Attachments: EurAnalysis

EurAnalysis

#35,501
Jun 10, 2012 5:41pm Jun 10, 2012 5:41pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

It's still too early to tell where this is going. Asia, Europe and US still have to react to the news.

However, look at what we have here.... Rising channel (RC-1) resistance, coupled with the monthly rising trend line (RTL-0) mentioned in my earlier post, plus the 38.2 fibo of the move down from the May 1st high seem to be offering strong resistance.... at least for now anyway. Take note that we also have some serious bearish divergence and the RSX showing an overbought condition. These are all perfect technical reasons to sell. Remember however that a face ripping short covering rally doesn't care about technicals.

My 1.26670 sell limit order got triggered 0.1 pips higher at 1.26671 which is also the absolute high. Wow, right to the 10th of a pip. If this sucker drops from here, this will be my first ever perfect sell limit order (thanks in part to a 0.1 pip positive slippage from my broker).

E/U H4

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#35,502
Jun 10, 2012 5:41pm Jun 10, 2012 5:41pm

drzakir123
| Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

Oh of course

Ignored

about £70

Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]

#35,503
Jun 10, 2012 5:47pm Jun 10, 2012 5:47pm

Likerty
Joined May 2010 | Status: Trader | 2,004 Posts

Quoting forextraderx

Disliked

in my experience, when i'm the only one who feels a certain way... i see it as a potential opportunity to either be very excited because I'm ahead of the curve...or an opportunity to feel slightly dismayed, because i'm just completely wrong.

funny thing is, i know which feeling to identify with based on whether price goes my way... or doesn't go my way.

If it goes my way, I was right!

if it goes against me, I was wrong.

and usually at these times, if i'm wrong, I generally decide to do nothing until my understanding of events makes "sense"....

Ignored

The problem with "..if it goes my way.." is that initial market reaction is not necessarily a sentiment exposer... So now is a short covering... Still? WHere is a point when short covering changes to true-bull-trend flow..?

#35,504
Jun 10, 2012 5:54pm Jun 10, 2012 5:54pm

BFSGcapital
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2012 | 1,121 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

It's still too early to tell where this is going. Asia, Europe and US still have to react to the news.

However, look at what we have here.... Rising channel (RC-1) resistance, coupled with the monthly rising trend line (RTL-0) mentioned in my earlier post, plus the 38.2 fibo of the move down from the May 1st high seem to be offering strong resistance.... at least for now anyway. Take note that we also have some serious bearish divergence and the RSX showing an overbought condition. These are all perfect technical reasons to sell. Remember however...

Ignored

Wouldn't that be something? Kind of like if I could hit a hole in one...

I'm showing 679 as the high, but you have better spreads than me obviously, or I guess just diff brokers quote price slightly different

An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.

#35,505
Jun 10, 2012 5:57pm Jun 10, 2012 5:57pm

ejiexe
| Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Senior Member | 948 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

I hear what you're saying, but you must never argue with a bullet train. It doesn't matter if it is bear or bull. Today is risk off.

Of course 1.20 is out of reach for today when you use rational thinking. A more likely closing target for today is 1.2415 to 1.2445. However, nothing says it cannot go further. It's Friday, it's major risk-off and the weak shorts have already been eliminated.

AS for a rebound, yes absolutely, but 1.2620 is history now. Any rebound will most likely be well capped by 1.2525 now.

Ignored

This is when you said it. May be you are referring to 8th June alone and I mis interpreted you.

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.

#35,506
Jun 10, 2012 5:58pm Jun 10, 2012 5:58pm

drzakir123
| Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts

ok everyone dreamland calling see u all tommorrow morning bye

Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]

#35,507
Jun 10, 2012 6:00pm Jun 10, 2012 6:00pm

BFSGcapital
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2012 | 1,121 Posts

Quoting BFSGcapital

Disliked

Wouldn't that be something? Kind of like if I could hit a hole in one...

