EurAnalysis

trust me thats going to be ur big edge in the market and u will be way ahead of the crowd.

compare these two charts and see how precise the entry signals on pitchfork and how much it able act as a leading indicator for price action.please do refer to the charts i have posted since yesterday or day before.probably it may be my perception bias but its scary .on the first attempt price have reach to exact point of trigger line and gone back and where as price on channel broken which was a false signal on the first attempt.
need more work on it and more testing.

Nice article and good for reading to understand why Greece will start issuing I.O.U.'s in July - prior to the rioting that will start.

Here is another one, about why a 'flight to safety' to the US $ is an illusion.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/page...craig-roberts/

Paul Craig Roberts Secretary of the Treasury under Reagan: The number in the re line is the US banks' derivative bets. Last two paragraphs:

"US banks’ derivative bets of $230 trillion, concentrated in five banks, are 15.3 times larger than the US GDP. A failed political system that allows unregulated banks to place uncovered bets 15 times larger than the US economy is a system that is headed for catastrophic failure. As the word spreads of the fantastic lack of judgment in the American political and financial systems, the catastrophe in waiting will become a reality.

Everyone wants a solution, so I will provide one. The US government should simply cancel the $230 trillion in derivative bets, declaring them null and void. As no real assets are involved, merely gambling on notional values, the only major effect of closing out or netting all the swaps (mostly over-the-counter contracts between counter-parties) would be to take $230 trillion of leveraged risk out of the financial system. The financial gangsters who want to continue enjoying betting gains while the public underwrites their losses would scream and yell about the sanctity of contracts. However, a government that can murder its own citizens or throw them into dungeons without due process can abolish all the contracts it wants in the name of national security. And most certainly, unlike the war on terror, purging the financial system of the gambling derivatives would vastly improve national security."

not so sure...until Uncle Ben speaks tomorrow

Fed Must Be Ready: Williams

Yellen Argues for More Fed Easing, Cites Europe Risk

Quote:
Yellen's views carry great weight with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, and her comments suggest the Fed may be close to taking more easing steps this month in response to ongoing housing problems, a weak jobs market and the escalating euro zone crisis.
I think the scene is set for risk on so Euro, Aussie, gold, FTSE, SPX all should rise.


Ben speaking tomorrow so markets may fly high at least until then. all the ground work made for him to indicate tomorrow that Fed will print in some way or other.


Seems last week's drama was just to create an excuse for these guys to print.



Suddenly Germany also seem to be ok to fund bankrupt Spanish banks without bailout restrictions.


Who cares what rating agencies say these days anyway. Last week they downgraded UK rating - since then GBP and FTSE both have been rallying.


After all this is an election year and incumbents can't take any risks. They'll do whatever to float risk rally higher until the US elections. We may get dips and volatility on the way. But that will be used as an excuse for more Central Bank interventions.

great post.....bigger accounts usually lead to even bigger greed, hurry, bigger losses and bigger regrets.

Waiting for wave IV or confirmation to get long.

Lower

I don't know anything about Eliot Wave. Do you see EW form everyday? I thought those things were rare. Seems effective..

Also, if the economy in Europe sucks, why go long on the Euro? (Unless it's for a day trade.

See my live trade

Hope 20 to 200 usd make as early as possible...

http://www.forexfactory.com/kibrul

i missed aud moves

I've been watching the supply and demand seminars by Sam Seiden. Coupled with lines of support and resistance, I feel like I've spotted a trade on the H4 chart. everything is marked by tred lines.

Entry: 1.2660 (Vey conservative as 1.2622 is strong resistance)
Exit: 100pips (After breaking this support price continued lower than 1.2300, 100pips is %30 of this, sounds reasonable to me.)
Stop loss: 1.2693, Just about area of Supply (1.2660-1.2688).



Addition: PLEASE TELL ME WHAT YOU ALL THINK!!!! especially if you use the same supply, demand strategy! Thanks!!

morning
my plans for today
buy limit @ 1.2490 stop loss @ 1.2450 target 1.2620
and if i get to the profit target the BIG sell will start at 1.2620
green pips for all

got my sell limits in

one at 1.2595 , stop 1.271

and a bigger one at 1.2615 with tight stop at 1.2650

largest at 1.2680, stop at 1.2671

edit: might remove the 2595 and enter if price action starts showing down

Pip you are a trader that I respect because the high degree of knowledge on news and technical.i hope can learn more here.

my view

trend still up.but as for now i have resistance at 2582.so i will waiting for retracement at 2500 for buy entry.

my ultimate target is 2633.

