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  • #2,001
  • Jun 7, 2012 5:45am Jun 7, 2012 5:45am
Shorted UJ at 79.41, SL at 79.53
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,002
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:09am Jun 7, 2012 6:09am
Quoting Balhana
Shorted UJ at 79.41, SL at 79.53
Sink for me!!

UJ 10M
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,003
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:46am Jun 7, 2012 6:46am
Quoting Balhana
Sink for me!!

UJ 10M
Closed 2/2 at BE+1. Capped by both supply and demand.
  • #2,004
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:58am Jun 7, 2012 6:58am
Quoting Balhana
Closed 2/2 at BE+1. Capped by both supply and demand.
Re-entered at 79.40
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ 5M 01 (2).jpg Size: 210 KB
  • #2,005
  • Jun 7, 2012 7:23am Jun 7, 2012 7:23am
Quoting Balhana
Re-entered at 79.40
Stopped out at 79.53 for -13 pips (-26 pips in total). Was implusive....
  • #2,006
  • Jun 7, 2012 8:46am Jun 7, 2012 8:46am
I scalped a few pips in the end, Chinese rate cut put an end to the Yen bearish setups.

Was focussed on UJ and missed this obvious buyers trap in EURSEK.
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  • #2,007
  • Jun 7, 2012 8:47am Jun 7, 2012 8:47am
Shorted AJ @ 79.66, SL @ 79.90.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,008
  • Jun 7, 2012 9:08am Jun 7, 2012 9:08am
Quoting Balhana
Shorted AJ @ 79.66, SL @ 79.90.
Closed 2/3 at 79.43 for +46 pips and moved SL to 79.80
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ 5M 01.jpg Size: 113 KB
  • #2,009
  • Jun 7, 2012 9:22am Jun 7, 2012 9:22am
Quoting Balhana
Closed 2/3 at 79.43 for +46 pips and moved SL to 79.80
Closed the remainder at 79.10 for +56 pips (+102 pips).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,010
  • Jun 7, 2012 10:40am Jun 7, 2012 10:40am
Bought AU @ 0.9931, SL @ 0.9920
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,011
  • Jun 7, 2012 11:05am Jun 7, 2012 11:05am
Quoting Balhana
Bought AU @ 0.9931, SL @ 0.9920
Closed 1/2 at 0.9941 for +10 pips. Moved SL to BE just ago.
A filthy scalper...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,012
  • Jun 7, 2012 11:07am Jun 7, 2012 11:07am
Quoting lovejoy80
Short UJ this morning...

Compression leading into supply. Price then formed a M1 QM and H&S as confirmation, similar setup on most of the Yen majors this morning, only had time to review UJ quickly and got in just in time (would have liked to have added on the QM right shoulder).
I scaled out of this trade as price didn't react as I expected it too.

First price was rejected multiple times from the M5 demand so I cut 60%, it should have pushed through quicker than this if it was heading down.

Next price didn't react materially at the supply zone above so I cut another 20% and then finally price broke the H&S neckline and China had an interest rate cut (bullish for risk sentiment) thus I cut the rest for small +0.44R win.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,013
  • Jun 7, 2012 11:10am Jun 7, 2012 11:10am
Quoting Balhana
Closed 1/2 at 0.9941 for +10 pips. Moved SL to BE just ago.
A filthy scalper...
Stopped out at BE. Moved SL too early. I didn't see the demand just below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,014
  • Jun 7, 2012 11:10am Jun 7, 2012 11:10am
Shorted Dax based on the FTB and supporting comments from Bernanke. +1.76R
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  • #2,015
  • Jun 7, 2012 11:18am Jun 7, 2012 11:18am
Quoting Balhana
Stopped out at BE. Moved SL too early. I didn't see the demand just below.
Look at the chart. How do I feel now?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 1M 04.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #2,016
  • Jun 7, 2012 11:43am Jun 7, 2012 11:43am
Took NU short on a retace of the 1H bearish engulfing bar.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,017
  • Jun 7, 2012 12:37pm Jun 7, 2012 12:37pm
Quoting Balhana
Took NU short on a retace of the 1H bearish engulfing bar.
Cut the trade at BE. Too tired... Need to go to bed.
  • #2,018
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:03pm Jun 7, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting lovejoy80
That comes down to personality. For example the traditional breakout algo has that profile - low win rate (circa 30-40%) but high R. The system will have a positive expectancy over the long term but of course with such a low win rate short term equity curve fluctuations are significant.

Personality drives what we feel comfortable with which drives confidence. Most people can't accept long losing periods (me included) because it goes against our mindset and what we've experiencd in the past (being right more often that wrong is a good thing - school...
Great Post
  • #2,019
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:25pm Jun 7, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting 5.25
I personally like to see a proven level or heavily consolidated area to form before a false breakout. The GBPNZD D1 chart is an example. Or to see a newly formed swing low based on the previous (AUDUSD D1 chart attached). The bar however MUST close within the previous swing low/high for it to be valid.
Hi Mark

Just a little follow up from what I considered a swing low false breakout on the AUDUSD FB chart.

How would you analyse the daily gold chart? A valid FB under your criteria?

The thread just get better!

Thanks

Tomek
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 359_gold d1.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #2,020
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:40pm Jun 7, 2012 3:40pm
Quoting 5.25
Hi Mark

Just a little follow up from what I considered a swing low false breakout on the AUDUSD FB chart.

How would you analyse the daily gold chart? A valid FB under your criteria?

The thread just get better!

Thanks

Tomek
I'd actually forgotten about AU, it did what I expected in that price had to come down again before rising, I'd put it to the back of my mind what with a ton of other stuff going on.

Yes I liked Gold a lot and am short Gold at the moment. It was the first thing I saw when was going through my charts this morning - I was looking for a discounted entry but missed it when was busy with some other trades, so instead I went short after Bernanke's speech.

I like the weekly and monthly picture on this chart too so am trying to hold this short if price behaves, but holding trades based on HTF charts isn't really my thing so it might be a case of getting out and look to get in again if a suitable opportunity presents itself.
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