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EurAnalysis

  • #36,381
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:30am Jun 13, 2012 1:30am
Orderboard..

Written by Pete Jackson
June 13, 2012 at 06:12 GMT

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2520/30 (ACB’s?) buy stops through 1.2535. tech res 1.2550/55 (1.2551 21 day MA) Bids strong tech support 1.2440/45, sell stops through 1.2435
GBP/USD: Bids 1.5510/20, tech support 1.5475/80, and 1.5450/55. Offers 1.5580/00
EUR/GBP: Tech support 0.8810/15, strong bids 0.7995/00. Tech res 0.8050/55 and 0.8080/85
USD/JPY: Bids 79.00/20, likely stops just below..tech supp 78.70/75 (78.71-200 day MA) sell stops below. Offers 79.70/80 (sovereigns) and 79.95/80.10 buy stops just above. Tech res 80.23 (100 Day MA) and larger buy stops through 80.25.
EUR/JPY: Offers 99.70/80 and 99.90/00, likely buy stops just above. Bids 99.00/10 and 98.70/80
EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/35
USD/CHF: Offers 0.9650/65 and 0.9670/80. Tech supp 0.9595/05 and 0.9560/70 (0.9570 21 day MA)
AUD/USD: Offers 0.9970/80 and 0.9990/00 and 1.0025/30 (1.0028-50% 1.0475/0.9581). Bids 0.9930/405 and 0.9900/10
AUD/JPY: Tech res 79.60 (50% 84.80/74.45) and 80.00, tech supp 77.70/75
AUD/NZD: Tech res 1.2815/20, suggested buy stops through 1.2850
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #36,382
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:30am Jun 13, 2012 1:30am
This market completely confused on what it wants to do, but it seems a short squeeze is in the works today. Who would be going long here and for what reason, I have no idea.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,383
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:34am Jun 13, 2012 1:34am
Once again, Spain still sucks with $100 Billion infusion… Not totally surprised yesterday when the sentiment made a U turn (from positive to negative).

10-year yields in Spain and Italy skyrocketed after initially having fallen drastically. Obvious risk off since these yields are definately well in the red zone

Now Italy’s troubles and the upcoming Greek election are weighing on the currency, and trading has been obviously in a chop. Prolly till June 17th elections


Took an early few shorts during asia for 10-15 ips and price oscillated in an obvious range

Strong resistance near 1.2550 area as 1.2502 to 1.2460 area continues to hold as a very strong channel to trade to and from

Game plan for London

1. Let pair go to 1.2535/1.2550 area and reverse – ride down to 1.2502 range and prepare for 1.2460 to be retested
2. Let pair go to 1.2517/1.2530 area reverse and ride down to 1.2502 — 1.2550 is HUGE resistance
3. Entry: Wait for above to happen and SELL 2502 with stops 15-25 pips above the high lookin hard at the 2460 area to see if we get a break and close with momentum or another bounce... def a key support zone as noted many times earlier






anyways eyes on the newswires as always... lets see how it plays out... frankie already takin up up into the 251X's
  • #36,384
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:35am Jun 13, 2012 1:35am
Quoting BFSGcapital
This market completely confused on what it wants to do, but it seems a short squeeze is in the works today. Who would be going long here and for what reason, I have no idea.
I can't see anybody going long right now. Those who did from 1.2450 area have already taken partial profit and move to BE while those who short have cover up too. And those who short and underwater are also hopeful. Techinically we can go to either way.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #36,385
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:36am Jun 13, 2012 1:36am
Quoting BFSGcapital
This market completely confused on what it wants to do, but it seems a short squeeze is in the works today. Who would be going long here and for what reason, I have no idea.
i'm going long because the currency is going up
two letters: PA
  • #36,386
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:36am Jun 13, 2012 1:36am
Quoting BFSGcapital
This market completely confused on what it wants to do, but it seems a short squeeze is in the works today. Who would be going long here and for what reason, I have no idea.

positive data....
Bull chaser.......Bulldog & Bulldozer.
  • #36,387
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:37am Jun 13, 2012 1:37am
frankie has really only been good for the frankie fake as of late it seems... lets see if it holds true this session
  • #36,388
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:38am Jun 13, 2012 1:38am
Quoting Wulfgar
frankie has really only been good for the frankie fake as of late it seems... lets see if it holds true this session
maybe it's the Brits and Americans being fake and Frankie speaks the truth lol
  • #36,389
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:39am Jun 13, 2012 1:39am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Good morning Boys and Girls,
It is Wacky Wednesday and EURUSD seems to be covering some shorts by ACB. There is some interesting auctions today effecting EURUSD:

8:10 Italy BOT Auction (3- & 12- Month)
8:30 Germany Jun 13Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 Bund

There is also Swedish, US and Swiss auctions, but they don't tend to make any difference on EUR.

