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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #36,361
  • Jun 12, 2012 6:08pm Jun 12, 2012 6:08pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay I'm done watching the charts going nowhere. It's like watching grass grow.

Good night.

http://macsystems.com/Jun21-2007.jpg
That's 'cause your watching the wrong type of grass grow...
Attached Image
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #36,362
  • Jun 12, 2012 6:12pm Jun 12, 2012 6:12pm
Quoting Cgb
Beauty of a Head and Shoulders there1 I bet for (b)
Good! The important here is only one goes up, so we should go down first..
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #36,363
  • Jun 12, 2012 6:23pm Jun 12, 2012 6:23pm
Just closed short from 1.25000 for +6 as I'm not comfortable with the formation that seems to be evolving on the hourly and I'm about to go to bed. I'd rather take small profits and trade another day than let it ride up (if I'm right) and hit my stop loss.

Good night all and catch you tomorrow.

Cheers!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #36,364
  • Jun 12, 2012 6:55pm Jun 12, 2012 6:55pm
Quoting Cgb
Just closed short from 1.25000 for +6 as I'm not comfortable with the formation that seems to be evolving on the hourly and I'm about to go to bed. I'd rather take small profits and trade another day than let it ride up (if I'm right) and hit my stop loss.

Good night all and catch you tomorrow.

Cheers!
I added to shorts at 2508

watching the finals game and then ill be on

cheers to you too
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,365
  • Jun 12, 2012 8:20pm Jun 12, 2012 8:20pm
Quoting Cgb
Just closed short from 1.25000 for +6 as I'm not comfortable with the formation that seems to be evolving on the hourly and I'm about to go to bed. I'd rather take small profits and trade another day than let it ride up (if I'm right) and hit my stop loss.

Good night all and catch you tomorrow.

Cheers!
I also noticed that inverted H&S, there is almost H&S in every USD pair. There is also the bigger one in the 4H but it needs to go higher to 1.26 - 1.262 to form the right shoulder. Lets see
  • #36,366
  • Jun 12, 2012 8:57pm Jun 12, 2012 8:57pm
http://www.tradingquarter.com/forex-...nd-prediction/
http://greekleftreview.wordpress.com...-17-june-2012/
http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinves...g-your-moment/
  • #36,367
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:51pm Jun 12, 2012 9:51pm
My outlook is the same as yesterday: its more than 100 pips from anywhere where I would feel safe putting on a position long or short, so not trading.

Failure to head lower suggests possibly a retest of the upper area before a sell off on Friday (just my gamblers hunch, not my plan).
"Don't Panic..."
  • #36,368
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:56pm Jun 12, 2012 9:56pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
Made 1.1% today with 34 little scalps

Exhausted, goodnight all, still holding short from 83, i can't imagine we retest higher again but maybe.....we now have to break up through 4hr bull channel to go back to bullish imo, and thats around 1.25.

Luis and FXMastermind think we go higher which is not comforting to me because they are great traders, but this is small short, 0.5x

good luck
Had a 3% gain yesterday.. But didn't close my positions.. Now regret.. could open short again..
  • #36,369
  • Jun 12, 2012 10:31pm Jun 12, 2012 10:31pm
Quoting Halifax
My outlook is the same as yesterday: its more than 100 pips from anywhere where I would feel safe putting on a position long or short, so not trading.

Failure to head lower suggests possibly a retest of the upper area before a sell off on Friday (just my gamblers hunch, not my plan).
Hey Halifax, good to hear from you. I actually am thinking along the same lines as you. I'm hoping to get short around 1.256-1.258.

We'll just have to see how it plays out during the London & UK session.
  • #36,370
  • Jun 12, 2012 10:37pm Jun 12, 2012 10:37pm
Just thought I would point out we are still below the 4hr bull channel, which comes into play around 2515 now. Inverse H/S on 1hr yes, but that daily candle is just too big. The largest one we have had in the whole down move.

Although 4h bull divergence makes me a bit uncomftorable
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,371
  • Jun 12, 2012 10:38pm Jun 12, 2012 10:38pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hey Halifax, good to hear from you. I actually am thinking along the same lines as you. I'm hoping to get short around 1.256-1.258.

