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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #34,461
  • Jun 5, 2012 6:42am Jun 5, 2012 6:42am
We're sitting at the 50% retrace from Fridat's low to yesterday's high. If there is to be a continuation of this down leg, it will occur in the NY session. Futures are about even right now and I don't know how much the RBA statement will impact the US markets. Perhaps somebody with more Fundamental experience can enlighten me here...

I have two shorts going right now, one from Sunday night which is in the red right now and another from last night at 1.2531 and green. If we close the hourly below the 50% FIB line followed by a confirmation candle, I may add to my short position.

Cheers!
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #34,462
  • Jun 5, 2012 6:47am Jun 5, 2012 6:47am
Quoting drzakir123
yes ur right but say if it break 1.2450 then it mean it failed to reach the median line and the implication is price going to reach C level on the pitchfork ie the level of 1.2540 (please refer to the pitchfork chart i posted earlier.)price at the moment at the critical point.i am just watching on the sideline and waiting for PT's fundamental view.
My fundamental view has not changed. The situation in Europe is dire and there is no quick fix. From here forward until Draghi's rate statement and press conference, there is no reason to buy the Euro. The only thing that can take this upwards is more short covering. I don't believe the big boys are ready to cover just yet. Only the nervous shorts will, and that will just make room for fresh shorts to enter the market.... just like last night.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,463
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:00am Jun 5, 2012 7:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
My fundamental view has not changed. The situation in Europe is dire and there is no quick fix. From here forward until Draghi's rate statement and press conference, there is no reason to buy the Euro. The only thing that can take this upwards is more short covering. I don't believe the big boys are ready to cover just yet. Only the nervous shorts will, and that will just make room for fresh shorts to enter the market.... just like last night.
thats very interesting and i should look for the short entries only
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #34,464
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:05am Jun 5, 2012 7:05am
Quoting drzakir123
thats very interesting and i should look for the short entries only
Long entries are good also, but if PT is correct in his assesment of the current Euro situation (which I have no doubt he is), your long entries should be short lived. 20, 30 pips corrections type of thing.

Little quickies are good once in a while
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #34,465
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:07am Jun 5, 2012 7:07am
Quoting Cgb
Long entries are good also, but if PT is correct in his assesment of the current Euro situation (which I have no doubt he is), your long entries should be short lived. 20, 30 pips corrections type of thing.

Little quickies are good once in a while
Agreed for intraday and scalping. For me no because I don't trade intraday. I build positions.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,466
  • Edited 7:33am Jun 5, 2012 7:23am | Edited 7:33am
Quoting Cgb
Long entries are good also, but if PT is correct in his assesment of the current Euro situation (which I have no doubt he is), your long entries should be short lived. 20, 30 pips corrections type of thing.

Little quickies are good once in a while
my experience with these types of entries are proven to be siren songs the reason is the tendency of prices are to the downside and when price move it will caught the trader vicioulsy and very difficult to get out of the market,hence better to trade with the wind at once back,life will be much easier and also i want to make least number of decisions which mean generallly longer time frame and also it keeps once perspective properly oriented.
previously i used to play only 1 and 5 min time frame with the intention of improve my market undertanding,task achieve now i am in for a long haul.the thing i got out is much clearer understanding of myself and that i am slow thinker and sort of laid back and the quality of decision much better if i give more time.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #34,467
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:35am Jun 5, 2012 7:35am
Quoting drzakir123
my experience with these types of entries are proven to be siren songs the reason is the tendency of prices are to the downside and when price move it will caught the trader vicioulsy and very difficult to get out of the market,hence better to trade with the wind at once back,life will be much easier and also i want to make least number of decisions which mean generallly longer time frame and it keeps once perspective properly oriented.
I certainly don't disagree. However there are pullbacks on both an uptend and downtrend, your decision now with the wind in your back is "has the wind changed?". If you maintain your position with a strong believe that it has not changed, it starts to eat into your winning trade and at what point do you say; "Enough!" and close your position? after losing 10%, 20%, 50% of your gains?

So now we find ourselves re-evaluating our position more often after a few 30% lost of gains. We start to doubt our conviction in the direction and more likely than not, find that it has now turned and you're now waiting for a pullback to find an entry and start to believe you've missed the reversal.

