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AUD/USD

  • #45,941
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:44pm Jun 1, 2012 6:44pm
Quoting pt49
5% interest rate is great... sort of.

Assume you are an American with xUSD to invest, you buy xAUD which earns 5%

The AUD drops from 1.07USD to 0.96USD... a loss of 10%

I was pretty good at maths in school, but I don't need knowledge of Maths to work out that our erstwhile American investor just got screwed. Simple arithmatic will do.

He makes 5% interest on an investment that has lost him 10% hard currency value... a 5% drop in 12 months, PLUS he must pay tax on the 5% if he banks it.

He has 2 choices now, he MUST leave his...
Understand, agree, just not my scenario. Fortunately.

Just out of curiosity, do you see it recovering in the future (ie., > .97) ? Or do you envision a lower AUD for the next, say year or two?
  • #45,942
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:24pm Jun 1, 2012 7:24pm
The AUD/USD is in a near perfect position technically to reverse back up.

Irregardless of any fundies at all, I am becoming extremely bullish on the Aussie.

My projected target is 1.06 within 4 months, and a likely breakout to 1.30 or higher within 12 to 18 months.

Could the pinbar on the weeks closing day be the start? Possibly, but probably not. I'm inclined to believe we'll see some consolidation down at this level before the next bullish phase.

Even tho I'm bullish, I'm not buying yet... we could even see 0.9400 before it takes off.
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #45,943
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:03pm Jun 1, 2012 8:03pm
Quoting DaddyBear
A morning star has formed on daily chart. Bulls will have upper hand next week.
A morning reversal pattern is only confirmed when the next candle closes near the mid point of the candlestick prior to the morning star.
  • #45,944
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:09pm Jun 1, 2012 8:09pm
The only weakness in an argument for a higher Aussie is that we depend on growth in China... period. Everything else (EuroZone, FED etc) are incidental to the sheer magnificent fact that Australia is poised to become one of the wealthiest countries in the world.

In my opinion it's not a matter of "if", but "when".

Australia is exporting more raw minerals (iron ore, bauxite, gold, zinc, etc) raw energy (coal, uranium, liquid natural gas) than almost any other country on earth, and they haven't really started digging yet.

Growth in China, South East Asia and India may be slowing down, but it's still over 7% throughout the region (a region that encompasses ¾ or more of the worlds population).

I firmly believe that once the world gets over the current bump in the road (the EuroZone crisis, the FEDS printing presses etc) that China, India and South East Asia will take off at their previously hectic pace, and Australia will see wealth creation the likes of which has seldom been seen anywhere in the world in the past.

The fact is that regardless of the little problems in Europe, America etc, China and India have been set on a path to freedom (in a sense) and once an emerging economy starts on such a path theres no stopping it.

Sheer weight of numbers of people emerging into the middle class will create a consumption machine the likes of which the world has never seen.

I foresee the AUD going to $1.30 within a year or two, and $1.70 within 4 or 5 years. It is as inevitable as the sun rising tomorrow.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #45,945
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:48pm Jun 1, 2012 8:48pm
Quoting jayjb
A morning reversal pattern is only confirmed when the next candle closes near the mid point of the candlestick prior to the morning star.
You may be correct technically, but if I'm buying on that pinbar, I'm not waiting until the following day's bar closes (the following daily bar could be 150 pips further away than the pinbar's close).

The best place to buy on a bullish pinbar is at a 50% pullback with a stop a few pips below the bottom of the pinbar. The next best place to buy is at the close of the pinbar with the stop below the bottom (bigger stop).

The 3rd best place to buy at or above the high of the pinbar.

The best pinbars are those that piece some type of support/resistance. This could be a previous support or resistance area, a dynamic moving average, fib or pivot line etc.

I like to see a pinbar touch or piece an 8EMA... and when I see this one I immediately place a trade. If price subsequently retraces 50% of the bar I often place a second entry.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #45,946
  • Jun 1, 2012 9:10pm Jun 1, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting pt49
The only weakness in an argument for a higher Aussie is that we depend on growth in China... period. Everything else (EuroZone, FED etc) are incidental to the sheer magnificent fact that Australia is poised to become one of the wealthiest countries in the world.

In my opinion it's not a matter of "if", but "when".

Australia is exporting more raw minerals (iron ore, bauxite, gold, zinc, etc) raw energy (coal, uranium, liquid natural gas) than almost any other country on earth, and they haven't really started digging yet.

Growth in China,...
I agrreed

when 1st 4hr then daily reverse pattern, confirmend, will be bull her, when weekly confirmation, will be bull to 1.21 target, have no specific levels to watch for reversal, more so patterns where ever they start.
However until this happen I sell rallies, started 1 10, no reason to stop thus far, selling with caution
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #45,947
  • Edited 9:56pm Jun 1, 2012 9:13pm | Edited 9:56pm
Quoting forextraderx
I can't be wrong, because I didn't make a statement of fact. I asked a question.

My question is that your track record implies you need over a 96% win rate to break even.

This seems like a problem to me, if it is what it appears to be at face value.

