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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #36,161
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:31am Jun 12, 2012 9:31am
Quoting legenday
anyone thinks bottom of day. Should we go Long now?
You like swimming up sh#t creek without a paddle?
  • #36,162
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:34am Jun 12, 2012 9:34am
This is what I'm now watching... Confluence of the hourly up trend, Friday's low, my Hourly down trend (red line) and Daily down trend channel (blue line).

I think this will be the area we close at today. Near the 1.24086 levels (which is where I've placed my second TP level for the remainder of these two shorts).

1H Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #36,163
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:35am Jun 12, 2012 9:35am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
If I had to choose an order it would be

1. Spain
2. Italy
3. Any others
4. Greece

Greece will not leave a union that gives them all the money they could ever want... for free, coz they'll never be able to pay it back
Cannot see reason for any of the countries in crisis leave Euro voluntarily. Unless they are too deep in order to maintain their economy using own currency... I think Italy is only one who has a reasonable chance to do that.
  • #36,164
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:36am Jun 12, 2012 9:36am
I see daily s1 (1.2402) as a definite possibility today, unless we retrace from here yet again...
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,165
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:37am Jun 12, 2012 9:37am
Quoting Cgb
This is what I'm now watching... Confluence of the hourly up trend, Friday's low, my Hourly down trend (red line) and Daily down trend channel (blue line).

I think this will be the area we close at today. Near the 1.24086 levels (which is where I've placed my second TP level for the remainder of these two shorts).

1H Chart
1.2450 proves to be a biatch again today. 1.2410/20 area is my target.
  • #36,166
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:37am Jun 12, 2012 9:37am
Quoting Cgb
Hmm, what about France?

As you've pointed out, I think Greece will complain that Spain got bailout money without having to put up any austherity measures to please Germany. If Spain has already received some of the bailout funds, I don't think they will be the first to go. This puts Greece as first choice. However, France is getting mighty pissed and their are in better shape. What are the chances of France leave the Euro while they are still viewed as having a decent ecomony. This would protect more the value of the new French currency....
Well, let's think about this logically.
If France depends on the rest of Europe for its export trade, would they really want a stronger currency than that of their trading partners? I hardly think so.

So while France may leave because they are pissed off, they certainly will not leave because it is in their economic interest.

The Euro needs to devalue. The only country that would hurt from a lower valued Euro is Germany, but only because it would cause more inflation than they are comfortable with. Remember Germany is very very inflation averse.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #36,167
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:37am Jun 12, 2012 9:37am
Spanish 10y dropping back from 6.82 to 6.77, Italian also recently lower ...maybe ECB helping out here? ...Also, Dollar & Gold were both rising positively together ...any thoughts on that anyone?
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #36,168
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:37am Jun 12, 2012 9:37am
if there would be a tradable retracement, i could enter a short position.
but surely not at the current price.
.:: your stop loss is another trader's first target ::.
  • #36,169
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:39am Jun 12, 2012 9:39am
Quoting AFXFin
Cannot see reason for any of the countries in crisis leave Euro voluntarily. Unless they are too deep in order to maintain their economy using own currency... I think Italy is only one who has a reasonable chance to do that.
My thinking is similar, especially considering that 71% of the population are not happy with the Euro.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #36,170
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:40am Jun 12, 2012 9:40am
Quoting mk77ch
if there would be a tradable retracement, i could enter a short position.
but surely not at the current price.
Otherwise I think we should enter a long position.
  • #36,171
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:42am Jun 12, 2012 9:42am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
1.2450 proves to be a biatch again today. 1.2410/20 area is my target.
Don't worry. Even a biatch is eventually put in her place by an even bigger biatch

http://www.motifake.com/image/demoti...1265288379.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #36,172
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:45am Jun 12, 2012 9:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well, let's think about this logically.
If France depends on the rest of Europe for its export trade, would they really want a stronger currency than that of their trading partners? I hardly think so.

So while France may leave because they are pissed off, they certainly will not leave because it is in their economic interest.

