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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #36,401
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:06am Jun 13, 2012 2:06am
Quoting D2tz
It's the moment of truth, we're right there at 1.2514 and it is meeting resistance but that may or may not falter. time will tell
So why gamble with the long when there is no low risk signal yet?

Of course you may get lucky and then brag about it but in a long run it will be just a devastation when you coin flip like that.
  • #36,402
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:07am Jun 13, 2012 2:07am
Quoting GoldMan.
Gave you the area yesterday, beginning of the bear wall. Just because PA is up is a weak argument,watch the levels.
Lemme see your chart honey
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #36,403
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:08am Jun 13, 2012 2:08am
Quoting AFXFin
It is fun to speculate EuroZone to break-up, but the fact is that Europe is the most largest economical area in the world by capital and all this crisis is just pushing Europe to more fiscal union. Euro countries are not willing to take a risk of returning to their own currencies unless it is absolutely necessary - that scenario is not realistic yet.

Fact is that once any of the countries decides to go to their own currency they will see a major inflation and economy of that country will be in down for years. None of countries in crisis is not...
All good points

End game IMHO is that Theweaker countries will ultimately have to leave the EU. The ball is firmly in Germanys court though as it has been since the inception of the common currency. As the larger countries(i.e. spain, italy) go into more economic turmoil the burden of debt will become greater and greater on the German economy lessening their competitive advantage and forcing austerity measures across the whole of Europe. The Germans will not stand for this. They cannot piggyback a failing italian bond market for long.
So ultimately I can see the EZ coming out stronger than ever absent the Greeks, spaniards, italians, and protugese. This should all take place by the end of 2015 from a macroeconomic point of view
  • #36,404
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:08am Jun 13, 2012 2:08am
Quoting AFXFin
It is fun to speculate EuroZone to break-up, but the fact is that Europe is the most largest economical area in the world by capital and all this crisis is just pushing Europe to more fiscal union. Euro countries are not willing to take a risk of returning to their own currencies unless it is absolutely necessary - that scenario is not realistic yet.

Fact is that once any of the countries decides to go to their own currency they will see a major inflation and economy of that country will be in down for years. None of countries in crisis is not...
Very well said. This may be the cause of more unity at all levels of government and banking, except neighbourly sentiment amongst the population which seem to dislike eachother and blame eachother.
  • #36,405
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:10am Jun 13, 2012 2:10am
Quoting GoldMan.
So why gamble with the long when there is no low risk signal yet?

Of course you may get lucky and then brag about it but in a long run it will be just a devastation when you coin flip like that.
I already have an early signal to get in which is PA.
  • #36,406
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:11am Jun 13, 2012 2:11am
Quoting D2tz
PA engulfs it all sir. It summarize sentiment and reality at this very moment.
It's the moment of truth, we're right there at 1.2514 and it is meeting resistance but that may or may not falter. time will tell
Sorry it just sounds like you dont know what you are talking about sometimes, no offense, probably because you risk so much of your account combined with you have only 30 posts since December. Beyond 2514 there is immediate resistance, a break of 2514 certainly does not mean breakout. It could easily be a fakeout.

Offers are seen at 20/30 today not 14.

London opening pointing to up is a good sign for bulls though, but you must remember its rare for London to bull. Yes we could see move higher but the risk reward is not there at all unless you longed with a tight stop and your target is 2565 area
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,407
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:11am Jun 13, 2012 2:11am
Immagine what will happen if EU now will broke 1.253x....
  • #36,408
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:11am Jun 13, 2012 2:11am
Quoting AFXFin
Fact is that once any of the countries decides to go to their own currency they will see a major inflation and economy of that country will be in down for years. None of countries in crisis is not realistically considering that unless totally forced by EU and ECB.
.
Greece is already growing quite nicely at -6% per year, I don't think going back to the Drachma could be much worse than indefinite depression

That said, I agree that they (the politicians) don't want to leave, but eventually the austerity might become too much for citizens (overpowering fear of the unknown) and the majority will want out.

