ma's. You could have entered off the 35/50 ma's but at that time we had not had a 15 min close above the 1hr62ema. I entered here, at 12, on a pullback to the 5ma after the bullish engulfing candle with SL just under the those ma's and round no.at 95. I knew we had clusters of resistance overhead, but it had been hit many times at the 1hr 62, and now we had a strong close over it, although it still hadn't cleared the pin at the far left of the screen, but my analysis from the HTF's was that a bullish move could be developing. I covered half at the top of that pin I mention, +11 pips, not great, I could have waited in hindsight, but I always like to cover at resistance.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,078
  • Jun 13, 2012 3:30am Jun 13, 2012 3:30am
15min entry and 1st TP chart
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min1st tp.gif Size: 19 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,079
  • Jun 13, 2012 3:31am Jun 13, 2012 3:31am
Now we break the resistance from the far left at 28 and pop up to 37. I missed covering some more here as I was typing, but could theoritically have taken 25 pips or so. Price then falls and closes below the top of that wick at 27. Time to reassess. I was bullish on the HTF's, but when a candle breaks resistance, and you "expect" it to close higher and it doesn't and you "see" it close back under resistance on an HOURLY CANDLE this is important and should not be ignored! In fact it's valid PA for a short. Time to either tighten stops or look to exit, as a reversal could be on the cards. You can always reenter later if there is decent PA. In fact I moved my stop to BE which is just below the 15min 10ma.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15minute.gif Size: 19 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,080
  • Jun 13, 2012 3:32am Jun 13, 2012 3:32am
That last candle closed under the resistance at 28. I won't be happy in this long until we get a 15min close above 28.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
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