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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #35,041
  • Jun 7, 2012 12:56pm Jun 7, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting neuron
DXY recovery
Yes, I just looking the chart. Potencial H&S retesting 82.50. That could be a bear trap..
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,042
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:00pm Jun 7, 2012 1:00pm
Hi,

It is time for vigilance, i think.

I use Ichimoku for trading. It s long for explain.

We come back on 1.2430+, i think. (for agressive trader only).

Have fun.
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  • #35,043
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:22pm Jun 7, 2012 1:22pm
I don't know what good news came out regarding EU or may be its the lack of horrible news but the VIX has been declining past few days
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  • #35,044
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:27pm Jun 7, 2012 1:27pm
Any news from Europe.

We are waiting Greece poll.

The next chapter is Spain.

Spain will use BCE for LTRO and Germany will not.

Spain vs Germany.

Who is winning ?

Have fun.
  • #35,045
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:32pm Jun 7, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting neuron
I don't know what good news came out regarding EU or may be its the lack of horrible news but the VIX has been declining past few days
Man! thats a perfect EW pattern!
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,046
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:37pm Jun 7, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Man! thats a perfect EW pattern!
it would be interesting to see an EW analysis on future volatility

not sure how valid it would be considering the nature of the index but retrospectively the chart looks like its somewhat predictable
  • #35,047
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:39pm Jun 7, 2012 1:39pm
1H - what do You think?
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  • #35,048
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:45pm Jun 7, 2012 1:45pm
Personally I think the EUR/USD still has some up-side potential to squeeze out the last of the shorts before we see the next down-leg.

There is still a lot of shorts sitting in the market, and I think we could see the 1.2670 level tested next week. But first of all we will need to see a move down to the support 1.2460-1.2500 to gather more buyers at this lower zone, this move down will also attract sellers who believe the down-trend is resuming.
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  • #35,049
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:03pm Jun 7, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting FXe
1H - what do You think?
I see something similar
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  • #35,050
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:04pm Jun 7, 2012 2:04pm
I'm learning patience! Held the 2622 short even through the retest to 2613 and still holding it.

I did take 1/5 profit at 55 first time down which is probably the only thing for not closing the whole trade in a panic as they retested 2613. Holding the rest hoping that is a strong enough double top to roll this baby over finally.

We have retraced for too long

Need some bad Euro data/good US data to get it started again I guess.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #35,051
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:13pm Jun 7, 2012 2:13pm
Quoting neuron
I don't know what good news came out regarding EU or may be its the lack of horrible news but the VIX has been declining past few days
Could be something like this
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,052
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:38pm Jun 7, 2012 2:38pm
Quoting FX-Forecast
Personally I think the EUR/USD still has some up-side potential to squeeze out the last of the shorts before we see the next down-leg.

There is still a lot of shorts sitting in the market, and I think we could see the 1.2670 level tested next week. But first of all we will need to see a move down to the support 1.2460-1.2500 to gather more buyers at this lower zone, this move down will also attract sellers who believe the down-trend is resuming.
Although I am BEARISH your scenario is possible.
Todays daily bar probably close red, but we'll see what colour tomorrow daily bar will be...
if tomorrow NY-close be painted red, probably the same will be next following days.
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #35,053
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:41pm Jun 7, 2012 2:41pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
I'm learning patience! Held the 2622 short even through the retest to 2613 and still holding it.

I did take 1/5 profit at 55 first time down which is probably the only thing for not closing the whole trade in a panic as they retested 2613. Holding the rest hoping that is a strong enough double top to roll this baby over finally.
We have retraced for too long
Need some bad Euro data/good US data to get it started again I guess.
Are you averaging positions, scaling in and out, using your first earned pips to expand your SL range...
It helps a lot and push your BE much above your initial entry point...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #35,054
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:45pm Jun 7, 2012 2:45pm
Thanx to my pal Neuron I could open more my eyes... I really like this. I will follow it step by step.
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,055
  • Edited 3:27pm Jun 7, 2012 3:15pm | Edited 3:27pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Could be something like this
Interesting, maybe Greece elections will shoot the VIX up
  • #35,056
  • Jun 7, 2012 5:46pm Jun 7, 2012 5:46pm
Back and pleased to see the price action while I was away. As I mention in my last post, I saw a head and shoulders forming on the hourly and thought 1.2590 would be the close of that candle. It closed exactly at 1.25889 with a high of 1.26132. I brought out PT's hammer for this one and set a sell limit before leaving. The following hour failed the 1.26000 level (closed at 1.26016) and didn't invalidate the formation.

From there it was south and I'm pleased to see that Tokyo open followed the sentiment and dropped it below 1.2540 in the first 30 minutes of trading. We're now testing the new daily S1 level and maintaining my first TP level at 1.2440. I may move my second TP level from 0.00000 to 0.00080 to make sure I get triggered by my broker (I have to remember the 3 point spread )

Cheers and have a good evening.
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #35,057
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:48pm Jun 7, 2012 6:48pm
Buy now at market (Inverted HS 4H), tp 1.2950, sl 1.2480

forexBOOM
  • #35,058
  • Edited 7:06pm Jun 7, 2012 6:53pm | Edited 7:06pm
Good evening fellows, talk around Cg.

These are my paths reforcing my last chart.

1. Now 1.2525 is done and we are going to break 1.2626

2. 1.2525 is done, pullback and then somewhere above 1.2455 go up to break 1.2626

3. Break 1.2455 and down.

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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,059
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:56pm Jun 7, 2012 6:56pm
Quoting forexboom
Buy now at market (Inverted HS 4H), tp 1.2950, sl 1.2480

forexBOOM
I am in 1.2528 a small one. target 1.256/7 then a need to watch
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #35,060
  • Jun 7, 2012 7:12pm Jun 7, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting forexboom
Buy now at market (Inverted HS 4H), tp 1.2950, sl 1.2480

forexBOOM
Unless all my books and TA courses were useless, an Inverted Head and Shoulders (also known as a Head and Shoulders Bottom) occurs in a downtrend. Last I looked, we were still in an uptrend.

See http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...nd_shoulders_b for more.

Best of luck to you. Max pull back from current price I think will be 1.2552 based on current PA. Also to remember is that London still has not reacted to Bennie's speach. We've seen Asia's reaction and I'm betting London's will be similar.

Time for bed if I don't want to sleep in again tomorrow.
I observe your reality but live my own.
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