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  • #1,981
  • Jun 6, 2012 8:53am Jun 6, 2012 8:53am
Entered sell limit order at 1.2518 initial stop loss was 1.2538 (20 pips) TP 1.2470 (48 pips). Was not around when price hit my order, as you can see price missed my order first time by couple of pips and on second attempt my order was filled. If I was around I would have cancelled my order after first miss, but got a bit lucky this time.
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,982
  • Jun 6, 2012 9:10am Jun 6, 2012 9:10am
H&S on GU 30M. RS in progress. When/how to enter....?
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  • #1,983
  • Jun 6, 2012 9:26am Jun 6, 2012 9:26am
Quoting Balhana
H&S on GU 30M. RS in progress. When/how to enter....?
Took a short at 1.5476. SL @ 1.5490.
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  • #1,984
  • Jun 6, 2012 9:32am Jun 6, 2012 9:32am
Quoting Balhana
Took a short at 1.5476. SL @ 1.5490.
One lot only, so SL to BE+1.
  • #1,985
  • Jun 6, 2012 9:48am Jun 6, 2012 9:48am
Quoting alifari
Entered sell limit order at 1.2518 initial stop loss was 1.2538 (20 pips) TP 1.2470 (48 pips). Was not around when price hit my order, as you can see price missed my order first time by couple of pips and on second attempt my order was filled. If I was around I would have cancelled my order after first miss, but got a bit lucky this time.
Nice trade!!
  • #1,986
  • Jun 6, 2012 9:49am Jun 6, 2012 9:49am
Quoting lovejoy80
I've started running 'learning quizzes' on my forum as members find it a useful way to learn to apply the material. At the moment we're focussing on buyer/seller traps and false breakouts. Here are a sample of the current setups that I've given members to analyse. If you want to learn and think you know what makes for a great FB setup, a tradable one* and one to pass on then have a go for yourself...

[size="1"]* A tradable setup is one that is clearly not 'A+' but one that if traded over a sufficient period has a positive expectancy. Great...
Here were my thoughts and the outcome for these potential FB setups (I've already been over the second setup).

Note how we aren't looking mechanically at these setups and by mechanically I mean 'it broke a previous significant swing by x pips therefore we do this' - looking at the true price action and objectively analysing a setup is the ONLY way to become a very successful price action trader.
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  • #1,987
  • Jun 6, 2012 10:05am Jun 6, 2012 10:05am
Quoting Balhana
One lot only, so SL to BE+1.
Moved SL to 1.5469 (BE+7)
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  • #1,988
  • Jun 6, 2012 10:20am Jun 6, 2012 10:20am
Quoting lovejoy80
This setup pretty much summarises how a retail trader thinks compared to a professional.

Balhana got it spot on with his analysis ... that is TRUE price action. A professional price action trader can objectively look at that chart and understand 1. the compression leading into the support, 2. the supply consumption that occurred through the BUOB bar high and 3. The sellers trap that was the spike below the support.

Because they understand this price action they know the order-flow that is very likely to occur after and thus where price will...
Another recent example to highlight the difference between how a professional thinks compared to the typical retail novice.

This is a daily and weekly chart of CHFJPY - it's not a pair I look at myself. This was actually someone's analysis of this setup:

1. Pin bar at a good location fighting a big downtrend.
2. It's good it closed above the BRN of 80.00
3. But I'm not taking it because the close was poor and the FLR is too close which makes management of the setup tricky.

Not once did they look at this how a professional would look at which would be:

1. Very significant previous swing on both weekly and daily.
2. Clear false break below this swing on both TF's.
3. Thus a clear sellers trap at essentially a major double bottom area on on the daily and a significant SR area on weekly.

The former is looking to enter when price breaks the high with a SL below the low...this is why it makes trade management tricky.

The latter is looking to enter straight away (after all they know what price should do and don't need to wait for anything else) and has a SL just below the former swing low because they know price should not breach this area - thus they have good 'value' in the trade.

