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  • #35,401
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:38am Jun 10, 2012 7:38am
Quoting Skynet
And to fxsport--that fundamentals can be use to rationalize...that is quite true...technicals can be used to rationalize too....heck, the moon cycles can be used to rationalize.
No argument from me on that one. I've fallen victim to using my EW analysis many times to stay in a postion longer than I've wanted to and watch a positive position turn negative.

I'd LOVE to be able to say I use strict stop and absolute money management and that never happens but hey I'd be lying and everyone would know it as well.

I knew a trader once who used the moon cycles when trading the soybean market and he was very profitable! I just couldn't buy into what he was selling because it didn't mesh with my training. Doesn't mean it doesn't work but it wasn't my cup of coffee.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #35,402
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:41am Jun 10, 2012 7:41am
Quoting forextraderx
Na Dr... I almost couldn't disagree more.


and the amount of "market moving" traders who operate as you describe above are almost non-existent. banks and hedge funds usually arn't scalping the 15 min charts.... and they arn't changing the way they feel about a trade based on that last 5 min candle... at least this will hold true ALMOST every time.


X
I have no idea how big boys operate but I heard more than twice now that investment banks do use 15m and 1H charts and place their orders at levels which are known as pivot points.
I heard it on two ocassions
1. From Peter Bain - trading like a big dogs dvd
2. From my main man Steve Nison who is responsible for introducing candles to all of us and he did instytutional seminars for JP and virtually every big bank in US - all of them were using 1H chart to learn FX and then moved to 15M
Just what I heard
swing it!
  • #35,403
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:45am Jun 10, 2012 7:45am
Quoting tomspin
I have no idea how big boys operate but I heard more than twice now that investment banks do use 15m and 1H charts and place their orders at levels which are known as pivot points.
I heard it on two ocassions
1. From Peter Bain - trading like a big dogs dvd
2. From my main man Steve Nison who is responsible for introducing candles to all of us and he did instytutional seminars for JP and virtually every big bank in US - all of them were using 1H chart to learn FX and then moved to 15M
Just what I heard
Well, i don't wanna split hairs, but i didn't say they didn't USE them... they just don't "scalp" 15 and 5 min TF's as viewed to determine relative levels of fear and greed in the marketplace as an aggregate.

fear and greed are macro.... short term candlesticks are more micro... evidence of order imbalances...etc.

fear and greed is the motivating factor behind the orders being at those places in the first place.

i thnk D just kinda misunderstood it, so i was trying to clarify.
  • #35,404
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:46am Jun 10, 2012 7:46am
Quoting fxsport
.......
I knew a trader once who used the moon cycles when trading the soybean market and he was very profitable! I just couldn't buy into what he was selling because it didn't mesh with my training. Doesn't mean it doesn't work but it wasn't my cup of coffee.
Is this trader, bumapatria?

Dont know much about him...but i tracked about 10 or so of his calls on this thread...they did okay. Okay, that is not statistically significant.

My point? There are as many trading approaches as there are personalities. Choose your poison...choose your weapon. At the end of the day....it is all about consistent profitability. Technical analysis is very prone to rationalization because you can keep seeing different patterns and waves within waves to justify your actions.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #35,405
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:53am Jun 10, 2012 7:53am
Quoting Skynet
Is this trader, bumapatria?

Dont know much about him...but i tracked about 10 or so of his calls on this thread...they did okay. Okay, that is not statistically significant.

.
You actually tracked that guy? maybe i'm just a narrow minded ignoramous who can't spell...but, i actuallly never felt very inspired to track such market activity.

for some mystical reason, I just didn't put much stock into his method yielding results that I would envy.

::::: as you said tho... infinate ways to do it.

X
  • #35,406
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:57am Jun 10, 2012 7:57am
Quoting forextraderx
Na Dr... I almost couldn't disagree more.

a market that has sold off 1000 pips in 5 - 6 weeks has sold off 1000 pips in 5 -6 weeks. period. look at it on any chart, 1 minute, 1 week...it's gonna show that.

and the amount of "market moving" traders who operate as you describe above are almost non-existent. banks and hedge funds usually arn't scalping the 15 min charts.... and they arn't changing the way they feel about a trade based on that last 5 min candle... at least this will hold true ALMOST every time.

Furthermore, the amount of bad...
Well said.

Quoting forextraderx
again, check any TF you want. that's how it played out. it looks the same on a 1 min chart, as a 1 week chart. 110 pips in 5 trading days is 110 pips in 5 trading days.

and that indicates, to me... the fear is overdone... and the market is ready and willing to move up should any little excuse to do some come out.
On this front I think we can agree to disagree. Why? Because I don't thing that there is ENOUGH fear in the system yet.