The Euro needs to devalue. The only country that would hurt from a lower valued Euro is Germany, but only because it would cause more inflation than they are comfortable with. [b]Remember Germany is very very inflation...
Weimar Republic.
  • #36,173
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:46am Jun 12, 2012 9:46am
Ok, just for fun, as I didnt do any proper calculations.

1.24059

+ You have lead me to question, while I was trying to tell who will exit first:

When will costs of socialistic european system exceed surplus from open market?

I think all the PIIGS are in such a bad shape, that in fact they will be unable to survive outside of EU. Therefore I vote for no exit, two speed Europe, smaller EMU core.

Edit: Ah, voting was for EZ quit: So thats quite longer question:
First of all, noone will voluntarily quit. If you are in totall mess like PIIGS are, and the only thing which is holding you above water are EU taxpayers, you are not going to give up this advantege. Maybe if you are totally stupid. So I think there will be two speed Europe, but after major crash of banking system and the Euro. And thats quite far away now as can kickers rule tese days. I promise you LTRO10.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #36,174
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:47am Jun 12, 2012 9:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well, let's think about this logically.
If France depends on the rest of Europe for its export trade, would they really want a stronger currency than that of their trading partners? I hardly think so.

So while France may leave because they are pissed off, they certainly will not leave because it is in their economic interest.

The Euro needs to devalue. The only country that would hurt from a lower valued Euro is Germany, but only because it would cause more inflation than they are comfortable with. Remember [b]Germany is very very...
1) I thought I was!
2) You're right, they would want a weaker currency than their partners. If they leave now their currency would be set at a lower rate (I think) than the Euro, giving them a weaker currency.
3) Agreed.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #36,175
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:54am Jun 12, 2012 9:54am
hee hee....


Quoting PipTrapper
Don't worry. Even a biatch is eventually put in her place by an even bigger biatch

http://www.motifake.com/image/demoti...1265288379.jpg
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #36,176
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:54am Jun 12, 2012 9:54am
Quoting Wulfgar
hard to buy this trending market... nice rejection at the 2520... will short on a break and close under 2500 on the 15 min with a lil momentum.... stops 15 pips above todays high

Still targeting 2219-2250 area with these shorts..




Trade engaged..... rock and roll


on that note Im goin to bed and lettin this thing play out... nite guys
mornin guys... just woke up and im sittin on 40 pips green so far... smallish ranging day today... but the downtrend is still intact and we have made a LL today.... Leaving the trade open targeting the same area... May add more short depending on FA and the Daily roll.
  • #36,177
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:55am Jun 12, 2012 9:55am
http://jimmytheifa.files.wordpress.c..._and_bears.jpg
comeon bear ! show us number 12 and end this fight !
  • #36,178
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:56am Jun 12, 2012 9:56am
Hey guys, busy today. Still the correction is on from 1.228...Still bull

Right now my target is 1.243 then I will you at (1.278/1.288)

Until now I dont see any EW count to get down!

See you in a while
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #36,179
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:58am Jun 12, 2012 9:58am
Hello peeps! I have not been posting but been trading here and there as I went to Pinehurst for golf for awhile and am practicing up for Tournament ahead! I have been out of town every weekend for month and half doing stuff and it has been hectic playing catch-up! SOOO, you have been missed!

Anyway, No one will leave EZ. Germany needs other countries to buy their products at a lower currency rate as their goods would be unaffordable with a strong Deutschemark vs. Drachma,Lire,Franc. Troubled countries need all the free money that they won't have to pay back as the politicians will keep kicking can down the road and the banks will keep drinking the Kool-aid.

Anyhow, IMO, a close below 1.2450 would help this thing down the ladder a bit.
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  • #36,180
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:59am Jun 12, 2012 9:59am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Hey guys, busy today. Still the correction is on from 1.228...Still bull

Right now my target is 1.243 then I will you at (1.278/1.288)

Until now I dont see any EW count to get down!

See you in a while
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