EurAnalysis

i think that stop should be safe good luck

Hey PT are you watching the EJ? How about 99.4 to reshort? Do you think this thing will break out the upper downtrend channel?

G/M everyone. Back on the saddle we go. Should be a very volatile day.

i am away until the trading week has finished. mahogany and afos you guys are right, the market will go up then down or down then up. we trade now not what we think it'll do in the future, we are not here to think/speculate we are and always will be on the outside trying to hitch a ride. i posted a chart earlier showing a simple system using high/low and look what happened and g/u was good. i havent traded dow/wall st today but that looked good as well.anyway happy trading and take care all.

Market talks of offers in G/U at 1.55 and A/U .9880.

I would rather wait until Draghi speaks before making any further trading decisions. However, yes... 99.40 is a good place to short. I'm just not going to jump on it until after Draghi.

If you've been around for enough ECB press conferences, you will know that when Draghi starts to speak, all technicals fly out the window and extreme sentiment drives the market until the dust settles. At the end, we either get a trend reversal or a continuation.

Thanks PT.
Draghi will be speaking one hour from now right?

Morgan Stanley lastest bank to come out with statement that BOE will increase QE by 50 billion GBP tomorrow. This makes 4 major banks. It's either going to happen or it's a buy the rumor, sell the news event.

This afternoon. 14:30 GMT. 15:30 in Austria.

more

We have E/U bearish divergence on 15 min TF and 1 hr TF.

Rate Statement at 11:45 GMT
Press Conference at 12:30 GMT

Hello billytt,

thanks for your comment, but, honestly, I did not understand the system in your previous posted chart. If you could explain a little bit more, I would really appreciate. Maybe you did it before several times, so I´m sorry to bother you, but I am qiute new in forex and in this thread.
Good times for you
mahogany

Oh yeah, you're right. I forgot I had change my profile to coincide with my timezone. Thx PT.

Hey Everybody!

So it looks as though today we are going to see some major moves after Draghi speaks.

As PT pointed out, we can either expect a reversal in trend OR a continuation to the downside. I see the latter happening for a few very important reasons.

The following is an article from Weiss Research, these guys have been pretty spot on with most major financial market events, and I've been following their research for about 4-5 years now.

Enjoy!

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/count...49799?FIELD9=2

The countdown to the next Lehman-type event has begun ...


May 25, 2012 — the first major shock: Bankia, one of Spain's largest banking conglomerates, reveals it needs an additional $23.8 billion to cover massive losses — money which the Spanish government simply does not have.
Result: Major bank runs, already under way in Greece and Spain, accelerate.


May 29 — the last nail in Spain's coffin: Retail sales plunge 9.8%.
Result: This landmark event is expected to drive the country's 24.4% unemployment rate to unheard-of levels.


May 30 — a new, unexpected element to the crisis: The world's biggest trade credit insurer suspends all new coverage for anyone shipping goods to Greece.
Result: Key sectors of the Greek economy could be paralyzed, making it virtually impossible for Greece to meet its debt payments — despite all its bailouts.


June 1 (this past Friday) — the next big shock: the worst U.S. job numbers in a year.
Result: Suddenly, global investors begin to recognize what we've been saying all along — that this year's U.S. "recovery" is a mirage.
The Dow plunges 275 points. Gold explodes by $60 per ounce. And the entire notion that the U.S. is a "safe haven" instantly evaporates.
Meanwhile, analysts estimate that, even without any further decline in its banking crisis, Spain could need a bailout of up to €450 billion ($560 billion), virtually wiping out Europe's available bailout funds in one fell swoop.
And that's not the worst-case scenario! In the midst of a banking panic and the resulting economic collapse, Spain could become a bottomless pit for which even $1 trillion would not suffice.


June 6 (the day after tomorrow) — The European Central Bank (ECB) meets in Frankfurt: They're supposedly to decide what to do with interest rates, but more importantly, to come up with a scheme that somehow averts an all-out run on European banks.
Can they come up with a scheme to stem the flood of withdrawals? Perhaps momentarily. But here too, the dike has already been breached.
In fact, just in the first three months of the year, Spanish banks suffered net withdrawals of $121 billion.
And that was before the May 25th announcement of Bankia's huge losses — a major blow to confidence of savers, prompting an even greater run on Spanish banks.
Exactly how much money are European savers pulling out of their banks in the wake of the latest upheavals? We'll find out on ...


June 11, precisely one week from today — That's when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issues its first report on European bank deposits since the latest phase of the crisis began to heat up.
So brace yourself! The IMF report could be a shocker, revealing massive withdrawals already under way ... prompting even more bank runs ... and making it virtually impossible for the ECB to stop the panic.


June 17 — Greeks go back to the polls.
If Greece's anti-bailout leftist party wins, it sets off a rapid chain of events that culminate in the collapse of the euro zone.
And even if the pro-bailout centrist party somehow prevails, the chances that Greece will fulfill the Draconian terms of the European bailout are slim to nil.
When Does the Crisis Reach Critical Mass?


When Will It Precipitate a Lehman-Type Disaster?

It's when the risk of still another, even more grandiose bailout is — or is perceived to be — far greater than the risk of the next big failure.

It's when the authorities convince themselves they've built a strong enough firewall around the next failure that they can prevent the contagion from spreading.

It's when the people who are asked to finance the bailouts throw up their arms in disgust and shout "Enough!"

As I showed you here last week, that's precisely what happened in 2008 when Lehman went down. (See "Bank runs spreading across Europe! What next?")

And it's what's beginning to happen again now in Europe. In Germany, the primary source of bailout funds, the public outcry against more rescue money for Greece or Spain is deafening. And throughout Europe, leaders are now talking far more seriously about letting Greece fail — much like U.S. authorities let Lehman fail four years ago.

Great article but highly speculative. True Europe is in deep deep kaka, but never underestimate the ability of Central bankers to pull a rabbit out of a hat to at least kick the can a bit further down the road. Draghi has shown an ability to keep the ball in play so far.

Just to be clear... when I said trend reversal, I meant a short term one. We all know where this pair is heading in the medium term, and it's certainly not up. However, a temporary shift in risk appetite could take us as high as 1.2810 before the next plunge. I doubt it will go that high (1.2620 is more likely), but we have to remain open to the possibility.

You're right. This is speculative, and based more on fundamentals if anything.

We could definitely go higher in the short term, depending on what they are able to pull off!

In your opinion, should today's meetings be the catalyst which takes us either higher or lower, at least for the time being?

PT. If I read your analysis correctly, In the event of an surprise rate cut today, that would be Euro positive? At least temporary. No rate cut euro negative?