I'm showing 679 as the high, but you have better spreads than me obviously, or I guess just diff brokers quote price slightly different

Ignored

Nevermind, showing 674 as the high

An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.

#35,508
Jun 10, 2012 6:02pm Jun 10, 2012 6:02pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting BFSGcapital

Disliked

Wouldn't that be something? Kind of like if I could hit a hole in one...

I'm showing 679 as the high, but you have better spreads than me obviously, or I guess just diff brokers quote price slightly different

Ignored

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#35,509
Jun 10, 2012 6:05pm Jun 10, 2012 6:05pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting ejiexe

Disliked

This is when you said it. May be you are referring to 8th June alone and I mis interpreted you.

Ignored

That's right. I was only referring to Friday. Sorry for not being clear about it.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#35,510
Jun 10, 2012 6:15pm Jun 10, 2012 6:15pm

ejiexe
| Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Senior Member | 948 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

That's right. I was only referring to Friday. Sorry for not being clear about it.

Ignored

With that information, I change my mind when I saw a good PA (raill Track) on m15 chart to sell around 1.2514 with stop loss @ 1.2530. When the market opened I was stoped out at 1.2656 instead of 1.2530 lol . I did'nt stick with my believe that 1.2520 will be broken on the next attempt. Anyway, it is the news that move price to our technical area even if it is weekend.

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.

#35,511
Jun 10, 2012 6:18pm Jun 10, 2012 6:18pm

Halifax
| Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Liquidity Provider | 655 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

My 1.26670 sell limit order got triggered 0.1 pips higher at 1.26671 which is also the absolute high. Wow, right to the 10th of a pip. If this sucker drops from here, this will be my first ever perfect sell limit order (thanks in part to a 0.1 pip positive slippage from my broker).

Ignored

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Hmm, well this wasn't exactly how I wanted my order to be hit, gap up is scary

but at least it didn't blow through the 10 pip S/L.

Nothing to complain about I guess, but I just woke up and was taken by surprise to see an open order haha

"Don't Panic..."

#35,512
Jun 10, 2012 6:21pm Jun 10, 2012 6:21pm

ejiexe
| Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Senior Member | 948 Posts

Quoting Luis Carlos

Disliked

My targets on chart. Look the first one 0.618 was reached. I like above 1.28...

Ignored

That is the area I am looking to also sell to 1.20xx

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.

#35,513
Jun 10, 2012 6:24pm Jun 10, 2012 6:24pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

This is not going to do Spanish bond yields any favors. If the below article is true, then I would be expecting the Spanish 10 year bond yield to start rising again. I guess we'll find out in the morning at London open.

If the 10 year rate starts ticking up again, then that would probably be bearish (once again) for the Euro. I say probably because the idea of a bank bailout should ease tensions in the equity markets (until they start focusing on Italy).

Spanish Bondholders May Rank Behind Official Loans After Bailout

Investors holding bonds issued by Spain and its banks will probably rank behind official creditors in the queue for payment after the nation asked for a bailout of as much as 100 billion euros ($125 billion).

If the cash were to come from the ESM, its treaty provides it with preferred creditor status, junior only to the International Monetary Fund. The EFSF isn’t explicitly a preferred creditor, prompting Finland’s Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen to demand collateral if the facility were used to advance the money. Even so, the Greek example showed that official lenders aren’t willing to accept losses, preferring to force private bondholders to take greater writedowns in a restructuring.

Euro-area leaders would prefer Spain’s financing to come from the ESM because the fund will have paid-in capital, German lawmaker Norbert Barthle, the budgetary expert in Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union caucus, told Stuttgarter Zeitung newspaper. The authorities should examine whether the ESM has sufficient capital, he was quoted as saying.

“The risk is now all Spanish bonds are inferior to the ESM,” Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank A/S in Hellerup, Denmark, wrote in a research note. “Finland already declared that if this loan is coming from EFSF they want collateral.”

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it