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AUD/USD

  • #46,701
  • Jun 10, 2012 1:37am Jun 10, 2012 1:37am
Quoting tightscalper
im thinking bullish sentiment. on aud. GOOD fundamentals, charts saying moving up of major resistance. aud been going up for years and years. i think at the very least another test of pairity
I concur. I think a break of 1 stands a good shot...and if we can hit that and hold it before it has a chance to retrace to 9800... we'll see 1.02 IMO.

maybe not this week, but before we retest low, and i'll be happy to bet money on that if I get the chance.

like, maybe 13 or 17 cents at any rate.

X
  • #46,702
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:21am Jun 10, 2012 3:21am
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  • #46,703
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:28am Jun 10, 2012 3:28am
Quoting Daytrader74
From what i've seen man... I would really put some time into trying to determine what price level is likely to stop and reverse a move.

Start with daily, 4hr, and 1hr charts. don't go lower than this at first.

just pick a couple places you feel price will turn when it gets there. ignore everything else.

do this for 2-3 weeks. demo if you prefer

just every day, pick 1 or 2 "support levels", and 1 or 2 "resistance levels"

record how often you are correct...and how far price turned around by.

try to figure out why each time. why it worked, why it failed, why it got 24 pip reversal here, why a 143 pip reversal there...etc.

do a couple of different markets if you want...EU, AU, GU... these are pretty good IMO

if you can just learn this one skill, you can make money almost every week, with tight stops, and great profit margins.

one skill... knowing how to recognize a level that will stop a price movement....

you get this down, the rest is pretty easy (but you likely won't need anything more... this is a big enough edge to make a full time income with)

X
  • #46,704
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:34am Jun 10, 2012 3:34am
Quoting Daytrader74
live account? how did that happen?
  • #46,705
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:41am Jun 10, 2012 3:41am
Quoting forextraderx
From what i've seen man... I would really put some time into trying to determine what price level is likely to stop and reverse a move.

Start with daily, 4hr, and 1hr charts. don't go lower than this at first.

just pick a couple places you feel price will turn when it gets there. ignore everything else.

do this for 2-3 weeks. demo if you prefer

just every day, pick 1 or 2 "support levels", and 1 or 2 "resistance levels"

record how often you are correct...and how far price turned around by.

try to figure out why each time. why...
i agree with a lot of what you said, but it really depends what he is comfortable with. i know i couldnt trade like that. and should definitely start with a demo. but there are always some levels that are important. like 1.00 here its a killer level, price reacts solely around some level
  • #46,706
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:43am Jun 10, 2012 3:43am
Quoting tightscalper
i agree with a lot of what you said, but it really depends what he is comfortable with. i know i couldnt trade like that. and should definitely start with a demo. but there are always some levels that are important. like 1.00 here its a killer level, price reacts solely around some level
Well, i guess the first thought that comes to mind is "why do you say you couldn't trade like this?"

if you tell me that, i'll maybe have a follow up comment or something...

X
  • #46,707
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:48am Jun 10, 2012 3:48am
Quoting tightscalper
live account? how did that happen?
There was an earthquake that caused a shift in the trading accounts movements...
  • #46,708
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:51am Jun 10, 2012 3:51am
Quoting Daytrader74
Picking up pennies in front of a steam roller!
  • #46,709
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:10am Jun 10, 2012 4:10am
Quoting forextraderx
From what i've seen man... I would really put some time into trying to determine what price level is likely to stop and reverse a move.

Start with daily, 4hr, and 1hr charts. don't go lower than this at first.

just pick a couple places you feel price will turn when it gets there. ignore everything else.

do this for 2-3 weeks. demo if you prefer

just every day, pick 1 or 2 "support levels", and 1 or 2 "resistance levels"

record how often you are correct...and how far price turned around by.

try to figure out why each time. why...
Very informative. Thank you.
  • #46,710
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:11am Jun 10, 2012 4:11am
Quoting alqemist
Picking up pennies in front of a steam roller!
Is that your interpretation of the photo I put up?
  • #46,711
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:15am Jun 10, 2012 4:15am
Some of the stuff I'm reading here and on the attached links is confusing me...especially the statement "there is no one left to sell to"...

Currency is a medium and not an asset...when currency is being bought by big boys, it's generally a hedge against their assets...currency on it's own does not give a yield...my point being...if I'm an investor with assets, I'd be liquidating whilst these assets retain value and ready to invest in the first global region that shows growth or steady fundamentals...apart from European indices...has there been a global liquidation yet? No...

