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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #34,801
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:28am Jun 7, 2012 2:28am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Market seems to be undecided at the moment. Probably will range til helicopter Ben speaks. Focus is on BOE and jobless numbers early in trading day before helicopter burn your @#& Bernanke lands his helicopter on Capitol hill. Yen seems to be weakest currency today and GBP strongest.
Yep

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,802
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:30am Jun 7, 2012 2:30am
Hi Everybody.
Looking on my chart this morning I can see first major resistance for today at 1.26200, and if broken next one 1.26600...
Is anybody considering SHORTING at those levels?

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  • #34,803
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:32am Jun 7, 2012 2:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep

Attachment
Definitely looks like risk on today. I looked at all my charts last night and it seems like every pair I looked at had possible extremely strong S/R levels at/or near the 38.2% fib retrace.
  • #34,804
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:38am Jun 7, 2012 2:38am
Fast forward this vid to 1:10

... and everyone is worried about violence on the streets of Athens?
How about between the politicians themselves?

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,805
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:39am Jun 7, 2012 2:39am
Market talk: According to Barclays the short squeeze could be on if 1.2650 is breached. If breached it will probably run PA up to around the 1.2820 level.
  • #34,806
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:41am Jun 7, 2012 2:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
Fast forward this vid to 1:10

... and everyone is worried about violence on the streets of Athens?
How about between the politicians themselves?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjUvAiPfzXQ
  • #34,807
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:41am Jun 7, 2012 2:41am
Quoting halkins
Hi Everybody.
Looking on my chart this morning I can see first major resistance for today at 1.26200, and if broken next one 1.26600...
Is anybody considering SHORTING at those levels?

Attachment
meh
redsword11, IfMyante, KennyZ, bumapatria, JohnPaul77 made my trading style.
  • #34,808
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:43am Jun 7, 2012 2:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes there is a chance that Benny's testimony will disappoint markets. Such a disappointment will certainly turn things around and bring back the USD bulls and cause a risk-off sentiment in equities.

However, Benny is not about to dash all hopes. He will leave QE3 on the table as an option even though I don't believe he will actually implement it.

As long as he says it is on the table, the market will not have any incentive to keep buying USDs so the short squeeze will probably proceed before the next major move down to the very low 1.20's or...
I know it might be a tough (or even silly) question (and itīs of course my own responsibility in the end) but if you were me, would you still close open shorts from 1,24s and maybe try later to get in on higher levels...?

I am looking like an idiot now, and I apologize for bugging you with this.. but I feel bad about this mistake and would like to avoid a panic move that I regret afterwards... - Personally I would try to weather this storm (up to ~1,285x I still have air), but the losses get bigger and you never know... so at least I wanted to ask for your advice, PT. - Thanks in advance, Sir!
  • #34,809
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:43am Jun 7, 2012 2:43am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Market talk: According to Barclays the short squeeze could be on if 1.2650 is breached. If breached it will probably run PA up to around the 1.2820 level.
I'm already prepared for it. Actually I fully expect it to happen.


Quoting PipTrapper
I have adjusted my sell limit entries.

1. Moved sell limit from 1.2623 to 1.2667 (38.2% fibo)
2. Created new sell limit order at 1.2784 (50% fibo)

I have done this because I smell another short squeeze brewing before the manure hits the fan.

I am not confident enough to buy into it. I am just being my usual cautious and conservative sniper.

E/U H4
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,810
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:48am Jun 7, 2012 2:48am
Goldman Sachs chief economist says FED QE3 likely as soon as end of June.

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Hmmm. Last I checked they run the show in U.S!
  • #34,811
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:49am Jun 7, 2012 2:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm already prepared for it. Actually I fully expect it to happen.
You prepare to go long or ride it out and add a short?
  • #34,812
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:54am Jun 7, 2012 2:54am
Quoting berky
I know it might be a tough (or even silly) question (and itīs of course my own responsibility in the end) but if you were me, would you still close open shorts from 1,24s and maybe try later to get in on higher levels...?