At least then there might be some hope for them. As it stands their austerity measures have fallen short of what is necessary and the populace already is close to revolt!
"Don't Panic..."
  • #36,409
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:12am Jun 13, 2012 2:12am
Quoting D2tz
Very well said. This may be the cause of more unity at all levels of government and banking, except neighbourly sentiment amongst the population which seem to dislike eachother and blame eachother.
Another good point..Structural and cultural flaws are really the backbone of whats wrong with creating a common currency across Europe. We are seeing the stresses it places on all the countries therein. I dont feel we will ever see a Eurobond. Germany stands to lose too much if that were to occur. But if for some odd reason it did. Europe may as well change its name to the united states of Europe... and frankly, I dont EVER see that happening in my lifetime
  • #36,410
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:16am Jun 13, 2012 2:16am
Quoting Wulfgar
Strong resistance near 1.2550 area as 1.2502 to 1.2460 area continues to hold as a very strong channel to trade to and from

Game plan for London

1. Let pair go to 1.2535/1.2550 area and reverse – ride down to 1.2502 range and prepare for 1.2460 to be retested
2. Let pair go to 1.2517/1.2530 area reverse and ride down to 1.2502 — 1.2550 is HUGE resistance
3. Entry: Wait for above to happen and SELL 2502 with stops 15-25 pips above the high lookin hard at the 2460 area to see if we get a break and close with momentum or another...

pending sell stop placed at 2502 at least until the 2530 is broken.... If it is Ill reduce leverage and wait till the next reversal zone... I dont mind utilizing a 50+ pip stop because ultimately I see the EU reaching the 2219-2250 area in the very near term..

its just a matter of proper risk management and patience
  • #36,411
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:16am Jun 13, 2012 2:16am
Quoting Wulfgar
Another good point..Structural and cultural flaws are really the backbone of whats wrong with creating a common currency across Europe. We are seeing the stresses it places on all the countries therein. I dont feel we will ever see a Eurobond. Germany stands to lose too much if that were to occur. But if for some odd reason it did. Europe may as well change its name to the united states of Europe... and frankly, I dont EVER see that happening in my lifetime
A whole generation is often enough to see lots of unprecedented events.
The more traumatic the economical or sociological events are, the more it warrants change.
  • #36,412
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:17am Jun 13, 2012 2:17am
Quoting FXMindset
Lemme see your chart honey
H1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1 eu.png Size: 32 KB
  • #36,413
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:17am Jun 13, 2012 2:17am
Quoting Greenspanke
Hi Luis,

Ist it possible this is a 1 2, 1 2 and on the way to 2707 now which is 32.8 for a wave 4 before heading down again for a lower 5? I'm still just learning EW so I'm not sure but thats what it looks like to me.

Appreciate and look forward to your answer.

Green

PS. Best thread in FF guys keep it up.
I dont undestand very well, but if you mean that the move down finished at the last 1.2446. Could be because I am/was expenting a move there before go up. The problem is that I dont like the last wave 5 to 1.2446 from 1.2530 because I only see 3 waves and not 5. Right now we should finish the correction to go down @1.2525 if that wave was not 5.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #36,414
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:18am Jun 13, 2012 2:18am
next stop 2570
  • #36,415
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:19am Jun 13, 2012 2:19am
Quoting D2tz
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DArtWpCU-IE
EUR USD about to board the jet plane
next stop 2570, thanks for boarding the jet plane
  • #36,416
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:19am Jun 13, 2012 2:19am
Quoting D2tz
A whole generation is often enough to see lots of unprecedented events.
The more traumatic the economical or sociological events are, the more it warrants change.
Possibly... But a unification of Europe is something that hasnt happened since Napolean(well almost, gotta go to the roman empire for a better example).... a little more than just a single generation....

but hey who knows?
  • #36,417
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:21am Jun 13, 2012 2:21am
Quoting GoldMan.
H1:
哈我看到，感謝圖表易公頃
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #36,418
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:24am Jun 13, 2012 2:24am
Quoting fxmindset
哈我看到，感謝圖表易公頃
没问题，我的花花公子女孩
  • #36,419
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:24am Jun 13, 2012 2:24am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Greece problem is not austerity - it is mistrust to current parties in power. Once Syriza takes over the throne, they must start austerity anyway. That is a fact that does not change whether they are in Euro or not.

What comes to revolt - that may happen, but it directed to politicians in power - not EU. New leaders will have to rethink their strategy and get back to austerity in order to keep country alive. Country must keep collecting taxes from their citizens in order to cover costs. If they don't have money, they have to save - no matter if there is EU or not.

Currently Greeks are not collecting taxes, by silent acceptance of government, because they are afraid of revolution. What country will survive without taxes? Norway, maybe with their oil income, but Greece is not Norway.
  • #36,420
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:25am Jun 13, 2012 2:25am
Add some short @ 1.2522 on divergence
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
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