Daily close = Open

4H Double Top with Evening Star Formation

Good morning all

WooHooo It's risk-on... The Central Banks have come to save the day with massive intervention rhetoric. So, all is well now and everybody can go back to buying the dips with a sense of security that the boys with all the power have their back. Right? Right?

Wrong...

This is a false sense of security. No amount of printing by any central bank is going to fix the European debt crisis or the US fiscal cliff problem. It is just an illusion. Don't be fooled. As quick as risk assets have risen, they will fall five times quicker on the first sign of fear. Markets are still jumpy and no amount of BS from the talking heads is going to change that. There are still several risk events ahead of us.

Today we have a Spanish 10 Year Bond auction.
Later Benny will be testifying to the Joint economic committee
There is still a big question mark on how the Spanish banks are going to be recapitalized

Here's the big one... The Greek elections are on 17th June. How come the market has lost focus of this? Well actually the market hasn't... only the media has. Remember that what happens in Greece may well set the tone for the rest of the weaker EZ states. Spain and Italy (oh yes Italy... we've yet to get to that one) are a bigger problem than Greece and their day of judgement is yet to come.

Anyway, I could go on all day about this crap, but it's pointless. Sufficed to say that there are many more downside risks than anything that could instill confidence in any of the major economies. Europe is the drag right now and so the E/U is to be sold on rallies. Right now we are in a corrective move upwards. Where will this correction take us? How high? That's where we need to rely on technicals and try to gauge the market sentiment.

Right now sentiment is slightly bullish. Risk assets are having a little holiday full of hopium based on:
- Draghi's comments that some of the council members wanted to cut rates yesterday
- Janet Yellen's comments last night that the Fed stands ready to act
- The EU's proposal yesterday that the ESM or EFSF may be able to recapitalize the Spanish banks directly as long as Spain is responsible for it via an off-balance sheet pledge.

The above are all highly speculative. None of them mean anything. It's all rhetoric to mask the real problems that cannot be solved by the above... and the drama continues.

Later today Benny will most likely re-affirm what Janet Yellen said last night. However, I also expect him to make it very clear to the committee that the Fed cannot fix the problems. It is up to congress to fix it. Easing more will do nothing but buy some more time and worsen the situation in the real economy.

So, where do we stand on the charts?
Resistance comes in between 1.2580 and 1.2623 (last week's high which proved to be very tough resistance). There are most likely a few offers spread out in this zone. After that we look to 1.2670 to 1.2700 area (around the 38.2% retrace of the move down since 1st May). There are too many variables in the market's sentiment to try and gauge exactly where we're going to run into a brick wall before the next fall. Heck, we could fall from here. That is why I'm not buying this pair. The risks substantially remain to the downside and I'm no getting sucked in. I will prefer to sell into the rallies but I'm going to be conservative about it. For now I have one sell limit order at 1.2618 I may move it later depending on PA and further developments in sentiment.

Here's my H4 chart. Trade safe today.

E/U H4

Option Expries for today @ 14:00 GMT


1.2525 - 500M
1.2500
1.2420
1.2400 - 250M

Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
June 7, 2012 at 05:56 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2520/30 and 1.2485/95./ Offers 1.2585/00, Buy stops up through 1.2600 and1.2625, tech res 1.2665 (38.2% 1.3275/1.2285)

GBP/USD: Offers 1.5500/10, tech res 1.5525/30 (1.5526 May 31 high). Bids 1.5435/45

EUR/GBP: Tech supp 0.8075/80 and 0.8050/55, sell stops through 0.8050. Offers from 0.8130 up to 0.8150

USD/JPY: Offers 79.40/50 and 79.80/00(exporters), buy stops through 80.00 and 80.15 (80.15 100 day MA) ahead of more offers 80.50/60. Bids 79.00/10 and 78.50/65

EUR/JPY: Tech support/bids 99.50/60 and 98.90/00. Offers 99.80/00 buy stops just above 100.00 (also 20 day MA) and through 100.35.

AUD/JPY Buy stops up through 79.20, tech res 79.50/60, Bids 78.30/40

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/35

USD/CHF: Tech res 0.9580/90, Tech sup 0.9525/35 and 0.9500/.10

AUD/USD: Offers 0.9960/70 talk of buy stops now through0.9975 ahead of offers 0.9990/00, buy stops just above ahead of tech res at 1.0025 (50% 1.0470/0.9575) and 1.0060/70. Expected bids 0.9925/35 (earlier resistance) ahead of tech sup 0.9875/85

EUR/AUD: tech supp 1.2595/00 (1.2596 100 day MA) stops just below ahead of further tech sup 1.2570/75