We'll just have to see how it plays out during the London & UK session.
Oh oh, when we all start thinking alike the market will give us a surprise

I like 50% fib retracements which is in that area, but if it doesn't stop there I have a pending up at 2620, but I'm not expecting it to get hit today.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #36,372
  • Jun 12, 2012 10:47pm Jun 12, 2012 10:47pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
Just thought I would point out we are still below the 4hr bull channel, which comes into play around 2515 now. Inverse H/S on 1hr yes, but that daily candle is just too big. The largest one we have had in the whole down move.

Although 4h bull divergence makes me a bit uncomftorable
I know the channel you are talking about, but I find drawing a few different channels gives a totally different perspective.

How about if the channel looks like below?

This might not be the right placement, but you never know which lines everyone is looking at so I look at as many possibilities as I can.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chanel.png Size: 19 KB
"Don't Panic..."
  • #36,373
  • Jun 12, 2012 10:47pm Jun 12, 2012 10:47pm
http://www.forexcrunch.com/3-scenari...eek-elections/

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/right-w...20649#comments

See the comments from a Greek after the story just above.

Don't really want to discuss the merits of it, but am developing a plan to enter a buy stop, topped by a sell limit order perhaps as high as 1.28.

On the other hand: May change mind and do nothing, or place a sell stop order if I haven't already gotten back in selling at a high enough place before Friday, with a tight stop.

Or some combination of the two. This is event risk that affects the entire world.
  • #36,374
  • Jun 12, 2012 10:54pm Jun 12, 2012 10:54pm
Did the same.
I see a H&S developping on USDX as well.
I'd like Euro to go up farther so that I can short it for good

Quoting Cgb
Just closed short from 1.25000 for +6 as I'm not comfortable with the formation that seems to be evolving on the hourly and I'm about to go to bed. I'd rather take small profits and trade another day than let it ride up (if I'm right) and hit my stop loss.

Good night all and catch you tomorrow.

Cheers!
  • #36,375
  • Jun 12, 2012 10:59pm Jun 12, 2012 10:59pm
Quoting Halifax
I know the channel you are talking about, but I find drawing a few different channels gives a totally different perspective.

How about if the channel looks like below?

This might not be the right placement, but you never know which lines everyone is looking at so I look at as many possibilities as I can.

Attachment
I also have that line drawn. My chart is seriously hard to look at on a larger time frame, but I can understand it easily since I look at it so much.

But just look at all of that resistance above our current area, if you can without going blind
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchartttt.jpg Size: 268 KB
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,376
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:04pm Jun 12, 2012 11:04pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
I also have that line drawn. My chart is seriously hard to look at on a larger time frame, but I can understand it easily since I look at it so much.

But just look at all of that resistance above our current area, if you can without going blind

WOW! That chart is epic

Yes, shorts are quite likely, but I won't go short here so I have to look north for a nice place and hope others think likewise. That's no guarantee we won't just drop on the London open though
"Don't Panic..."
  • #36,377
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:06pm Jun 12, 2012 11:06pm
Quoting Halifax
WOW! That chart is epic

Yes, shorts are quite likely, but I won't go short here so I have to look north for a nice place and hope others think likewise. That's no guarantee we won't just drop on the London open though
Yes which is why I still have very small shorts in place, because im very indecisive in the short term here but still biased towards down (technically not just fundamentally).
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,378
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:10pm Jun 12, 2012 11:10pm
Interesting scenario, based on positive-hopium version of Greek elections

Euro Not Going to Fall Off A Cliff Just Yet; Risks for Push Towards 1.3000
  • #36,379
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:10pm Jun 12, 2012 11:10pm
Also we have had two days of terrible range, so hopefully we break out or break down today,
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,380
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:21pm Jun 12, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Good! The important here is only one goes up, so we should go down first..
Hi Luis,

Ist it possible this is a 1 2, 1 2 and on the way to 2707 now which is 32.8 for a wave 4 before heading down again for a lower 5? I'm still just learning EW so I'm not sure but thats what it looks like to me.

Appreciate and look forward to your answer.

Green

PS. Best thread in FF guys keep it up.
I read and watch to learn.
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