I am looking like an idiot now, and I apologize for bugging you with this.. but I feel bad about this mistake and would like to avoid a panic move that I regret afterwards... - Personally I would try to weather this storm (up to ~1,285x I still have air), but the losses get bigger and you never know... so at least I wanted...
Well, things don't look good for the downside right now. I don't know how leveraged you are so it is hard for me to put myself in your shoes.

However, I can tell you that I have often let underwater trades ride for as much as 500 pips without worry. This is because the lot size was small and within my money management tolerance.

Whether or not you take the loss has to be your decision. What I can offer is a suggestion. If you do not want to take the loss on the whole thing and you fear the consequences of holding on to the trade, at the very least reduce the exposure by one of the following methods.

1. Take a loss on a portion of it to bring it down to the point where it no longer makes you nervous should the short squeeze come.

2. Hedge the trade with a long position on another risk asset pair such as the AUD/USD
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,813
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:55am Jun 7, 2012 2:55am
E/J just crossed over monthly pivot of 99.95 and is now above 100.00.
  • #34,814
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:58am Jun 7, 2012 2:58am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
You prepare to go long or ride it out and add a short?
Ride it out and add 2 shorts.

If Benny's speech creates a feeding frenzy on risk assets, I may enter a long position manually.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,815
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:59am Jun 7, 2012 2:59am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
E/J just crossed over monthly pivot of 99.95 and is now above 100.00.
Glad I cashed out the remaining portion of that position. It was a nice ride down from 102
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,816
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:03am Jun 7, 2012 3:03am
Quoting berky
I know it might be a tough (or even silly) question (and itīs of course my own responsibility in the end) but if you were me, would you still close open shorts from 1,24s and maybe try later to get in on higher levels...?

I am looking like an idiot now, and I apologize for bugging you with this.. but I feel bad about this mistake and would like to avoid a panic move that I regret afterwards... - Personally I would try to weather this storm (up to ~1,285x I still have air), but the losses get bigger and you never know... so at least I wanted...

If you don't want to take the loss or hedge on another pair, you could always open a long position on the same pair/same size and if it moves positive, you can move to it BE. Leave it there til price eventually declines back to that level to cash you out at BE on it's way eventually down to your low short position. Just remember that at some point you may have to eat the loss if PA never comes back to these levels for awhile. At least you would've stopped the potential bleeding. Makes alot more sense than hanging on to a losing position up to 1.285x. Just a thought.
  • #34,817
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:04am Jun 7, 2012 3:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
Glad I cashed out the remaining portion of that position. It was a nice ride down from 102
Me too buddy.
  • #34,818
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:12am Jun 7, 2012 3:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
(...)
However, I can tell you that I have often let underwater trades ride for as much as 500 pips without worry. This is because the lot size was small and within my money management tolerance.
Well TP, it looks like you keep you position open for weeks or even months, waiting to close it either on green pips or BE, isn't it?
Isn't a big portion of you potential profit "eaten" by swap points afterall?
And also this requires "managing all of them", maybe 10-20 position at the same time (I mean all as a group of trades, not each one separately)...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #34,819
  • Edited 3:34am Jun 7, 2012 3:23am | Edited 3:34am
Quoting halkins
Well TP, it looks like you keep you position open for weeks or even months, waiting to close it either on green pips or BE, isn't it?
Isn't a big portion of you potential profit "eaten" by swap points afterall?
And also this requires "managing all of them", maybe 10-20 position at the same time (I mean all as a group of trades, not each one separately)...
I always close on green pips simply because of my averaging methods. Any short trades I take below 1.46 and recently below 1.34 are scale-in trades which are smaller in size than the master shorts at the two above noted levels. I also take partial profit several times from each entry.

As for profits being eaten up by swap, on the contrary, I earn swap from my E/U shorts.

Also I have never had 10 to 20 positions opened simultaneously. The most I have ever had was 8 and currently I have 5 shorts on E/U ranging from 1.4647 to 1.2773

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,820
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:41am Jun 7, 2012 3:41am
According to EU official there is no rescue plan for Spanish banks. Direct payments to banks using ESM/EFSF is NOT possible.
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