It's very similar to a situation when you get a call at 1 a.m. that your father/mother has been taken to the hospital and you need to come right away, then the caller hangs up.

WHAT! OMG did they have a heart attack, maybe mom fell down the stairs. What happened? You panic and rush right off to the hospital to find out. When you get there you learn that they are currently in surgery but everything is under control.

Surgery? What happened you wonder. It really was a heart attack wasn't it. You look around for a familar face for comfort and consulation. Finally you see your father and he's sitting down sobbing for his wife (your mom). You rush over and as he recognizes you relief comes to his face and you learn that mommie dearest tripped over the cat and fell down the stairs. She's in surgery now for her leg/hip but she should be alright.

That's how I feel the markets have reacted to the Greek crisis and the Spanish banks - the problem is that isn't the end of our little story....

Quoting forextraderx
if candle formations on different time frames are the driving factor behind ones fear/greed in the marketplace...I would venture to speculate that one is not a very profitable trader. I know there are exceptions to this of course... but, well... i think your seeing it as something much more important than it is in reality.

X
What happens when mommie comes out of surgery and the doctor says everything went well and she should do fine?

Relief, your mood gets lifted, much like the market did last week. The problem is that it has been estimated that when little old ladies above the age of 70 fall and break their hips that their life expectancies are usually 2-3 years at most. The reason is due to complications that arise from rehabilitation, secondary infections and post-operative problems like blood clots in the extremities and lungs.

My point is that the prior weeks market movements were fear directed because of the fear of the unknown, Grexit. Now people have calculated the cost of the Grexit and it's within tolerable limits. The problem with the Spanish banks, what I'd like to coin as Spandex, is only now being discussed but not being taken seriously enough.

On top of that is the Italian problem when has been swept under the rug along with Portugal.

Then there's the little red-headed stepchild in Ireland who did everything that was requested of them and people thought that country was out of play. Suddenly the Irish are seeing what the people of Spain got - money without the pain - and THEY want to play that game.

So on a short-term basis things appear to be calm; the worst of the worst isn't going to happen. So let's get some of those pips back, aka 150 pip run up to 1.2600.

However the markets are listening to the doctor tell them that while the surgery went well there is a long road ahead in the recovery of the patient. Furthermore even if everything goes right there is still a chance that the patient won't every be able to walk again without pain and a limp.

It doesnt' matter right now - all that matters is the patient isn't going to die. So let us rejoice and savor the moment. Let's ignore the dark clouds on the horizon. For today we party, let's eat drink and be merry!

I hope you get the picture.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #35,407
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:02am Jun 10, 2012 8:02am
Quoting forextraderx
You actually tracked that guy? maybe i'm just a narrow minded ignoramous who can't spell...but, i actuallly never felt very inspired to track such market activity.

for some mystical reason, I just didn't put much stock into his method yielding results that I would envy.

::::: as you said tho... infinate ways to do it.

X
I know exactly what you mean: my reaction was: hogwash...for frack sake, macdonald or walmart do not based their retail site selection and company development on moon cycles. Neither do BP petroleum or IkEA. I have such a visceral reaction against his methods that i cant help but look up a few of his market calls.

However, in the interest of fostering co-operation and non-hostile discussion of ideas...i will refrain from saying negative things about bumapatria moon cycles method. Hey, everybody has their cup of tea: there are people paying for his market services.

wish everybody best of luck.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #35,408
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:03am Jun 10, 2012 8:03am
Quoting fxsport
Well said.



On this front I think we can agree to disagree. Why? Because I don't thing that there is ENOUGH fear in the system yet.

It's very similar to a situation when you get a call at 1 a.m. that your father/mother has been taken to the hospital and you need to come right away, then the caller hangs up.

WHAT! OMG did they have a heart attack, maybe mom fell down the stairs. What happened? You panic and rush right off to the hospital to find out. When you get there you learn that they are currently in surgery but everything is under...

ya...ya.. i hear ya. and you make good points about not seeing enough fear... i like your yardstick, i just believe mine is more accurate for this situation here.

and besides, i'm looking for about 250-500 tops. really, i see 2800 my ideal first "get on here for the road to no where" point.

I don't believe this is a trend change...but I do believe it is likely to be more of a correction than many shorts would care to consider.

I'd be surprised if we didn't break last weeks highs this week.

but i'd also be surprised if in 3-4 months, we didn't make a fresh low of at least 1.2000, or even much lower.

X
  • #35,409
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:05am Jun 10, 2012 8:05am
Quoting Skynet
I know exactly what you mean: my reaction was: hogwash...for frack sake, macdonald or walmart do not based their retail site selection and company development on moon cycles. Neither do BP petroleum or IkEA. I have such a visceral reaction against his methods that i cant help but look up a few of his market calls.