If china has disinflation it means they're in recession, a step away from deflation...consumer prices have dropped either due to lack of personal consumption power, or passing on the discount as manufacturers have dropped prices due to lower commodity prices due to surplus of commodities...a surplus implies lack of demand...reduced demand for Aussie resources will weaken Aussie economy fundamentals gradually...
  • #46,712
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:34am Jun 10, 2012 4:34am
Quoting monkey@forex
Some of the stuff I'm reading here and on the attached links is confusing me...especially the statement "there is no one left to sell to"...

Currency is a medium and not an asset...when currency is being bought by big boys, it's generally a hedge against their assets...currency on it's own does not give a yield...my point being...if I'm an investor with assets, I'd be liquidating whilst these assets retain value and ready to invest in the first global region that shows growth or steady fundamentals...apart from European indices...has there been...
well... a specific quote in context would be a bit more helpful to properly respond to these thoughts... but i'm gonna give it my best shot anyway.

of course in an absolute sense, your correct about there always being someone who could sell should they choose too, at least with regards to the currency markets.

What I personally mean when I make such a statement is that the majority of market participants who are willing to sell, particularly to open a short, are "all done" and there is "no one really left to sell"... is that there are very few large traders (using COT definition of "large trader") who are interested in increasing or establishing a net short position at these price points, primarily because the driving factors influencing the movement in price have largely been factored in, and short of a new catalyst that can somehow increase the level of fear in the market on the whole, then as the current large speculative shorts begin to close... they will find as they close their positions, there is relatively thin liquidity at each "pip" because the most active, liquidity contributing participants in the market place are the large speculators, and they as a group are overwhelmingly net short.

and since the vast majority of large specs at this point are either holding short, or looking to cover their shorts, but are not looking to get short at this price and time, the act of "short covering" in such a relatively low liquidity environment will have a disproportionate effect on the price of a currency pair, thus the outcome of such "short covering" will be able to push price much higher per unit bought, than the origional push down per unit sold.

I hope this makes some sense here.. ask away if it doesn't

X
  • #46,713
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:45am Jun 10, 2012 4:45am
Globally every region is overdrawn...overdrawn individuals have low consumption power till the debt is repaid or wages increase...no wage increases happening...to lower ur debt u can't consume...lack of consumption leads to further job loss

Overdrawn corporations...no demand for products/services as consumption drops, they reduce investment projects to remain liquid, attempts to reduce costs, biggest cost being labour force...

Overdrawn governments cut back on public spending projects, reduce subsidies, face reduced tax revenues...

Until all these entities reduce this debt pile, nothing will change globally...

I'm a small investor who needs to pay his bills after losing my job so I
liquidate all my stocks...I'm a medium investor who will get no dividend or increase in stock value as consumption drops, I liquidate and buy bonds...the boys left are banks, hedge funds and pension funds, who liquidate if credit markets freeze, require increased cash reserves or need the cash as people stop contributing to their pension fund...

All this liquidation cannot cause demand till crippling debt levels have been paid off...I genuinely believe after stocks are liquidated, then it will be bonds and no one will be able to pay the yields which will be double digit and then it will be global bankruptcy or global war...U either stop paying the people u owe and hope they die (via poverty/starvation) or u kill the people u owe money to(war)

If I'm rambling it's cos I'm severly overdosed on Jack Daniels...
  • #46,714
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:55am Jun 10, 2012 4:55am
Normally I would agree that u shouldn't follow lemmings off a cliff, however this scenario seems like a lion running at the herd...I don't think running towards the lion is a good survival technique...lol...all it takes is for Germany to be downgraded based on zero or negative GDP growth or a drop in exports and that lion will rip u apart

QUOTE=forextraderx;5743932]well... a specific quote in context would be a bit more helpful to properly respond to these thoughts... but i'm gonna give it my best shot anyway.

of course in an absolute sense, your correct about there always being someone who could sell should they choose too, at least with regards to the currency markets.

