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  • #654,221
  • Jun 9, 2012 5:33pm Jun 9, 2012 5:33pm
Hey all, I just posted up an article on the euro and why a bullish move won't surprise me much.... here's a link. Comment as you see fit...

http://currencytraderx.wordpress.com/
  • #654,222
  • Jun 9, 2012 5:56pm Jun 9, 2012 5:56pm
Quoting forextraderx
Hey all, I just posted up an article on the euro and why a bullish move won't surprise me much.... here's a link. Comment as you see fit...

http://currencytraderx.wordpress.com/
Interesting read. Could go either way I guess
  • #654,223
  • Edited 6:28pm Jun 9, 2012 6:02pm | Edited 6:28pm
Quoting forextraderx
Hey all, I just posted up an article on the euro and why a bullish move won't surprise me much.... here's a link. Comment as you see fit...

http://currencytraderx.wordpress.com/
yes greece leaving would be good on the eurozone block as a whole - but a key point uve missed out is the after effects on other countries such as spain at risk of leaving which imo will have catostrophic effects.

''Once the greek elections are passed, regardless of the outcome, there will be a great increase in a sense of stability in the fact that we now know how things will likely proceed'' <- can u elaborate on how things will proceed? imho there will be complete chaos and huge vol due to instability and as you rightly point out- markets fear the ''unknown''

all the big players legal teams are working flat out atm on deals done under eu law...clearly indicating that the possibility the whole eurozone might completely collapse exists..! ><

would like to hear any1s counter/comments to my argument.. ^^
  • #654,224
  • Jun 9, 2012 6:23pm Jun 9, 2012 6:23pm
I agree with your argument 100%. The Spanish banks getting a bailout I suspect will make the Spanish people very angry...

Quoting Resent
would like to hear any1s counter/comments to my argument.. ^^
  • #654,225
  • Jun 9, 2012 6:33pm Jun 9, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting Resent
yes greece leaving would be good on the eurozone block as a whole - but a key point uve missed out is the after effects on other countries such as spain at risk of leaving which imo will have catostrophic effects.

''Once the greek elections are passed, regardless of the outcome, there will be a great increase in a sense of stability in the fact that we now know how things will likely proceed'' <- can u elaborate on how things will proceed? imho there will be complete chaos and huge vol due to instability and as you rightly point out- the...
Thanks Resent...this is exactly what I was hoping for. And, you are right, these are very real possibilities.

The MOST BASIC reason why I don't see this happening over the next few weeks is that...welll, there just isn't anyone left to sell at this point.

Not sure if your familiar with the COT reports... but when I compare the net short numbers I see this week to that of other currencies net positions... nothing even comes remotely close. I wish I knew the COT inside and out to give you very specific hard data...most of my interpretation is somewhat interpretive... but, keep in mind traders and investors by and large are a fairly sophisticated group.

Everyone already KNOWS what you've put up. At least the larger players do. They are not all "smart money"...big money is also dumb money... but I just don't know of a single person (ok, I know 1...and he's a good trader...) but other than him... I don't know of any "informed, professional market participant" who is not already short.

As I see if, if the overwhelming fear and now front page headline news of the very real potential of financial catastrophy isn't compelling you to be short RIGHT NOW.... then what will?

I don't believe by and large that most sophisticated market participants are sitting back thinking "well...yea, i know this could all explode, and my millions/billions I have in euro denominated currency and investments could literally fall off the cliff in a few weeks, but, i think i'm gonna sit it out and wait and see..."

NO. I think they decided, for the vast majority, that once the greek elections created such a situation that euro failure COULD be a reality...they divested themselves of a great deal of exposure to it.

And don't take my word for it...just look at the chart, or the increase in net shorts in the euro over the past 5-6 weeks.

It comes down to this: If I felt that many of the more important, market moving participants were of a "lets wait and see here" mentality... I would not feel the way I do.

But, from everything I've seen, heard, etc... the market moving participants are more of the "I see this thing like I see a lead balloon, and i've been getting out and short as much as my broker will let me" mentality.

Blood in the streets...as they say... and all I know is, unless the WORST comes to pass, and is believed by the market as a whole, and this all surfaces over the next 2-3 weeks, and somehow the huge short positions basically decide to get SHORTER... (or a bunch of rich, market moving aliens with new, previously unavailable funds shows up and also sells this thing)... I just think we'll see a move up before really we see anything at 1.22 or lower

In summary: I feel anyone who would have any reason to get short is already short, and even with increased turmoil (should that happen)... I doubt those players will want to commit to even larger, and more exposed, positions short.

Please respond as you see fit.

X
  • #654,226
  • Jun 9, 2012 6:51pm Jun 9, 2012 6:51pm
Quoting forextraderx
Thanks Resent...this is exactly what I was hoping for. And, you are right, these are very real possibilities.

The MOST BASIC reason why I don't see this happening over the next few weeks is that...welll, there just isn't anyone left to sell at this point.


As I see if, if the overwhelming fear and now front page headline news of the very real potential of financial catastrophy isn't compelling you to be short RIGHT NOW.... then what will?

I don't believe by and large that most sophisticated market participants are sitting back thinking...
i think quite a few people have got a lets wait and see mentality- greek elections are on a knife edge and the result could easily swing either way. cautious investors definitely want firm confirmation about the direction of the eurozone.

i understand what youre saying, its like when gold was @1900 , however if spain suddenly turns round tomorrow and says theyre not accepting a bailout, im pretty sure we'll plummet straight through 1.244...
personally if i was short, and spain announced the above,i would greatly increase my position as would a lot of people i would expect..
  • #654,227
  • Jun 9, 2012 6:53pm Jun 9, 2012 6:53pm
Quoting Resent
yes greece leaving would be good on the eurozone block as a whole - but a key point uve missed out is the after effects on other countries such as spain at risk of leaving which imo will have catostrophic effects.