However, in the interest of fostering co-operation and non-hostile discussion of ideas...i will refrain from saying negative things about bumapatria moon cycles method. Hey, everybody has their cup of tea: there are people paying for...
Wait... wait... what? did u just mumble something about other people paying for this type of thing? how do u know? i mean, really?

i am at a total loss for words. look, foster cooperation, i'm down... and kudos to astrology.

but... eh... just hit me back in a PM. but, just. wow.

X
  • #35,410
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:23am Jun 10, 2012 8:23am
EUR/USD Market Recap 08.06.12


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Zfiv_UFCKG...ly-eurusd8.JPG Daily

Yesterday, EUR/USD found resistance at January's low 2012 (orange line) and the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing (EUR/USD Market Recap 07.06.12). Yesterday's daily candle could not close above the 20 SMA and closed in the price range of the prior daily candle (false breakout). Furthermore, market formed a Doji bar or evening star pattern, which led to a sharp drop in price in today's Asian and European session.


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4w1G7S9P2y...-EurUsd122.JPG 1 hour
On the hourly chart we see that the sharp price drop started at 1 a.m. GMT ,right after yesterday's daily doji bar closed. EUR/USD got initially pushed down by the 10 SMA and 20 SMA. The price drop at 1 a.m. triggered the bear flag (blue circle) and market moved to the 100 % fib extension (A-B at C ) and formed the second bear flag (D) at the green trend line and the 100 % fib extension (also 61.80 % fib retracement). In the following, market broke put of the bear flag and resumed it's down trend to the weekly pivot point. (Market respected the resistance in form of a bear, which means that market could not sufficiently bounce back from support-bearish signal). Recently, market respected (touched) the hourly 10 SMA (green circle) at 3 p.m. and broke through it with the next hourly candle. The 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. also looks like a doji (support at the weekly pivot).

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BrHY2jaSbw...n-eurusd25.JPG 5 min
On the 5 min chart we see the different bear flags (circled). After EUR/USD broke out of the first bear flag (blue circle) market went to the 161,80 % fib extension (1-2 at 3) where market formed the second bear flag (red circle). EUR/USD broke out of the bear flag and went to the 100 % fib extension (5-6 at 7). Market found support at the weekly pivot (slightly penetrated but no confirmation, stop fishing below the low of June 6th-blue line) where it formed a kind of ending diagonal ((8-impulsive,9-correction,abcde-ending diagonal). The correction high (9-green line) is the initial target after the ending diagonal terminated, which market reached quickly (directional move). Recently, EUR/USD found resistance at the daily S2 (1.2492-not shown), the prior consolidation (red circle) and particularily the 61.80 % fib retracement (5-e-not shown) at 1.2493.


Have a nice weekend

http://forex-chartanalysis.blogspot.de/
  • #35,411
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:25am Jun 10, 2012 8:25am
Quoting forextraderx
Wait... wait... what? did u just mumble something about other people paying for this type of thing? how do u know? i mean, really?

i am at a total loss for words. look, foster cooperation, i'm down... and kudos to astrology.

but... eh... just hit me back in a PM. but, just. wow.

X
His paid signal service for trading is public knowledge, i beleive...i came across it in one of pipmutt's post(he wasnt being diplomatic).

In fact, i beleive the link to Bumapatria website is part of Bumapatria signature's for every one of his post:

http://timingthemarket.weebly.com/ou...et-timing.html

He charges $300 for his quarterly services.

Apparently, it seems, there are people that will pay a 14 year old for trading services based on moon cycles.....heavens bless capitalism.

I wish i was that smart when i was 14. hahahaha.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #35,412
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:30am Jun 10, 2012 8:30am
This is a daily chart and as one can see crossing over nicely. After that huge down move.


Quoting forextraderx
Yea...i like 2690ish...i'll be looking right around there myself and might even take something short if all looks right....

X
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,413
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:56am Jun 10, 2012 8:56am
Quoting forextraderx
ya...ya.. i hear ya. and you make good points about not seeing enough fear... i like your yardstick, i just believe mine is more accurate for this situation here.

and besides, i'm looking for about 250-500 tops. really, i see 2800 my ideal first "get on here for the road to no where" point.

I don't believe this is a trend change...but I do believe it is likely to be more of a correction than many shorts would care to consider.