What I personally mean when I make such a statement is that the majority of market participants who are willing to sell, particularly to open a short, are "all done" and there is "no one really left to sell"... is that there are very few large traders (using COT definition of "large trader") who are interested in increasing or establishing a net short position at these price points, primarily because the driving factors influencing the movement in price have largely been factored in, and short of a new catalyst that can somehow increase the level of fear in the market on the whole, then as the current large speculative shorts begin to close... they will find as they close their positions, there is relatively thin liquidity at each "pip" because the most active, liquidity contributing participants in the market place are the large speculators, and they as a group are overwhelmingly net short.

and since the vast majority of large specs at this point are either holding short, or looking to cover their shorts, but are not looking to get short at this price and time, the act of "short covering" in such a relatively low liquidity environment will have a disproportionate effect on the price of a currency pair, thus the outcome of such "short covering" will be able to push price much higher per unit bought, than the origional push down per unit sold.

I hope this makes some sense here.. ask away if it doesn't

X[/quote]
  • #46,715
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:04am Jun 10, 2012 5:04am
Quoting monkey@forex
Normally I would agree that u shouldn't follow lemmings off a cliff, however this scenario seems like a lion running at the herd...I don't think running towards the lion is a good survival technique...lol...all it takes is for Germany to be downgraded based on zero or negative GDP growth or a drop in exports and that lion will rip u apart

QUOTE=forextraderx;5743932]well... a specific quote in context would be a bit more helpful to properly respond to these thoughts... but i'm gonna give it my best shot anyway.

of course in an absolute sense, your...
[/quote]

Maybe. though the market seems happy to rally based on the likleyhood of the future existence of the euro...not GDP data.

Though I do question current low german bund yields... anyway.

it sounds like you are coming from a pretty fundi-centric analytical background...and that's all fine and good... I just happen to feel that based on my previous experience, fundamentals as you are focusing on are often background noise to the immediate issue that the markets are focusing on.

I mean, otherwise, these problems existed for the last couple years, but the euro is yet to hit parity with the U.S. dollar, nevermind tank to the price one would expect of a currency about to become defunct in some greater or lesser way.

right now, it's a headline driven market. if tomorrow it's a solid fundamentally driven market, i'll pay that a great deal more heed...but for now, headlines are behind the wheel....and i'm along with them for the ride.

besides. I hold trades for hours. maybe a day.... which is plenty of time for me to navigate around certain big news events if I find reason to do so.

X
  • #46,716
  • Edited 10:22am Jun 10, 2012 6:27am | Edited 10:22am
Some headlines may move Aussie next week.

First is the pending Greek election. The uncertainty of the outcome and the possibility of Greece's exit of Euro.

Second, China's slowdown. This may have more direct impact on Aussie. China's Communist regime has had very low transparency of its system since the beginning of PRC. I don't believe any information released by this regime. Last Thursday's surprising rate cut is like giving a CPR to a patient suffered cardiac arrest.

"Both May exports and imports hit record highs in value terms. The Annual growth of 12.7 percent in imports last month also exceeded expectations of a 5.0 percent increase in a Reuters poll, and were well above the 0.3 percent annual rise in April." [source: CNBC] http://www.cnbc.com/id/47753924

Do you really believe this data? I don't. Copper and crude oil imports are the main driving forces of such a jump. There was no mention about the iron ore or coal imports which are Aussie's main commodities exported to China. Seems to me, even this data was not modified, it provided no relief for Aussie's export.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,717
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:32am Jun 10, 2012 7:32am
Quoting whet412
Looks like there is gonna be a counter party to your trader man.
I tooks a trade earlier on audusd and it worked out pretty good.
Am still looking to hold it for another day or two, since I believe we have very strong support for it to the upside in short term. Here is the trade attached. Entered a little late, was too patient with the trade. I trade just looking at the charts themselves, and dont use indicators or anything like that. Have had good results so far based on just pure chart looking. Good trading everyone and hope we all have profitable...
Resistances or supports are not tiny horizontal lines. Instead, they are free-form bands with various widths like Ichimoku clouds.

There are different orders or forces behind the market moves. They are in a hierarchy system. The natural principles override man-made rules. R/S are relative terms. The absolute support is zero and the absolute resistance is unlimited. Any R/S in between are merely market's pauses.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,718
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:40am Jun 10, 2012 7:40am
0.9875 is an area of interest for me, might load up longs around here
  • #46,719
  • Edited 10:14am Jun 10, 2012 7:43am | Edited 10:14am
Quoting jayjb
0.9875 is an area of interest for me, might load up longs around here
The first bounce could be around 0.9850 or lower based on Friday's PA and trading. IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,720
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:25am Jun 10, 2012 9:25am
I think is could be safe to buy it around 0,9820, and try to go long, but lets see what level it will fall to for support.
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