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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #35,701
  • Jun 11, 2012 1:50pm Jun 11, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting Skynet
we will see who is right, wont we?

my levels are long at 1.2489.....i will expect the bounce to go as far as 1.2540ish.

best of luck to you.
Everything is possible nowadays they say
You obviously have your reasons for that call, I have mine, nothing wrong about that, no need prove anyone wrong on here, just sticking to my views.
Whatever the outcome shall be, stay positive

cheers mate
  • #35,702
  • Jun 11, 2012 1:51pm Jun 11, 2012 1:51pm
If you didn't noticed..

EURUSD H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,703
  • Jun 11, 2012 2:08pm Jun 11, 2012 2:08pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Mr. Fushikawa. I am still long until break 1.2440
Hi Luis,

u got the same same wave count as i expect it to be, but only thing i m wondering is why have you got "w" wave at the bottom of long term impulse at 2287, impluse waves shd end with 3rd or 5th..
  • #35,704
  • Jun 11, 2012 2:39pm Jun 11, 2012 2:39pm
Quoting Skynet
sorry, dude. i have to disagree to some extent: i expect some short covering-- a bounce from 1.2489 area up to at least 1.2547 minimum. after that i dont know. yes, i expect short covering as stated here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post5748035

.
We're all entitled to an opinion. You have yours and I have mine. In the end, the market is always right. So I agree that we disagree

So far the only significant event I see on the horizon is the Greek election, and now even the PASOK party is sounding the bailout renegotiation siren. Things are about to get nastier and the smart traders know it.

A little hint to you, and to everybody else reading this...

Keep a close eye on the daily 8 period ema. As long as price stays below it, just sell any retrace to it until some talking head from Europe ruins the party.

ADD: My apologies. I thought you typed 1.2647. I must have misread it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #35,705
  • Jun 11, 2012 2:41pm Jun 11, 2012 2:41pm
Quoting neuron

DXY reached 23.6% and closed the gap




with Italian bond yields up I think we got more room upwards on dxy (down euro) as long as the FOMC doesnt drop any bombs


VIX up to 22.40 from 21.65



.

Dan where do you think the VIX going to move now?
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,706
  • Jun 11, 2012 2:45pm Jun 11, 2012 2:45pm
Quoting drzakir123
i am long now target 1.2750 and 1.2825
Perhaps you should wait until after the Greek elections.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #35,707
  • Jun 11, 2012 2:48pm Jun 11, 2012 2:48pm
Quoting drzakir123
i am long now target 1.2750 and 1.2825
Great Doc go for it!
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,708
  • Jun 11, 2012 2:49pm Jun 11, 2012 2:49pm
Quoting PipTrapper
We're all entitled to an opinion. You have yours and I have mine. In the end, the market is always right. So I agree that we disagree

So far the only significant event I see on the horizon is the Greek election, and now even the PASOK party is sounding the bailout renegotiation siren. Things are about to get nastier and the smart traders know it.

A little hint to you, and to everybody else reading this...

Keep a close eye on the daily 8 period ema. As long as price stays below it, just sell any retrace to it until some talking head...
I definitely use the 8 EMA on the daily, and also find price to bounce really well off the 20sma while sloping on the 15min TF as well. Great for scalping or re-entering the market.
  • #35,709
  • Jun 11, 2012 2:49pm Jun 11, 2012 2:49pm
Quoting Skynet
we will see who is right, wont we?

my levels are long at 1.2489.....i will expect the bounce to go as far as 1.2540ish.

best of luck to you.
I said that because maybe I could get in at 1.246 Looking other high Up 1.267
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,710
  • Jun 11, 2012 2:51pm Jun 11, 2012 2:51pm
Quoting BrunargarFx
At least give yourself a chance not to be stopped out.
If I was long I would put my SL below 1.243.
Ty man!
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,711
  • Jun 11, 2012 2:57pm Jun 11, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting harora
Hi Luis,

u got the same same wave count as i expect it to be, but only thing i m wondering is why have you got "w" wave at the bottom of long term impulse at 2287, impluse waves shd end with 3rd or 5th..
Hi Harora, thats why for me all this is a correction from 2002 low I guess to 2008 highs, so for me all is a big correction. Furthermore, I dont like the 1,2,3,4,5 from 1.328 may 1st. The 1-2 I dont like because the 2 didnt reach at least 50%. I always look at least 50%, but there is not a rule...
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,712
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:18pm Jun 11, 2012 3:18pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Dan where do you think the VIX going to move now?
Can't say I have much experience forecasting the VIX but from a fundamental standpoint, With the Greece elections around the corner and Italy's problems slowly coming into the spotlight I think we're headed up

The vix was in the 30's during August 2011-October 2011 spiking into the 40's during the peak of Greece crisis

Currently up to 24.50
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  • #35,713
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:23pm Jun 11, 2012 3:23pm
Quoting neuron
Can't say I have much experience forecasting the VIX but from a fundamental standpoint, With the Greece elections around the corner and Italy's problems slowly coming into the spotlight I think we're headed up

The vix was in the 30's during August 2011-October 2011 during the peak of Greece crisis

Currently up to 24.50
My either, but tecnically,
Attached Image
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,714
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:25pm Jun 11, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting neuron
Can't say I have much experience forecasting the VIX but from a fundamental standpoint, With the Greece elections around the corner and Italy's problems slowly coming into the spotlight I think we're headed up

The vix was in the 30's during August 2011-October 2011 during the peak of Greece crisis

Currently up to 24.50
Under Greek law, no polling results are allowed for two weeks before the elections. However, Greece is not exactly compliant so expect some info to be leaked out. If it appears that Syriza is in the lead, sell everything.... including your grandmother's gold necklace.

Anyway my point is that with so much at stake, I expect the VIX to climb back up to the high twenties / low thirties.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #35,715
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:27pm Jun 11, 2012 3:27pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
My either, but tecnically,
I'm not sure you can apply EW counts to the VIX
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #35,716
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:37pm Jun 11, 2012 3:37pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm not sure you can apply EW counts to the VIX
My either, but it is psico tool so... EW is defined as how people feelings move the market, why not VIX?
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,717
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:46pm Jun 11, 2012 3:46pm
Looks like I missed a fun day. I'm sure there are some happy and not so happy campers outs there with the gap up and then the nice drop.

I for one am happy and not . I took a long before the market closed on Friday at 1.2490 with a TP at 1.2525 and a tight stop loss. When the markets opened Sunday night at 1.26362 they closed my position at 1.2525 *NOT* the opening price! I'm pissed and will complain to them. It wasn't a large position but still, they owe me 111 points more.

Anyways, got some reading to catch up...
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #35,718
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:46pm Jun 11, 2012 3:46pm
Not good, Sweden lost. Congrats Ukraine on a well played match. I guess we now have to beat England and France. Hmm not likely.

Edit: Maybe I should cheer for Greece instead?
  • #35,719
  • Jun 11, 2012 4:04pm Jun 11, 2012 4:04pm
Sverige are more than capable of beating England. We have to agree though, luck was not on your side this evening, but looking at chances you've created one could take positive notes regarding performance overall.
  • #35,720
  • Jun 11, 2012 4:04pm Jun 11, 2012 4:04pm
Uptrend lower channel broken. I have us hitting at least 1.2450 target in the mediate.
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