I'd be surprised if we didn't break last weeks highs this week.

but i'd also be surprised if in 3-4 months, we...
I think this is a great article and the writer puts it much better than I could:

http://thesensibleguidetoforex.com/2...rces-of-panic/
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #35,414
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:09am Jun 10, 2012 9:09am
Quoting purzel
EUR/USD Market Recap 08.06.12


Daily

Yesterday, EUR/USD found resistance at January's low 2012 (orange line) and the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing (EUR/USD Market Recap 07.06.12).
The above post and chart analysis is what I consider a good example of using technical analysis to justify one's position...whatever that may be.

No where does Purzel make an assertation about where the market intends to go; it's nothing more than great hindsight observations of numbers without any correlation to the fundamentals that occurred that day. No market sentiment or as Joe Friday would have said, "Just the facts mam"
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #35,415
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:15am Jun 10, 2012 9:15am
Quoting fxsport
The above post and chart analysis is what I consider a good example of using technical analysis to justify one's position...whatever that may be.

No where does Purzel make an assertation about where the market intends to go; it's nothing more than great hindsight observations of numbers without any correlation to the fundamentals that occurred that day. No market sentiment or as Joe Friday would have said, "Just the facts mam"
phew. what a relief! and here I was wondering if it was just me, or is this guy not making a single point.

I think it's the weekend. I really do. I'm actually gonna cut out now until the regular crowd stops in. I feel if i continue posting now, i'm just gonna contribute to thread degradation....which I won't do. So... good luck everyone, I'll probably drop by when someone has something to say about where they plan to enter, and where they plan to exit.

Later

X
  • #35,416
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:33am Jun 10, 2012 9:33am
Uh-Ah
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #35,417
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:36am Jun 10, 2012 9:36am
[quote=purzel;5744067]
Yesterday, EUR/USD found resistance at January's low 2012 (orange line) and the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing ( EUR/USD Market Recap 07.06.12). Yesterday's daily candle could not close above the 20 SMA and closed in the price range of the prior daily candle (false breakout). Furthermore, market formed a Doji bar or evening star pattern, which led to a sharp drop in price in today's Asian and European session.


SKYNET: So, are we to take it that when this happens: false breakout that couldnt not closed above a 20sma that is then followed by a reversal with a doji...a drop is to be expected?



1 hour
On the hourly chart we see that the sharp price drop started at 1 a.m. GMT ,right after yesterday's daily doji bar closed. EUR/USD got initially pushed down by the 10 SMA and 20 SMA.

SKYNET: Is that what happened? 10sma and 20sma pushed it? Any more sma push expected in the future?


5 min
.......Market found support at the weekly pivot (slightly penetrated but no confirmation, stop fishing below the low of June 6th-blue line) where it formed a kind of ending diagonal ((8-impulsive,9-correction,abcde-ending diagonal). The correction high (9-green line) is the initial target after the ending diagonal terminated, which market reached quickly (directional move).

SKYNET: What does this tell me about future eur/usd action?


Recently, EUR/USD found resistance at the daily S2 (1.2492-not shown), the prior consolidation (red circle) and particularily the 61.80 % fib retracement (5-e-not shown) at 1.2493.
SKYNET: I guess something....wave movements, + pivot levels + fib levels, after rejections at smas...on top of doji candles.....? hmmm.....not getting the conclusion here.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #35,418
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:38am Jun 10, 2012 9:38am
Quoting forextraderx
phew. What a relief! And here i was wondering if it was just me, or is this guy not making a single point.

I think it's the weekend. I really do. I'm actually gonna cut out now until the regular crowd stops in. I feel if i continue posting now, i'm just gonna contribute to thread degradation....which i won't do. So... Good luck everyone, i'll probably drop by when someone has something to say about where they plan to enter, and where they plan to exit.

Later

x

hahahahaha. Hehehehehehe. Hahahahahaha.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #35,419
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:43am Jun 10, 2012 9:43am
Quoting forextraderx
Wait... wait... what? did u just mumble something about other people paying for this type of thing? how do u know? i mean, really?

i am at a total loss for words. look, foster cooperation, i'm down... and kudos to astrology.

but... eh... just hit me back in a PM. but, just. wow.

X
http://timingthemarket.weebly.com/ou...et-timing.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #35,420
  • Edited 11:40am Jun 10, 2012 9:55am | Edited 11:40am
Quoting forextraderx
phew. what a relief! and here I was wondering if it was just me, or is this guy not making a single point.

I think it's the weekend. I really do. I'm actually gonna cut out now until the regular crowd stops in. I feel if i continue posting now, i'm just gonna contribute to thread degradation....which I won't do. So... good luck everyone, I'll probably drop by when someone has something to say about where they plan to enter, and where they plan to exit.

Later

X
He is in fact making a point and it's an excellent one.
Technicals are a mathematical (sometimes displayed graphically) representation of what has already happened. Without the benefit of the underlying fundamentals and market sentiment, they are nothing else.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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