So, what is the reality here? or more specifically, how does your system/risk management account for the discrepancy between the data shows, and why that is not relevant or material to how your method will perform in the future?

And now I will make a direct statement... I noticed just as...
Dear Forextraderx,

Thank you for the time you have put into this message and for your honest feedback.

Just to clarify a few things.....

I plan to start a brand new myfxbook account from the start of the financial year as I would like to analyze my own trading over a full financial year via myfxbook, I will then also post some of my trades on the forum for all to see and analyze/criticize.

I really don't see any need to enter into an argument of words on who's right and who's wrong, we are all here to trade and try to make a buck.

I do not ask or wish for anyone to follow my trades or what I do, I don't follow anyone else's either.

Please feel free to comment/criticize/analyze any trades I post in the future, I absolutely have no issue with anyone doing that, I just get a little tired of the negative comments some people make on the forum in regards to my trading account results, at the end of the day if I loose all of my account or I make a mil dollars it will only affect me personally and not anyone else.

Also thanks for your idea about what my signature should be, I have changed it to what you have suggested :-) it wont let me fit the "then piss off" bit though as it exceeds the character numbers allowed.

Thanks again for your time and your feedback, wishing you many green pips and same to all.
  • #45,948
  • Jun 1, 2012 9:43pm Jun 1, 2012 9:43pm
Quoting pt49
The only weakness in an argument for a higher Aussie is that we depend on growth in China... period. Everything else (EuroZone, FED etc) are incidental to the sheer magnificent fact that Australia is poised to become one of the wealthiest countries in the world.

In my opinion it's not a matter of "if", but "when".

Australia is exporting more raw minerals (iron ore, bauxite, gold, zinc, etc) raw energy (coal, uranium, liquid natural gas) than almost any other country on earth, and they haven't really started digging yet.

Growth in China,...
Agree with you. As an Asian, AUD is looking very attractive to invest in when China, Hong Kong, Singapore property prices are soaring to new heights.

I myself is building small long positions and will increase my lot size when it goes below 0.95

I don't know how high AUD will go but it is increasingly attractive as a carry trade vehicle.
  • #45,949
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:52pm Jun 1, 2012 11:52pm
Quoting jayjb
A morning reversal pattern is only confirmed when the next candle closes near the mid point of the candlestick prior to the morning star.
Was this rule set by the Japanese, who invented or improved candlestick, 400 years ago? To me, candlestick has been an Oriental philosophy, which was not supposed to be so rigid like math formulas. I believe you got this concept from an interpretation by a Western "expert". I studied Steve Nison's books and DVD's thoroughly. I was also selected to be a part of his candlestick software beta test program in 2010.

Nison is a pioneer of candlestick charting in Western world. Even he has done a great deal on this subject, he can never be thinking like a Japanese. Other Western authors besides Nison also published books of candlestick charting. They are all treating candlestick like a science subject. I am not saying they are wrong. The fact is that a lot of the rules and interpretations were created by these Western people.

I have made consistent winning trades more frequently recently. How did I make this happen? Simply because I have removed a lot of ordinary concepts like the rule you mentioned from my mind. As to the candlestick, I look into the original meaning not the rules set by some people, who do not understand Oriental culture at all.

When a morning star has such a long and out of proportion shadow and also sits on a downward tend line, can you look into next candle with some imagination?
daddybearforex. com
  • #45,950
  • Jun 2, 2012 12:28am Jun 2, 2012 12:28am
Quoting Daytrader74
Also thanks for your idea about what my signature should be, I have changed it to what you have suggested :-) it wont let me fit the "then piss off" bit though as it exceeds the character numbers allowed.
Thanks again for your time and your feedback, wishing you many green pips and same to all.
remove the commas and slang some words...itll fit

GL to u to daytrader74
  • #45,951
  • Jun 2, 2012 12:54am Jun 2, 2012 12:54am
Quoting DaddyBear
Was this rule set by the Japanese, who invented or improved candlestick, 400 years ago? To me, candlestick has been an Oriental philosophy, which was not supposed to be so rigid like math formulas. I believe you got this concept from an interpretation by a Western "expert". I studied Steve Nison's books and DVD's thoroughly. I was also selected to be a part of his candlestick software beta test program in 2010.

Nison is a pioneer of candlestick charting in Western world. Even he has done a great deal on this subject, he can never be thinking...
Well said! Seriously, on such a long downward trend with such a candle there is going to be a reversal! The buyers won and took ground even with all that movement to follow the trend. This IS a reversal. Has to be. 99.95% confident.

(don't take my advice I've been trading less then a month)

The candle is an indicator. It indicates that there are ALOT of sellers but more buyers.
  • #45,952
  • Jun 2, 2012 12:57am Jun 2, 2012 12:57am
Quoting perrier
Agree with you. As an Asian, AUD is looking very attractive to invest in when China, Hong Kong, Singapore property prices are soaring to new heights.