Point is, there will always be corrections in any direction. Playing these corrections with small positions is a viable strategy I think.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #34,468
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:42am Jun 5, 2012 7:42am
Is this more BoJ intervention that I'm seeing?
  • #34,469
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:43am Jun 5, 2012 7:43am
Quoting Cgb
I certainly don't disagree. However there are pullbacks on both an uptend and downtrend, your decision now with the wind in your back is "has the wind changed?". If you maintain your position with a strong believe that it has not changed, it starts to eat into your winning trade and at what point do you say; "Enough!" and close your position? after losing 10%, 20%, 50% of your gains?

So now we find ourselves re-evaluating our position more often after a few 30% lost of gains. We start to doubt our conviction in the direction and more...
You make a good point CGB, but I must state that as long as one takes partial profit at first target, then one does not give much back to the market.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,470
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:45am Jun 5, 2012 7:45am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Is this more BoJ intervention that I'm seeing?
No, it is risk sentiment (or short covering). Look at equities.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,471
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:48am Jun 5, 2012 7:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
No, it is risk sentiment (or short covering). Look at equities.
Gotcha. Thanks PT.
  • #34,472
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:48am Jun 5, 2012 7:48am
Quoting Cgb
I certainly don't disagree. However there are pullbacks on both an uptend and downtrend, your decision now with the wind in your back is "has the wind changed?". If you maintain your position with a strong believe that it has not changed, it starts to eat into your winning trade and at what point do you say; "Enough!" and close your position? after losing 10%, 20%, 50% of your gains?

So now we find ourselves re-evaluating our position more often after a few 30% lost of gains. We start to doubt our conviction in the direction and more likely...
i certainly agree with u particularly when one has enough experience of seeing 300 to 400 pips countertrend moves,which makes one a humble person
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #34,473
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:49am Jun 5, 2012 7:49am
Mark Carney and the BOC rate Statement are due at 13:00 GMT.
If the BOC cuts rates or hints at future rate cuts, expect a bit of a USD rally.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,474
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:51am Jun 5, 2012 7:51am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Is this more BoJ intervention that I'm seeing?
Japanese finance minister Azumi speaking to reporters have made numerous statements.
  • #34,475
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:53am Jun 5, 2012 7:53am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Japanese finance minister Azumi speaking to reporters have made numerous statements.

LOL
  • #34,476
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:55am Jun 5, 2012 7:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
Mark Carney and the BOC rate Statement are due at 13:00 GMT.
If the BOC cuts rates or hints at future rate cuts, expect a bit of a USD rally.
Just a couple months(April) ago Carney talked at possible rate increase. Crazy IMO.
  • #34,477
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:59am Jun 5, 2012 7:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
Mark Carney and the BOC rate Statement are due at 13:00 GMT.
If the BOC cuts rates or hints at future rate cuts, expect a bit of a USD rally.
Building permits were a big miss this morning. -5.2% vs -0.3% expected.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #34,478
  • Jun 5, 2012 8:01am Jun 5, 2012 8:01am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Just a couple months(April) ago Carney talked at possible rate increase. Crazy IMO.

Bank of Canada is bullish for possible rate increase and state rate hike may become appropriate to extent expansion and excess supply absorbed
  • #34,479
  • Jun 5, 2012 8:04am Jun 5, 2012 8:04am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Bank of Canada is bullish for possible rate increase.
I don't think so.. That was before this mess started looking bad. Canada depends on the US to be strong. Weak US = weaker Canada.

I expect him to pull back from a rate increase and probably sit on sidelines... slight possibility of a rate cut. They have room to do it and probably will if the ECB cuts too.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,480
  • Jun 5, 2012 8:06am Jun 5, 2012 8:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't think so.. That was before this mess started looking bad. Canada depends on the US to be strong. Weak US = weaker Canada.

I expect him to pull back from a rate increase and probably sit on sidelines... slight possibility of a rate cut. They have room to do it and probably will if the ECB cuts too.
I agree but he's been bullish for awhile now and it doesn't make sense to me.
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