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AUD/USD

  • #46,561
  • Jun 7, 2012 10:00am Jun 7, 2012 10:00am
Now short term support will be at 9880
  • #46,562
  • Jun 7, 2012 10:02am Jun 7, 2012 10:02am
Quoting jayjb
please, i am only quoting from a post i saw 2 days back when i entered a long from 0.9650..

seems like dumb people make more money than smart people, no wonder people often say "my boss is a dumb as*"
oh so that was sarcasm ?...my bad
  • #46,563
  • Jun 7, 2012 10:09am Jun 7, 2012 10:09am
there truly is, no "one site"

The factors I gave are truly short of my own amalgamation of a lot of reading from all over, taking a breath and a step back and seeing how the different lights and colors paint an overall picture. And trust me, I when I say I read, I read a lot (curse of an Ivy League Econ education (Robert Mundell ALL THE WAY BABY!!).

I took my newfound conviction and I went long on a Fib confluence support level that mirrored the November 2011 low. The money I made on this trade has been CHA-CHINGING the entire way up and my 2 cents is that it is definitely a trade to keep running. The AUD is CLEARLY worth more than the dollar and will continue to be that way. Even on a longer term horizon the dollar is just downright due for a correction. Now, we all want to make money within the longer movement as swings up and down happen, so if you got bills to pay and women to see then you want to try to lock in profits and re-enter.
  • #46,564
  • Jun 7, 2012 10:12am Jun 7, 2012 10:12am
Quoting Vikingbarde
good going - why long? aud was expected to go down, wasnt it?
i was short ... oops
guess i should follow the trend only ,
can u recommend a site, or info service - for up to date - trend on currencies?

thanks in advance
VB
I find the various trading methods here interesting.
Ive also been long AUD, but that was also around the 96 levels.
I trade more so on fundamentals however with a longer term view.
I did expect AUD to go down but only for as long as people were throwing money into safe havens.
So it may retrace again yet.
  • #46,565
  • Jun 7, 2012 10:43am Jun 7, 2012 10:43am
anyone see 45 as a resistance or am i just seeing things?

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  • #46,566
  • Edited 5:56pm Jun 7, 2012 1:23pm | Edited 5:56pm
Quoting DaddyBear
A morning star has formed on daily chart. Bulls will have upper hand next week.
Quoting jayjb
A morning reversal pattern is only confirmed when the next candle closes near the mid point of the candlestick prior to the morning star.
Quoting jayjb
these 2 days, brain dead monkeys would probably have made 100 to 200 pips easily by clicking buy and earn enough for peanuts and bananas while intelligent sapiens sit on their hands and lose 10% in 2 trades, effectively losing almost 90% of profits from the beginning of time

Are you a brain dead monkey or an intelligent sapient?
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,567
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:11pm Jun 7, 2012 3:11pm
Can someone explain why AUDUSD dropped more than 100 pips today in NY session?

With AUD-employement up, spanish bond sales which were positive, chinese interest rate decision I didn't expect this drop and was caught off guard.

What am I missing.
  • #46,568
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:21pm Jun 7, 2012 3:21pm
Quoting edja00
Can someone explain why AUDUSD dropped more than 100 pips today in NY session?

With AUD-employement up, spanish bond sales which were positive, chinese interest rate decision I didn't expect this drop and was caught off guard.

What am I missing.
Gold is down and no QE
  • #46,569
  • Edited 3:42pm Jun 7, 2012 3:41pm | Edited 3:42pm
On the larger picture, the AUD is up.

In my opinion what stood out in explaining the pop downwards during the session were:
1. AUD/USD was tipped at par in today's session (psychologically significant for support/resistance.

as the price loomed right below parity, the

2. S&P downgrade of spanish banks release with an outlook of "negative"

coupled with

3. Indicators on just about every level were showing signs of a correction downwards. So if you look at (i trade on 1:4 ratio to eliminate noise in price movements) 15M, 1hr, 4hr charts and the daily on top of that the MACD and RSI were all signalling a reverse in trend.

With the indicators showing the need for a pop downwards, price having a hard time justifying parity, and the S&P report release. AUD/USD just ripped the pair downwards and as that happened, people followed suit as a justification for a pop downwards on technicals.

The confluence of these factors (in my view) are what ripped it down. I would say that this was just a hefty log that reignited a flame (risk aversion) that was trying to burn off slowly. So back up on the dollar we go.
  • #46,570
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:49pm Jun 7, 2012 3:49pm
looks like the upward channel on H4 is broken and the last candle is going to close below 5EMA.... I hope its not going too south -_-
  • #46,571
  • Edited 4:11pm Jun 7, 2012 4:08pm | Edited 4:11pm
Personally I think we are going to see tests of the support 9841 and then the big one... 9792 which should halt price.

Typo on chart: long term fib level is 23.6%, short term 50% for the confluence zone.
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  • #46,572
  • Jun 7, 2012 5:47pm Jun 7, 2012 5:47pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Are you a brain dead monkey or an intelligent sapien?
is this a trick question?
  • #46,573
  • Jun 7, 2012 5:49pm Jun 7, 2012 5:49pm
Quoting edja00
Can someone explain why AUDUSD dropped more than 100 pips today in NY session?

With AUD-employement up, spanish bond sales which were positive, chinese interest rate decision I didn't expect this drop and was caught off guard.

What am I missing.
Dollar strengthened when Bernanke made no suggestion of QE3.
  • #46,574
  • Jun 7, 2012 5:50pm Jun 7, 2012 5:50pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
is this a trick question?
This is an advanced question:
Are you a brain dead monkey or an intelligent sapient or both?
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,575
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:06pm Jun 7, 2012 6:06pm
im short an locked from 9986 aiming for 97's any1 else?

aud will follow gold i reckon
  • #46,576
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:09pm Jun 7, 2012 6:09pm
Quoting Silencer
im short an locked from 9986 aiming for 97's any1 else?
I'm long at .9896 stop at BE. May just be a scalp. We'll see.

Nice job on catching that short! Too bad all the movement happens during sleep hours for me.
Shapeshift greed and catch em' off guard
  • #46,577
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:12pm Jun 7, 2012 6:12pm
Quoting Czaray
I'm long at .9896 stop at BE. May just be a scalp. We'll see.

Nice job on catching that short! Too bad all the movement happens during sleep hours for me.
thanks u possibly could be right, the trend is still holding

GL
  • #46,578
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:15pm Jun 7, 2012 6:15pm
I love banana's
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #46,579
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:34pm Jun 7, 2012 6:34pm
Quote
Originally Posted by edja00 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Can someone explain why AUDUSD dropped more than 100 pips today in NY session?

With AUD-employement up, spanish bond sales which were positive, chinese interest rate decision I didn't expect this drop and was caught off guard.

What am I missing.


Bernake's statements made have played a part, but I think their were alot of other factors as well. Firstly, China unexpectely cut interest rates which says they are concerned about growth and with China being the Aussies biggest trading partner that had to have an impact. Moreover, the BPS cut of .75 over the last two meetings, I don't believe was fully priced in and big money understands that it simply not worth what it once was and was looking for a place to sell from .9733 from Sunday. Even with the good fundamental numbers coming out this week and the so-so USD ones, I just don't see it staying to far above 1.0 for very long.

From a techincal perspective , parity was a good place start selling and it did hit 1.000 almost to the pip and sold off which tells me their were alot of big orders. Instituational money was looking for a good place to take profits from the move up and ride it back down to the 96-95 area and I am going to follow them!!
  • #46,580
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:47pm Jun 7, 2012 6:47pm

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