I myself is building small long positions and will increase my lot size when it goes below 0.95

I don't know how high AUD will go but it is increasingly attractive as a carry trade vehicle.
Thank you for reminding me... and to piggy back on PT49's statement re: commodity export, why the F would any Japanese national with a brain be in the Yen when they could be in the AUD? I understand the USD mentality. They are on the other side of the world. But the Yen dependent know better. Another valid positive for the AUD.

The only thing I would add, is that with respect to real estate, there are a lot of regions of the world where real estate if far too expensive, and it's only a matter of time IMHO, that both industry and individuals tire of the crowded burbs and move elsewhere, thus promoting the creation and expansion of new burbs. Los Angeles comes to mind. What a dump! And yet more populated then ever! But real estate is a whole other matter. Screw the financial hubs. You can buy and sell anything you want anywhere you want as long as you have the money. Warren Buffet (I spit on his grave) comes to mind. Omaha Nebraska. Who the hell lives in Omaha Nebraska??? My point, hopefully, made.
  • #45,953
  • Jun 2, 2012 1:20am Jun 2, 2012 1:20am
Quoting RhemyD
Well said! Seriously, on such a long downward trend with such a candle there is going to be a reversal! The buyers won and took ground even with all that movement to follow the trend. This IS a reversal. Has to be. 99.95% confident.

(don't take my advice I've been trading less then a month)

The candle is an indicator. It indicates that there are ALOT of sellers but more buyers.
Good comment! Trading is an art. Whoever can master this art will be the winner in FX market. After such a long darkness decline, a morning star rises at a distant horizon. Some people would believe the darkness will be over soon. However, some other people believe that unless the moon and Mars move to the same height in the sky, the darkness will stay here forever. Which one makes more sense to you?
daddybearforex. com
  • #45,954
  • Jun 2, 2012 1:25am Jun 2, 2012 1:25am
Quoting pt49
The only weakness in an argument for a higher Aussie is that we depend on growth in China... period. Everything else (EuroZone, FED etc) are incidental to the sheer magnificent fact that Australia is poised to become one of the wealthiest countries in the world.

In my opinion it's not a matter of "if", but "when".

Australia is exporting more raw minerals (iron ore, bauxite, gold, zinc, etc) raw energy (coal, uranium, liquid natural gas) than almost any other country on earth, and they haven't really started digging yet.

Growth in...
I believe the inflated dollar will be the killer blow for the emerging markets, as
long as they keep using the USD in their export/import currency.

Their export, will become expensive and they will import inflation, which will kill their domestic market advantages of cheap labour and creates other serious internal problems like unemployment.

The Growth model that the new French President is calling for is what the fed chairman was doing since 2008 which is printing money with low interest rate which spiked the inflation. Therefore, if Euro joined the US we are going for a long depression and wars.

Also, it's worth to note that China has signed unilateral agreements with Turky, Japan, and Russia to use their own currencies in their tradings with each other and get rid of the dollar. that is my assessment for the situation and i could be totally wrong.
  • #45,955
  • Jun 2, 2012 1:26am Jun 2, 2012 1:26am
Am I the only person here who isn't excited about buying for a major trend reversal on Monday morning.
  • #45,956
  • Jun 2, 2012 1:55am Jun 2, 2012 1:55am
Quoting fosking
Am I the only person here who isn't excited about buying for a major trend reversal on Monday morning.
Add me to the list. If you read my earlier post, I don't think it's time to buy yet.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #45,957
  • Jun 2, 2012 2:26am Jun 2, 2012 2:26am
Quoting fosking
Am I the only person here who isn't excited about buying for a major trend reversal on Monday morning.
seems like Oanda clients are long

http://i1264.photobucket.com/albums/...Dpositions.jpg
  • #45,958
  • Jun 2, 2012 2:32am Jun 2, 2012 2:32am
Quoting neuron
seems like Oanda clients are long

http://i1264.photobucket.com/albums/...Dpositions.jpg
Same percentage as FXCM who are usually wrong.
  • #45,959
  • Jun 2, 2012 2:59am Jun 2, 2012 2:59am
Quoting DaddyBear
Good comment! Trading is an art. Whoever can master this art will be the winner in FX market. After such a long darkness decline, a morning star rises at a distant horizon. Some people would believe the darkness will be over soon. However, some other people believe that unless the moon and Mars move to the same height in the sky, the darkness will stay here forever. Which one makes more sense to you?
None of my business if you trade based on feelings and guts.

Me? I prefer to trade fundamentally and wait for a technical entry. Which I do not see with potential morning star. If I had ignored the basics of price action and traded them without confirmation, I would be nothing but a gambler with odds stacked against me.

If you think technicals are overwhelmingly bullish, let you tell you it is fundamentals and sentiments that move the markets. Technicals only give you the magic number to enter and exit.

By the way, profit taking. Ponder upon it.
  • #45,960
  • Jun 2, 2012 3:00am Jun 2, 2012 3:00am
anyone here use CFTC COT reports for their analysis?

http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/publi...atorynotes.pdf

http://i1264.photobucket.com/albums/...TC_COT_AUD.jpg
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