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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #35,981
  • Jun 11, 2012 7:42am Jun 11, 2012 7:42am
Taking half off here +15
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,982
  • Jun 11, 2012 7:56am Jun 11, 2012 7:56am
Quoting Trader131
Welcome to the thread, Passerby!

I've been buying the bottom of this bull flag that is still holding (just!). First entry was at 1.2598 after the small 15min hammer, took profit at 14 pips and was then stopped at BE. Second entry I've just taken in the wick of that hammer again at 95 after the last bar failed to close below the low of the wick and the bottom of the flag.

We may carry on drifting lower in this flag, so shorting at the top could also be a valid trade, but with the longs I have round no. support although that could soon become...
131,

As usual, this is easy to state in hindsight but I'd like to comment on this trade... It's a testament to your trading that you got positive pips.

What I wanted to point out is that the EU had been in a range pretty much since the open and then it broke very strongly to the downside through a major daily support level (white line on my chart). It then retraced back up to test this level (coinciding with the 15M 10EMA) and failed to close back above. The next 15M candle was a DBHLC and it also failed to go above the wick of the previous candle that tested the 10EMA. This was a sign that the downward break would hold and would have been a nice place to short.
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  • #35,983
  • Jun 11, 2012 7:57am Jun 11, 2012 7:57am
Only 4 minutes to go until this hourly close, but it's looking promising for longs
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,984
  • Jun 11, 2012 7:59am Jun 11, 2012 7:59am
Quoting Trader131
Taking half off here +15
Nice, we took 1/2 off at the same point. It's back above the 15M 10/50 EMAs so if we can get through the 35 SMA I'd be looking for a retest of the 80 level.
  • #35,985
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:11am Jun 11, 2012 8:11am
Took another 1/4 off here. May add back on if we get a retracement back to the 10/50 EMAs and some good PA. My target for the remaining 1/4 is up at 5596.

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  • #35,986
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:14am Jun 11, 2012 8:14am
Quoting DharmaTrader
Took another 1/4 off here. May add back on if we get a retracement back to the 10/50 EMAs and some good PA. My target for the remaining 1/4 is up at 5596.

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Snap! Taken 1/4 off at 65.


Dharma- I take your point, and that would have been a great place to short. With that trade, you're right- I could have benefited from paying more attention to the HTF's SR (I even had that white line on my chart!), but it was more of a 15min play within a flag (I try to get the best entries so that I can take profits and get to BE quickly- it keeps me out of trouble!). Thanks for the feedback though- it's good to question ourselves and examine our reasons for taking a trade
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,987
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:16am Jun 11, 2012 8:16am
Quoting Passerby
Got in on GU, after the second inverted hammer on M15.
Stopped at BE+2, but my order closed around BE+1.5. Minus 20.5 pips so far, minus 1.93% on my equity. Waiting for EU candle colsed on M15, PE on GU a bit unclear to my eyes. EU is much better, I think. But I might load another short if she goes to 1.5575 and only if I got confirmation there.

Add: Third attempt, short on EU. No TP in sight so far but I have my eyes on friday close around 2518.
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  • #35,988
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:19am Jun 11, 2012 8:19am
Keeping an eye on a possible shampoo on the GU 15M...

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  • #35,989
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:24am Jun 11, 2012 8:24am
Quoting Passerby
Stopped at BE+2, but my order closed around BE+1.5. Minus 20.5 pips so far, minus 1.93% on my equity. Waiting for EU candle colsed on M15, PE on GU a bit unclear to my eyes. EU is much better, I think. But I might load another short if she goes to 1.5575 and only if I got confirmation there.
Nice job getting to B/E. When I saw that hammer with the long wick that failed to go below the previous lows, I started looking for longs. I usually don't trade the GU but it looked much clearer to me than the EU/AU in this case.
  • #35,990
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:28am Jun 11, 2012 8:28am
Quoting Passerby
Stopped at BE+2, but my order closed around BE+1.5. Minus 20.5 pips so far, minus 1.93% on my equity. Waiting for EU candle colsed on M15, PE on GU a bit unclear to my eyes. EU is much better, I think. But I might load another short if she goes to 1.5575 and only if I got confirmation there.
You know it's funny how two people can see things very differently (but both can be valid!).

