Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1799 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #35,961
  • Edited 10:51am Jun 8, 2012 6:09am | Edited 10:51am
Bullish engulfing on 1 hr (almost did not quite engulf).

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Inverted hammer on 15 min was my trigger for long.

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Was off of a 4 hr trend line, and could be making the right shoulder of a small inverted head and shoulders on the 15 min. Bought at 5425
EDIT: Closed +12, tired of waiting on it to go up any further, time to start the weekend.
  • #35,962
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:37pm Jun 10, 2012 3:37pm
Hello everyone, I have read the 1st few pages and the attached document in post #1. Looks like I trade a similar setup(PA mostly those hammer or based on tails), but I do not use any MA but use trend lines, supply & demand level, and volume on H1 or M15 with confirmation on lower TF. Not taking any trade with TP:SL under 1:1, move to be+spreads+commission after 1st S/R level breached. I trade mainly in EU or sometimes gold or rarely on GU.

I trade forex starting december last year, so I am still a newbie here. Before that I trade stock since early 2009. Quit my full time job at the same year(only last 1.5 year as equity analyst) and took graduate study, still not graduated on 6th semester because I focus more on trading.


Looks like the discussion flow here is quite good and educational. If any of you do not mind, I would like to join the discussion. Maybe we could share some ideas and correct each other decision. Well, trading alone is boring and lonesome. My 1st language is not English, pardon me for any misspelling or weird word selection.

I attached some of my entries, took it from my post on another forum. A bit outdated but I hope it will gave some insight the way I trade.

If it is okay, I will join this thread starting tomorrow. Btw, this month I have an outstanding start with no SL behind entry was breached, lucky me. Many ended in BE+spread+commission after running for more than 30 pips, but I think I could handle that. Last month I was being hitted hard on gold, erased almost 20% of my monthly gain in a week. This is my formal intro, looking to join the discussion. Thx before.
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  • #35,963
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:01pm Jun 10, 2012 5:01pm
Looking at a possible AU short here.

 

  1. Gapped up to the previous 4H high from last week.
  2. Right at the 1.0000 parity round number
  3. At Daily R2 Pivot
  4. At 4H 200SMA
  5. DBHLC forming on the 15M

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  • #35,964
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:15pm Jun 10, 2012 5:15pm
Got a nice pin on the 1H. Shorted up the wick of the pin at 95 with stop above the pin. Also, the 5M is showing a doji.

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  • #35,965
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:30pm Jun 10, 2012 5:30pm
Had just moved stops to B/E and got taken out on this candle. Probably should have taken some off earlier and then kept my overall stop at B/E.

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  • #35,966
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:51pm Jun 10, 2012 6:51pm
Quoting Passerby
Hello everyone, I have read the 1st few pages and the attached document in post #1. Looks like I trade a similar setup(PA mostly those hammer or based on tails), but I do not use any MA but use trend lines, supply & demand level, and volume on H1 or M15 with confirmation on lower TF. Not taking any trade with TP:SL under 1:1, move to be+spreads+commission after 1st S/R level breached. I trade mainly in EU or sometimes gold or rarely on GU.

I trade forex starting december last year, so I am still a newbie here. Before that I trade stock since early...
Passerby,

Good to have you, welcome to the thread. I've only been posting here for about 2-3 weeks. I've found there to be some good discussion and useful input on trades. I'm also in the process of going back through the thread from the beginning and looking at the historical data for that time to really get a feel for how EO and the other stars traded.

I usually trade the Sunday open and the early US session while others here mainly trade the London session. Looking forward to your involvement in the discussion.
  • #35,967
  • Jun 11, 2012 2:40am Jun 11, 2012 2:40am
Morning Guys, hope you all had a good weekend!

Big news over the weekend with the Spanish banks. I'm looking to see if she can hold this rally
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,968
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:43am Jun 11, 2012 3:43am
Quoting DharmaTrader
Passerby,

Good to have you, welcome to the thread. I've only been posting here for about 2-3 weeks. I've found there to be some good discussion and useful input on trades. I'm also in the process of going back through the thread from the beginning and looking at the historical data for that time to really get a feel for how EO and the other stars traded.

I usually trade the Sunday open and the early US session while others here mainly trade the London session. Looking forward to your involvement in the discussion.
Thanks, I usually trade around this hour and till London market closed. Actually, I am an hour late today.

Quoting Trader131
Morning Guys, hope you all had a good weekend!

Big news over the weekend with the Spanish banks. I'm looking to see if she can hold this rally
Morning, I also surprised to see big gap over the weekend. Not taking too much attention to the market as I am a bit busy with my thesis over the weekend.

I still got nothing worth to trade on EU, got a decent demand rejection on H1 and M15 but there is still somewhere around 1.257 level to test as a lower channel.

Just as I write this, price retrace back around the hammer on M15 around 1.26 this might develop to something. Volume on the 12th min of M15 candle is already exceed the previous candle. I think I got an initial reaction here, just need to see how the current candle closed.
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  • #35,969
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:58am Jun 11, 2012 3:58am
In, the reaction to demand around 1.260 is stronger than reaction to supply around 1.262. The same demand also appear when price revisit 1.26.

Actually the lower trend line still pose a threat to my entries this time as usually it act like a price magnet.

Set 1.2715 as TP, but this is just coarse measurement. Maybe I need to adjust it, but I need my coffee first.
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  • #35,970
  • Jun 11, 2012 4:07am Jun 11, 2012 4:07am
Welcome to the thread, Passerby!