About events:
OPEC Summit in Austria
Italy's Monti, Schaeuble at ESMT Business School Event: Berlin at late (around 17:00)

So another boring London Session expected from news, unless someone pops up something from bush - like bankrupt of Bundesbank or similar...
  • #36,390
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:40am Jun 13, 2012 1:40am
Quoting D2tz
maybe it's the Brits and Americans being fake and Frankie speaks the truth lol
possibly bro... but its hard to trade against such a strong downtrend in my book.

frankly Im just not good enough to do it nor am I up for the challenge.... Ill leave that to the more veteren traders... till something major changes to really break some key resistance levels and some serious underlying fundies change in Europe Ill continue to patiently sell what rallies i can
  • #36,391
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:41am Jun 13, 2012 1:41am
Inserted Video

EUR USD about to board the jet plane
  • #36,392
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:46am Jun 13, 2012 1:46am
Quoting Wulfgar
possibly bro... but its hard to trade against such a strong downtrend in my book.

frankly Im just not good enough to do it nor am I up for the challenge.... Ill leave that to the more veteren traders... till something major changes to really break some key resistance levels and some serious underlying fundies change in Europe Ill continue to patiently sell what rallies i can
I understand it's counter trend and not everybody likes to bear risky trades based on PA alone. Fundies are essentially what matters and fundamentally you should not go long at the moment. But the truth of the matter is that news is not the only thing that composes fundies; there's demand as well. The world goes on despite; and people still purchase EUROs to import, travel, etc. It has got to bounce a little and to my eyes, at the moment; it's about to do just that.
  • #36,393
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:48am Jun 13, 2012 1:48am
This little thing can teach us all a lesson
https://corp.wham-o.com/images/produ...perball_07.jpg
  • #36,394
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:48am Jun 13, 2012 1:48am
4h channel rejected price so far
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,395
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:53am Jun 13, 2012 1:53am
Hi,

AU recovered about 90% of the fall from June 11 to June 12, Eu is still at about 30%. There are pressure as obvious on the EU to keep it down. Economy in Japan, Chine and Australia showed to be strong and growing. Their rating are all AAA confirmed by the three major agencies.

I suspect from the last 2 days PA that EU is to be ready to start a BIG move to 1.26x, creating a bull trap and then fall like a stone.

forexBOOM
  • #36,396
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:53am Jun 13, 2012 1:53am
if none of my higher targets are hit first I have a pending short set at 2480...less leverage... still watching the 2460 though for the continuation move
  • #36,397
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:55am Jun 13, 2012 1:55am
Quoting D2tz
i'm going long because the currency is going up
Quoting GoldMan.
....You should be eyeballing 2514. There is no reason to go long yet...just a gamble
Gave you the area yesterday, beginning of the bear wall. Just because PA is up is a weak argument, watch the levels.
  • #36,398
  • Jun 13, 2012 1:57am Jun 13, 2012 1:57am
added some more at 2514 (over bought 1m and 5m +bear divergences on 1m + 2514 + 4hr bull channel resistance) with a stop at 2517 now
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,399
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:03am Jun 13, 2012 2:03am
Quoting GoldMan.
Gave you the area yesterday, beginning of the bear wall. Just because PA is up is a weak argument, watch the levels.
PA engulfs it all sir. It summarize sentiment and reality at this very moment.
It's the moment of truth, we're right there at 1.2514 and it is meeting resistance but that may or may not falter. time will tell
  • #36,400
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:03am Jun 13, 2012 2:03am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
It is fun to speculate EuroZone to break-up, but the fact is that Europe is the most largest economical area in the world by capital and all this crisis is just pushing Europe to more fiscal union. Euro countries are not willing to take a risk of returning to their own currencies unless it is absolutely necessary - that scenario is not realistic yet.

Fact is that once any of the countries decides to go to their own currency they will see a major inflation and economy of that country will be in down for years. None of countries in crisis is not realistically considering that unless totally forced by EU and ECB.

Media is making headlines of that all the time and trying to find any clues of anyone planning such scenarios. It is not media who make decisions. Break of Eurozone will not happen in a day, but it takes more than a year for one country to prepare such operation. We will know that for sure way before any of it happens - they cannot do it overnight.

So as long as none of the countries will officially announce their plans I believe we can count on Eurozone becoming more unified instead of breaking up.
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