Silver looks so juicy..
- #652,282
- Jun 5, 2012 11:46pm Jun 5, 2012 11:46pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2005 | 2,784 Posts
So you are saying that after the GDP and the ECB news it might still follow the bearish trend?
crazy uh? i know
- #652,283
- Jun 5, 2012 11:47pm Jun 5, 2012 11:47pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2012 | 1,121 Posts
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
- #652,291
- Edited 12:29am Jun 6, 2012 12:26am | Edited 12:29am
- | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Charting the trades ... | 919 Posts
Morning guys.
As usual, I'm a natural born bear (should've learned my lesson yesterday, when I barely broke even, but hey ... ). The current channel downwards hasn't been broken, and we're expecting a lot more action to happen. London opening will give us the direction.
Regarding S/R zone, they are as following : 1.2623 is the previous 2012 low and remains important, now as resistance. Attempts to rise above this line have been . Below, 1.2587 is a clear bottom on the weekly charts but is only minor resistance now.
The round number of 1.25 is of psychological importance, and it is stronger now as resistance. 1.2460 is minor support/resistance after stopping a euro rally in June 2012.
1.24. It provided some resistance in June 2010 and is now minor support. 1.2286 is a new minor line of support after being the swing low in June 2012.
Further below, 1.2330 is another historical line after being the trough following the global financial meltdown in 2008. 1.22 is minor support below, after serving as such in June 2010.
1.2144 is already a very strong line on the downside: it was a clear separator two years ago, when Greece received its first bailout. The round number of 1.20 is of course highly important in the psychological level.
Regarding the news, my view is as follows :
1. Revised GDP: Wednesday, 9:00. Also in this indicator, German growth prevented a downfall. The initial read of 0% – no change, will probably be confirmed now, after German growth was confirmed at a rise of 0.5% in Q1 2012.
2. German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 10:00. This manufacturing related indicator is more important, even though it’s also volatile. German output leaped by 2.8% in March and will likely slide a bit lower now, by 0.9%.
3. Rate decision: Wednesday, decision at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. Mario Draghi hinted that the ECB is in no rush for any action. Regarding the LTROs, Draghi said that more time is needed to asses their impact, so a third round of LTRO isn’t likely to be announced in June’s meeting. A rate cut is certainly desired for the struggling European economies. Recent PMI data was very worrying, even for Germany. Nevertheless, there are higher chances that the ECB will not cut the rates below the historic low of 1% as headline inflation is still above the 2% target. In the previous press conference, Draghi was relatively optimistic regarding a recovery in the second half of the year. His words will probably not suffice this time. In the current situation, a rate cut will be positive for the euro. The ECB might cut the rates as part of a globally coordinated move by central banks.
Also, take into account looking at the ECB conference, for Mario Draghi is often regarded as a market mover
When he speaks, EU usually shoots up, and if he declares a rate cut, we're gonna see 1.2650 today.
Keep your eyes on the rumour mill (almost got burned yesterday on that), and trade safe. Green pips to ya'll.
LE : All times provided are GMT+0.
As usual, I'm a natural born bear (should've learned my lesson yesterday, when I barely broke even, but hey ... ). The current channel downwards hasn't been broken, and we're expecting a lot more action to happen. London opening will give us the direction.
Regarding S/R zone, they are as following : 1.2623 is the previous 2012 low and remains important, now as resistance. Attempts to rise above this line have been . Below, 1.2587 is a clear bottom on the weekly charts but is only minor resistance now.
The round number of 1.25 is of psychological importance, and it is stronger now as resistance. 1.2460 is minor support/resistance after stopping a euro rally in June 2012.
1.24. It provided some resistance in June 2010 and is now minor support. 1.2286 is a new minor line of support after being the swing low in June 2012.
Further below, 1.2330 is another historical line after being the trough following the global financial meltdown in 2008. 1.22 is minor support below, after serving as such in June 2010.
1.2144 is already a very strong line on the downside: it was a clear separator two years ago, when Greece received its first bailout. The round number of 1.20 is of course highly important in the psychological level.
Regarding the news, my view is as follows :
1. Revised GDP: Wednesday, 9:00. Also in this indicator, German growth prevented a downfall. The initial read of 0% – no change, will probably be confirmed now, after German growth was confirmed at a rise of 0.5% in Q1 2012.
2. German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 10:00. This manufacturing related indicator is more important, even though it’s also volatile. German output leaped by 2.8% in March and will likely slide a bit lower now, by 0.9%.
3. Rate decision: Wednesday, decision at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. Mario Draghi hinted that the ECB is in no rush for any action. Regarding the LTROs, Draghi said that more time is needed to asses their impact, so a third round of LTRO isn’t likely to be announced in June’s meeting. A rate cut is certainly desired for the struggling European economies. Recent PMI data was very worrying, even for Germany. Nevertheless, there are higher chances that the ECB will not cut the rates below the historic low of 1% as headline inflation is still above the 2% target. In the previous press conference, Draghi was relatively optimistic regarding a recovery in the second half of the year. His words will probably not suffice this time. In the current situation, a rate cut will be positive for the euro. The ECB might cut the rates as part of a globally coordinated move by central banks.
Also, take into account looking at the ECB conference, for Mario Draghi is often regarded as a market mover
When he speaks, EU usually shoots up, and if he declares a rate cut, we're gonna see 1.2650 today.Keep your eyes on the rumour mill (almost got burned yesterday on that), and trade safe.
Green pips to ya'll.LE : All times provided are GMT+0.
Please, just slap me around if I'm being silly ...
- #652,292
- Jun 6, 2012 12:30am Jun 6, 2012 12:30am
was forced to cut some and accept loses in order to keep others open. Plus I have some USDCLP waiting (with losses... damn USD going down is killing me!) and they have to be open. I guess whether all my open take their SL or TP or however this turns for me, I'm gonna take a break and study the market better, maybe making one trade at a time.
After all, i'm too new at this. and wasting 600+ in 3 days can't be good for morale, can it?
I have been learning a lot from you guys, sometimes I'm embarrased to say I don't understand much when you...
Now I'm just sitting on my hands to see what happens later today (I'm too chicken to make any new trades b/c I can't make heads or tails as to why the pair is behaving the way it is considering all the bad news around EU).
I've only been doing this for 2 months now... wow... what a humbling experience! Glad this forum exists so I can try to understand what other ppl are doing...
Tunera, would you mind sharing your analysis as to why you think it'll drop to 2280? Man... I could use some good news!!!