I've been buying the bottom of this bull flag that is still holding (just!). First entry was at 1.2598 after the small 15min hammer, took profit at 14 pips and was then stopped at BE. Second entry I've just taken in the wick of that hammer again at 95 after the last bar failed to close below the low of the wick and the bottom of the flag.

We may carry on drifting lower in this flag, so shorting at the top could also be a valid trade, but with the longs I have round no. support although that could soon become resistance if we go much lower
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,971
  • Jun 11, 2012 4:37am Jun 11, 2012 4:37am
Closing at BE as it's taking too long-I could have grabbed 11 pips but held out for more, but going nowhere now
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,972
  • Jun 11, 2012 4:51am Jun 11, 2012 4:51am
Quoting Trader131
Welcome to the thread, Passerby!

I've been buying the bottom of this bull flag that is still holding (just!). First entry was at 1.2598 after the small 15min hammer, took profit at 14 pips and was then stopped at BE. Second entry I've just taken in the wick of that hammer again at 95 after the last bar failed to close below the low of the wick and the bottom of the flag.

We may carry on drifting lower in this flag, so shorting at the top could also be a valid trade, but with the longs I have round no. support although that could soon become...
Thank you, I missed that there is a possibility of a flag there. Got a chance to close after few pips but I was on my way to a coffee shop. When I open my terminal just now, my trade is gone. My first loss this month, minus 20 pips.

This is why I need to join a discussion, I need another view if there is something I overlook.
  • #35,973
  • Jun 11, 2012 5:16am Jun 11, 2012 5:16am
Quoting Passerby
Thank you, I missed that there is a possibility of a flag there. Got a chance to close after few pips but I was on my way to a coffee shop. When I open my terminal just now, my trade is gone. My first loss this month, minus 20 pips.

This is why I need to join a discussion, I need another view if there is something I overlook.
Monday morning trades can be risky, as there's no clear direction. It wasn't a bad trade- well I took it too! Your SL was in a good position, TP was too ambitious (unless you planned on taking some off before). The 4 hr chart didn't look great, but showed potential on 1hr (we hadn't closed below the previous bars low) and 15min was at prior PA (hammer).

I don't want to criticise your style, as it's clearly something you've developed, and if it works for you, don't change it, but I'd be wary of placing too much faith in volume. With the decentralized market in forex it is less reliable than stocks and varies depending on your feed. But there are many that trade it successfully. I find it useful when the odd massive volume candle shouts out at you, but would personally not take it further, as it can tie you into a position, thinking "it's going to turn soon because we had that massive volume bear bar" when it can and often does carry on south. Also the high volume that you spoke of coincided with the London open, so was perfectly normal behaviour, that would decrease as the day continued, hence less volume at 12620.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,974
  • Jun 11, 2012 5:28am Jun 11, 2012 5:28am
I'm watching 1255x for a possible reversal
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,975
  • Jun 11, 2012 5:46am Jun 11, 2012 5:46am
Quoting Trader131
Monday morning trades can be risky, as there's no clear direction. It wasn't a bad trade- well I took it too! Your SL was in a good position, TP was too ambitious (unless you planned on taking some off before). The 4 hr chart didn't look great, but showed potential on 1hr (we hadn't closed below the previous bars low) and 15min was at prior PA (hammer).

I don't want to criticise your style, as it's clearly something you've developed, and if it works for you, don't change it, but I'd be wary of placing too much faith in volume. With the decentralized...
Well, volume sometimes not very reliable but I used it just for confirmation, if it wasn't for London opening. And yes it depend on what liquidity provider the broker use. Actually after re-asses the trade, I won't take it if I am fully aware of the situation it just too risky. This is the first trade in London fist session on monday after several month, I just too happy about last week performance and take the trade after few minutes since I open my terminal.

In the few month back I just don't trade on London 1st session and New York 1st session on friday. I do that after talking to a senior member here by the nick Alorente, a very nice guy. Got a bad trade on friday and posted it in this forum, the old man told me that PA is not very clear on those time and advice me to avoid taking any trade at those time. After that I looked back at my trade history and petrified that I got statistic to tend lost often on those time. That was in march I think.

Add: I have some trend line on the level you mentioned above, but for now I am watching GU. There is something brewing there. Oh and about my TP, I think it was better to have higher TP because I have a chance to adjust it compared to if I have lower TP and hitted before I have a chance to move it.
  • #35,976
  • Jun 11, 2012 5:56am Jun 11, 2012 5:56am
Yes, absolutely- I'd agree with Alorente. Friday's used to scare me when I started out in forex, but nowadays I'm more wary of Monday morning, as PA can be tricky, and direction hard to gauge. Also EO used to talk about TIW Wednesdays too- it's a minefield out there!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,977
  • Jun 11, 2012 6:44am Jun 11, 2012 6:44am
Quoting Trader131
I'm watching 1255x for a possible reversal
No PA next stop 1.252X
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,978
  • Jun 11, 2012 6:56am Jun 11, 2012 6:56am
Quoting Trader131
No PA next stop 1.252X
Got in on GU, after the second inverted hammer on M15.
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  • #35,979
  • Jun 11, 2012 7:34am Jun 11, 2012 7:34am
Morning...

Took a long on the GU at 5530.

Bought in the wick of the 15M hammer that failed to go below the previous low.
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Closed 1/2 here at 40 at the 15M 15/50 MAs and moved stop for the remaining 1/2 to B/E. If we don't get a close above the MAs on the next few candles I'll probably close out the remainder.
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  • #35,980
  • Jun 11, 2012 7:37am Jun 11, 2012 7:37am
Morning Dharma, I went long gu too at 26, after that inverted hammer just closed
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
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