I was just thinking that for me, PA on cable has been clearer than EU this morning. I was watching EU around the 1252X area as I said, for a reversal, and yes, we got a 40 pip bounce, but I couldn't see any decent PA for an entry, so missed it- whereas on GU we had a retrace to the 1552X area, price held , failed to make a lower low, looked to be double bottoming, and gave us an inverted hammer- Easy, low risk entry with clear (to me anyway) PA.
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,991
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:30am Jun 11, 2012 8:30am
Closed out my remaining 1/4 here for +21 on the entire trade.

Going to wait to see how the NY open looks. Shampoo still potentially in play...

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  • #35,992
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:31am Jun 11, 2012 8:31am
Quoting DharmaTrader
Nice job getting to B/E. When I saw that hammer with the long wick that failed to go below the previous lows, I started looking for longs. I usually don't trade the GU but it looked much clearer to me than the EU/AU in this case.
I move my stop after I think there is a confirmed break on the next S/R. In fact I was wrong this time, but turn to be a good decision. There might be another chance for short on GU, I still haven't move my stop on EU and most likely I will missed this one.
  • #35,993
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:33am Jun 11, 2012 8:33am
Quoting DharmaTrader
Closed out my remaining 1/4 here for +21 on the entire trade.

Going to wait to see how the NY open looks. Shampoo still potentially in play...

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Well managed, Dharma. I'm happy to leave on my last 1/4 for the moment based on the 1hr chart (although I do anticipate another dip on the 15min) SL below lows at 19 (-7pips)
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,994
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:34am Jun 11, 2012 8:34am
Quoting DharmaTrader
Closed out my remaining 1/4 here for +21 on the entire trade.

Going to wait to see how the NY open looks. Shampoo still potentially in play...

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Nice trade there. I am still shocked when it hit my SL, still try to re-asses the situation. Ah.. missed that one on GU.
  • #35,995
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:35am Jun 11, 2012 8:35am
Quoting Trader131
You know it's funny how two people can see things very differently (but both can be valid!).

I was just thinking that for me, PA on cable has been clearer than EU this morning. I was watching EU around the 1252X area as I said, for a reversal, and yes, we got a 40 pip bounce, but I couldn't see any decent PA for an entry, so missed it- whereas on GU we had a retrace to the 1552X area, price held , failed to make a lower low, looked to be double bottoming, and gave us an inverted hammer- Easy, low risk entry with clear (to me anyway) PA....
I hope I could learn to trade cable from you, PA is a mess in my eyes on her earlier today.
  • #35,996
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:37am Jun 11, 2012 8:37am
May have missed a nice short on the AU. 15M failed to close above the 50 on a sort of a pinbar and then a small hangman. Time will tell...

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  • #35,997
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:41am Jun 11, 2012 8:41am
Yes, but better to be careful around the US open- we're just filling the gap on the US500 on my charts, so may pop back up quickly
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,998
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:42am Jun 11, 2012 8:42am
GU is currently holding at the 15M 50 EMA. If it dead end closes here it could be an opportunity to get back in long...
  • #35,999
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:44am Jun 11, 2012 8:44am
Quoting Trader131
Yes, but better to be careful around the US open- we're just filling the gap on the US500 on my charts, so may pop back up quickly
Yeah, too late on that short but an entry after that hangman would have yielded a nice 10 with the remainder at B/E.

Also watching the S&P500 and it looking to close below its recent lows on the 15M.
  • #36,000
  • Jun 11, 2012 9:03am Jun 11, 2012 9:03am
Again stopped on BE+3 on EU, minus 19.5 pips so far. I think I will be staying on the sidelines, I fell a bit dull today. Green pips to all of you who still hunting for more.
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