Notice the difference...the professional is looking at the setup objectively with an understanding of the order flow that has occurred in forming this setup and thus they know what is very likely to happen next. The retail trader is reviewing the setup mechanically with a clear lack of knowledge of what that bar represents.

Hopefully some of this is starting to make sense to folks, because having a thought process along the former is what you need to get away from if you want to stand a chance of being a successful price action trader.
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  • #1,989
  • Jun 6, 2012 10:26am Jun 6, 2012 10:26am
Quoting alifari
Entered sell limit order at 1.2518 initial stop loss was 1.2538 (20 pips) TP 1.2470 (48 pips). Was not around when price hit my order, as you can see price missed my order first time by couple of pips and on second attempt my order was filled. If I was around I would have cancelled my order after first miss, but got a bit lucky this time.
Nice outcome - sometimes not being around for a trade can be a good thing! lol.

Why take the what was essentially the second time back to that supply and not the first though?
  • #1,990
  • Jun 6, 2012 10:28am Jun 6, 2012 10:28am
Quoting Balhana
Moved SL to 1.5469 (BE+7)
Stopped out at BE+7. One lot is diffciult to manage...
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  • #1,991
  • Jun 6, 2012 11:27am Jun 6, 2012 11:27am
It is now being compressed down on 1M, and then liquidity?

GBP/AUD 4H and 1M Charts
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  • #1,992
  • Jun 6, 2012 12:24pm Jun 6, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Why take the what was essentially the second time back to that supply and not the first though?
Actually the sell limit order was placed overnight and by the time I opened my charts order was filled on the second time back, as the first time back price missed my order by 2 pips.
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,993
  • Jun 6, 2012 12:38pm Jun 6, 2012 12:38pm
Quoting Balhana
It is now being compressed down on 1M, and then liquidity?

GBP/AUD 4H and 1M Charts
Bought GA at 1.5610 and set TP at 1.5640. SL to BE+1.
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  • #1,994
  • Jun 6, 2012 12:42pm Jun 6, 2012 12:42pm
Quoting Balhana
Bought GA at 1.5610 and set TP at 1.5640. SL to BE+1.
Closed 1/3 at 1.5630 for +20 pips just for peace of mind.
  • #1,995
  • Jun 6, 2012 12:55pm Jun 6, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting Balhana
Closed 1/3 at 1.5630 for +20 pips just for peace of mind.
Closed one more at the same price for +20 pips.
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  • #1,996
  • Jun 6, 2012 1:14pm Jun 6, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting Balhana
Closed one more at the same price for +20 pips.
Closed the remainder at 1.5640 for +30 pips (+70 pips in total).

Took longer than expected.
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  • #1,997
  • Jun 6, 2012 1:30pm Jun 6, 2012 1:30pm
Looks like a good area (77.00-77.27) to go short on CAD/JPY, but need to go to bed. It is 3:30 am in my country...
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  • #1,998
  • Jun 6, 2012 10:54pm Jun 6, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting Balhana
Smart buyers like you would've closed their longs as soon as price drops below the cluster, but there are still many buyers who are not smart enough....

One thing we should know about this pattern. When the cluster resolved north, it should be clear bull candle and engulfed quickly south. If it is compressed up and engulfed quickly south, I wouldn't take it. Think about why.
Look at the current EU 1H chart.
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  • #1,999
  • Edited 12:27am Jun 7, 2012 12:06am | Edited 12:27am
Quoting Balhana
Look at the current EU 1H chart.
Look at the current EG 1H chart too. Looks a bit different from the previous EU chart, but I think they are the same. I also think the order-flow behind this pattern is the same as the order-flow behind QM.

EDIT: Does it always work out? OF COURSE NOT! But I'd say it works more often than not.
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  • #2,000
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:04am Jun 7, 2012 3:04am
Short UJ this morning...

Compression leading into supply. Price then formed a M1 QM and H&S as confirmation, similar setup on most of the Yen majors this morning, only had time to review UJ quickly and got in just in time (would have liked to have added on the QM right shoulder).
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