''Once the greek elections are passed, regardless of the outcome, there will be a great increase in a sense of stability in the fact that we now know how things will likely proceed'' <- can u elaborate on how things will proceed? imho there will be complete chaos and huge vol due to instability and as you rightly point out- markets...
I may have not actually addressed your point...so i'm gonna try harder here.

I believe the fear of the worst happening is doing more to drive the current market situation than the fact of the worst happening.

Because, as I mention, many euro zone nations are already deep in recession/depression. some like greece, probably are not gonna get much worse. Are the greek people just gonna quit breathing and Die? of course not.

I think we'll move further down before this shakes out, have no doubt.

But I think for the next few weeks, the fear is just over played. It'll take NEW news of the end of the world coming... and I just don't know what else could come out that will cause MORE fear.

My hypothesis is essentially: at this point, almost any resolution is a good resolution... at least over the next few weeks for a move to 2750-2800+
  • #654,228
  • Jun 9, 2012 8:17pm Jun 9, 2012 8:17pm
Quoting mercy seat
Yes ...

Very nice ...

Congrats ...



I did make it similar ...

+ 249 pips on Friday from the beginning of early Tokyo Session until End of European Session ...



;-|
Thanks mate , and very good preformance by you too
  • #654,229
  • Jun 9, 2012 10:50pm Jun 9, 2012 10:50pm
Eurozone agrees to lend Spain up to 100 billion euros

  • #654,230
  • Jun 9, 2012 10:56pm Jun 9, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting Z Capitals
Eurozone agrees to lend Spain up to 100 billion euros

Ah. the must have read my blog post. At least I won't be drinking Kool Aid alone now...

X
  • #654,231
  • Jun 9, 2012 11:08pm Jun 9, 2012 11:08pm
Quoting Resent
i think quite a few people have got a lets wait and see mentality- greek elections are on a knife edge and the result could easily swing either way. cautious investors definitely want firm confirmation about the direction of the eurozone.

i understand what youre saying, its like when gold was @1900 , however if spain suddenly turns round tomorrow and says theyre not accepting a bailout, im pretty sure we'll plummet straight through 1.244...
personally if i was short, and spain announced the above,i would greatly increase my position as would...
again, valid points. and if spain were to do such, I would probably resume a "neutral view, with a general bias to sell rallies"

It seems the EZ tho has a great track record of putting band aids on arterial bleeds, and the euro trading community has a great track record of pretending that type of thing will work. Or maybe that's just china...ah well...same difference.

and when hope is needed now more than ever, I have faith that delusion will conquer all... at least this week or until 2800+

but, more importantly, I think the market is looking for any excuse to move upwards at least a couple hundered pips before pushing to a new significant low. And this type of thing will fit that "any excuse" criteria.

I know i may be wrong here, and again, i feel a bit exposed taking this position... but I just feel that a fear of loss of paper profits will cause action before more, new, big bad news can again push risk further out of style.

I think this is probably the crux of my thinking here. In the end, i believe hope will act before fear controls it again in the euro, particularly in eur/usd and eur/jpy.

others will believe differently... I just can't shake this feeling that somethign is shifting at least in the near term future, and it's not what most are expecting.

X
  • #654,232
  • Jun 9, 2012 11:50pm Jun 9, 2012 11:50pm
seems like everyone here is wrong....EU is going up....1.25214 now
I have past history of statements to justify what i say.
  • #654,233
  • Jun 9, 2012 11:52pm Jun 9, 2012 11:52pm
Quoting eu_trader
seems like everyone here is wrong....EU is going up....1.25214 now
Up then big move down
  • #654,234
  • Jun 9, 2012 11:57pm Jun 9, 2012 11:57pm
Quoting ibram.forex
Up then big move down

how sure are u?
I have past history of statements to justify what i say.
  • #654,235
  • Jun 9, 2012 11:58pm Jun 9, 2012 11:58pm
Quoting eu_trader
how sure are u?
%50 lol
  • #654,236
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:16am Jun 10, 2012 12:16am
Hi everyone

Having a look at the weekly chart, our upswing should last approx. 3 weeks

target is black circle (around 1.3000)

hope this helps - again all depends on the fundamentals which in the case of the euro right now is a big ? mark!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd weekly.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #654,237
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:17am Jun 10, 2012 12:17am
Quoting Z Capitals
I am expecting a bearish week ahead

(this is just an opinion, please do not trade on this base)
100 billion help might take euro high.....
  • #654,238
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:25am Jun 10, 2012 12:25am
Quoting jmtini
Hi everyone

Having a look at the weekly chart, our upswing should last approx. 3 weeks

target is black circle (around 1.3000)

hope this helps - again all depends on the fundamentals which in the case of the euro right now is a big ? mark!
nice chart.....
  • #654,239
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:55am Jun 10, 2012 12:55am
Quoting jmtini
Hi everyone

Having a look at the weekly chart, our upswing should last approx. 3 weeks

target is black circle (around 1.3000)

hope this helps - again all depends on the fundamentals which in the case of the euro right now is a big ? mark!
I think we are good for a Bull Ride. Unless something catastrophic happens, we are likely to have a very bullish week for EUR
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #654,240
  • Jun 10, 2012 1:14am Jun 10, 2012 1:14am
Greek election are only in 7 days
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