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AUD/USD

  • #46,721
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:13pm Jun 10, 2012 12:13pm
Quoting jckm
I think is could be safe to buy it around 0,9820, and try to go long, but lets see what level it will fall to for support.
Please provide your insight as to why it could be safe to buy Aussie around 0.9820 and your target. Thanks.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,722
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:17pm Jun 10, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting sifyragnarok
Get paid for being active in forums. 20cents per post. check it out
Click here
Is your post an advertisement for MT5 Forum?
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,723
  • Jun 10, 2012 1:23pm Jun 10, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Please provide your insight as to why it could be safe to buy Aussie around 0.9820 and your target. Thanks.
Æhh? Look at the chart I made
Twitter: Forexlivetrade - Buy: AFFI.CPH ISIN: DK0015966592 - target 12 DKK
  • #46,724
  • Jun 10, 2012 2:07pm Jun 10, 2012 2:07pm
9987 gap up
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #46,725
  • Jun 10, 2012 2:17pm Jun 10, 2012 2:17pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
9987 gap up
Thank ya sir, FXCM's showing Euro up 150 pips but nothing on the Aussie...
  • #46,726
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:24pm Jun 10, 2012 3:24pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This morning when I called this trade, it was between 0.9830 and 0.9840. I projected Aussie would hit 61.08% (0.99335) and she did. It was 0.99401.

Based on today's trading and my chart pattern I closed my long positions near the top range and entered short. I will keep them over the weekend. This bounce was over and we shall see a gap down Sunday night. IMHO.
sorry to say that gap wasn't in the downward trajectory like many thought.

I too got caught in the 66pip gap UP
  • #46,727
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:53pm Jun 10, 2012 3:53pm
Quoting benjamf13
sorry to say that gap wasn't in the downward trajectory like many thought.

I too got caught in the 66pip gap UP
spain receiving a $100 billion bailout package, how can u not suspect some kind of rally? that is some big money getting poured into the euro....the euro is a hot mess, eyes on her ''recovery''


4 countrys are now on life support in the ez, will it last?
  • #46,728
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:08pm Jun 10, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting benjamf13
sorry to say that gap wasn't in the downward trajectory like many thought.

I too got caught in the 66pip gap UP
It's O.K.. I have a few short positions only. Cannot win each time. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,729
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:50pm Jun 10, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Is your post an advertisement for MT5 Forum?
Haha... ya. wow. cheeky dude eh?
  • #46,730
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:54pm Jun 10, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting benjamf13
sorry to say that gap wasn't in the downward trajectory like many thought.

I too got caught in the 66pip gap UP
Take it easy. This artificial rally pumped up by fake Chinese data should be over soon. IMO http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,731
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:58pm Jun 10, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Take it easy. This artificial rally pumped up by fake Chinese data should be over soon. IMO http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

here we goo sellers are taking control and ppl recognized the fake up wave !!!
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.â€Â
  • #46,732
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:58pm Jun 10, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting forextraderx
Haha... ya. wow. cheeky dude eh?
look at that guys recent posts... looks like he waits untill his ban is lifted then has another go at it :-)
  • #46,733
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:05pm Jun 10, 2012 5:05pm
Quoting Silencer
spain receiving a $100 billion bailout package, how can u not suspect some kind of rally? that is some big money getting poured into the euro....the euro is a hot mess, eyes on her ''recovery''


4 countrys are now on life support in the ez, will it last?
Silencer.,.. I see it very very different.

I see it like this: if 4 countries are on life support, but the euro rallied on a bad NFP because it was hoping for a QE... and when the QE hope was proven wrong... it still closed up for that week 110 pips....

it's telling me the market is saying "I don't care what the news or the world thinks...i'm going higher."

This is usually how massive bull and bear moves start.... the world doesn't believe it... but the supply demand imbalance is so great... that it keeps moving, and then, the further it does, the nay sayers start to doubt...and cover their losses...only pushing it higher...

and this continues sometimes for a long, long ways.

best example i could give of a recent occurance of this was the GBP/USD low made on about Oct 6th (huge pin bar day)

it was that day that the brits announced they were going to have a "QE"

and price sold off super strong, but yet, within 36 hours, was trading well above the point it sold off from.

This should be devistating for a currency, and yet...it moved up.

of course, it continued to do so...not stopping until it had made about a 900 pip retracement, before it contined to drop.

I firmly believe with a great deal of conviction we are seeing the same basic thing here in the risk markets now.

I will be very, very suprised if this week closes lower than last week did.

of course, i could be wrong, and that's why God invented the stop loss...

but, man...i've seen this maybe a dozen times in the last few years in different markets...

and every time, it is just a sweet sweet opportunity to play contrarian in a confused marketplace, until of course most all start saying "well, it's a bull trend now!"

because it's not. and that's when the very large, very powerful retracement will show the world why making money in the market really is tough.

anyway...guess we'll all find out in the next few weeks.

good luck.

X
  • #46,734
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:11pm Jun 10, 2012 5:11pm
Quoting forextraderx
Silencer.,.. I see it very very different.

I see it like this: if 4 countries are on life support, but the euro rallied on a bad NFP because it was hoping for a QE... and when the QE hope was proven wrong... it still closed up for that week 110 pips....

it's telling me the market is saying "I don't care what the news or the world thinks...i'm going higher."

This is usually how massive bull and bear moves start.... the world doesn't believe it... but the supply demand imbalance is so great... that it keeps moving, and then, the further it does,...
lol your post seem like theres 100 different scenarios happening at the same time.... confusing, should make em a little short an sweet for me :-)

but yes time is the truth, one can only speculate the possibilities
  • #46,735
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:17pm Jun 10, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting forextraderx
Silencer.,.. I see it very very different.

I see it like this: if 4 countries are on life support, but the euro rallied on a bad NFP because it was hoping for a QE... and when the QE hope was proven wrong... it still closed up for that week 110 pips....

it's telling me the market is saying "I don't care what the news or the world thinks...i'm going higher."

This is usually how massive bull and bear moves start.... the world doesn't believe it... but the supply demand imbalance is so great... that it keeps moving, and then, the further it does,...

FTX,

Seems to me, Euro is like a very sick patient who is currently holding up by doctors and nurses. Its recent performance is more like "dead cat bounce". Euro is on its way to 1.15 and then drops to below parity very soon. A strong Aussie makes sense to me but not Euro. No way.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,736
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:19pm Jun 10, 2012 5:19pm
Quoting Silencer
lol your post seem like theres 100 different scenarios happening at the same time.... confusing, should make em a little short an sweet for me :-)

but yes time is the truth, one can only speculate the possibilities
the events I mentioned were listed in a linear chronological fashion... don't see how you could have possibly gotten "same time" out of it...

At any rate... it seems you would rather find some sort of justification for a short position, rather than carefully consider and appropriately question my response here.

If I were you, I would be asking myself "hmmm... what are the odds that this guy knows what is is talking about? is he primarily a winning trader from what I can see? or is he mostly a losing trader from what i can see...?"

If i asked myself this, and determined that "this guy" was mostly a winning trader, I would then ask myself "ok... what makes him think this... and do I really want to fade a winning trader?"

Those would be my thoughts anyway. I found such thoughts to be helpful as I have progressed in my trading. I still think in much the same manner, as some of my posts will demonstrate.

I'm not sure if you have similar thoughts... but from one person to another... I found it to be helpful, and if you don't do this already, you might find it helpful too

X
  • #46,737
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:22pm Jun 10, 2012 5:22pm
Quoting DaddyBear
FTX,

Seems to me, Euro is like a very sick patient who is currently holding up by doctors and nurses. Its recent performance is more like "dead cat bounce". Euro is on its way to 1.15 and then drops to below parity very soon. A strong Aussie makes sense to me but not Euro. No way.
Ya... I hear ya DB, and i won't deny that's my feelings too...

but my experience says that when things like what i'm seeing happen... i've always gotten run over for following my "logic".

well, maybe not always..but it tends to be a losing week or 2... and sometimes, it's really...really hurt.

I could be wrong, i'm wrong about these things at least 35% of the time... and probably more like 40%

but, sigh... i can't explain it. i've just seen this too mjuch to ignore the warnings.

i may not go crazy nuts-o long... but i doubt i'll go short today...or tomorrow, or really anything until 2800.... unless i'm proven wrong and this gap fills and price doesn't close above the high of today.

at least i'll only be wrong for a day, and have a specific criteria to know if that is likely to be the case.

better than getting run over by a truck for a week.

X
  • #46,738
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:32pm Jun 10, 2012 5:32pm
Short 1.00 SL 1.20 TP .9978
  • #46,739
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:35pm Jun 10, 2012 5:35pm
I added to my position of long AUD/USD. The overall trend is still down, but eh... maybe next week it'll go back down. I don't think Greece will leave the Euro. They'll do everything in their effort to prevent that from happening. but from now til June 17... the situation is still unknown. Does that mean everyone will flock to the USD between today and June 17? Fundamental sure confuses me. Technical is a sell on this one, but it still could go higher. I wish technicals are able to give his the high tops... then life would be easy. Does anyone think this weekend gap will close? and if it close which way would you think it'll go?
  • #46,740
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:41pm Jun 10, 2012 5:41pm
ForexTraderX

So you are long AUD? when is a good place to take profits? Or you'll just let your stop loss take you out? In the current situation in Europe... I'm longing AUD and I'm feeling already very uneasy about it. the fundamentals of Europe's Crisis is scarying the SHIT out of me. once it goes down it goes down fast. I don't want to stopped out of a position because of a stop loss either... because those are gains I'm risking.
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